News linked to both this project and an event.
trader Killa has posted that current Bitcoin price action is highly similar to 2023. At that time, after BTC broke out of its consolidation range and posted a higher weekly high, it did not fall back below the previous high, but instead went on to form a higher low. If a similar pattern plays out this time, BTC may hold the upper boundary of its previous range, and the price may not fall back to the previous $74,000 low, but instead bottom out and rebound at a higher level. The current trend remains clearly bullish.
Trader Killa posted that in a bull market, traders should seize the opportunity to go long when prices dip within an established range. However, because the market previously went through a bear market full of fake breakouts, many traders still habitually view every rebound as a bull trap. Bitcoin's trading range and bottom structure have already formed, with the area around $80,000 being a key zone. Although Bitcoin may still pull back again to sweep liquidity, it could ultimately just head higher directly, causing traders who keep waiting for lower prices to miss the move. Traders should follow the market trend rather than stubbornly clinging to a bearish scenario.
Odaily reports: Bitfinex stated that despite repeated downward pressure, Bitcoin has continued to hold the lower end of its range, and BTC is expected to remain range-bound between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on October 28. If the price tests the upper boundary of the range, short-term traders taking profits could introduce some selling pressure.On the market data front, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $526.7 million on October 19, indicating somewhat stronger spot demand, but BTC price is still fluctuating narrowly between $81,724 and $83,470 and remains below the average cost basis of ETF investors at $84,333. Meanwhile, futures open interest on major exchanges has rebounded 4.2% from its October 12 low to 645,410 BTC, and funding rates are normalizing, suggesting leveraged long positions have recovered somewhat.In the options market, notional open interest for options expiring on October 23 stands at $1.23 billion, with the max pain point at approximately $82,000; monthly options expiring on October 30 total $11.2 billion, with a max pain point of $76,000. On-chain data shows that the $82,224 cost basis range added approximately 145,000 BTC, while the $80,353 cost basis range shed about 62,000 BTC, indicating some holdings are migrating toward higher cost basis ranges. The short-term holder SOPR is approximately 1.003, and the share of profitable supply is around 70%.
QCP's latest market analysis indicates that Bitcoin has maintained resilience within a narrow $80,000–$83,000 range throughout the past week, establishing firm support at the $80,000 level, which contrasts with tech stocks remaining under persistent pressure. From a macro perspective, despite robust inflation data, safe-haven demand has driven long-dated US Treasuries higher, while comments from Federal Reserve officials have tempered rate hike expectations. The subsequent pullback in Treasury yields has provided support for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Capital flows are showing signs of rotation from crowded artificial intelligence segments, such as semiconductors, into defensive sectors like healthcare and banking; however, there remains no clear evidence of large-scale direct inflows into cryptocurrency markets.
analyst Ali has noted that after the SUI weekly chart previously confirmed a macro buy signal, it rebounded from the bottom of the channel and has now reclaimed the mid-range around $1. Following this breakout above resistance, he is watching whether SUI's rally can continue and advance further toward the upper channel level near $1.40.
Wintermute released its weekly market report, as the Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12-0 on September 21 to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%. Sixteen officials project at least one more rate hike this year, with inflation not expected to return to the 2% target until 2029. Two key catalysts previously monitored by the market—the FOMC rate decision and the CLARITY Act—have both materialized: the CLARITY Act failed to advance in the Senate (49-50 vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold), prompting the SEC and CFTC to immediately state that they would establish crypto regulatory frameworks under their current authority. The market adjusted for only a single trading session before reclaiming its losses. BTC traded between $75,000 and $81,000 this week, closing at $81,159—the first time since last November it has breached the 50-week moving average; ETH gained 6.7%, trading in the $2,350–$2,600 range. Regarding ETF capital flows, net outflows totaled $746 million from Tuesday to Wednesday, partially reversed by $593 million in inflows from Thursday to Friday, resulting in a five-day net outflow of approximately $6 million. Outflows triggered by the CLARITY Act were nearly fully offset within 48 hours. At the start of this week, both BTC and ETH broke above the range resistance ahead of the U.S. equity market open. Fueled by approximately $250 million in short liquidations, BTC briefly surged to $86,000, setting an eight-month high. Wintermute’s analysis suggests:
analyst Killa posted on X that he plans to hedge 50% of his Bitcoin exposure in the $89,000 to $94,000 range, which would be his first short in months. Killa stated that, as he said 1 to 3 days ago, he previously had no intention of shorting the same high that had been consolidating below it; if the price holds firmly above $97,000, this hedging strategy will be invalidated.
Odaily News, glassnode report: The short squeeze in mid-August drove Bitcoin's rebound, pushing it above $80,000 on August 27. However, the price subsequently encountered resistance in the long-term supply zone above, retreating to around $76,000 and triggering a series of long liquidations. Currently, the $83,000-$86,000 range has accumulated a large number of potential short liquidation positions, while the $60,000-$63,000 zone below holds undigested long liquidation clusters, leaving Bitcoin sandwiched between the two.On-chain data shows that when Bitcoin traded near $78,000 in May this year, approximately 65% of the supply was in profit. When the price returned to the same level at the end of August, that proportion had risen to 68%. The summer redistribution of coins has pushed short-term holders' cost basis to around $71,000, and at this same price level, more profitable coins are now activated, increasing potential selling pressure. Combining cost basis and coin distribution, $62,000-$65,000 serves as an accumulation support zone, while $83,000-$86,000 represents a concentrated supply zone for long-term holders.During the rebound, the 7-day average net inflow for US spot Bitcoin ETFs peaked at $290 million per day, but secondary market daily trading volume remained at around $3 billion, significantly lower than the previous expansion phase. Meanwhile, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury briefly fell to 4.6% following the Treasury's buyback announcement on August 19, but returned to 4.8% in just 8 trading days, hitting a new cycle high.In the options market, short-term optimism has cooled while long-term options demand persists. Open interest for Deribit and IBIT options expiring on September 25 stands at approximately $14 billion, with a substantial portion of positions concentrated above $80,000, which could serve as an important volatility and positioning anchor in the coming weeks. Until the supply above $83,000-$86,000 is absorbed, Bitcoin will continue to trade in a range, with $62,000-$65,000 serving as the primary downside reference zone.
Odaily News, Garrett Jin, proxy for the "BTC OG Insider Whale," analyzed that Bitcoin's latest breakout above $70,000 was driven by multiple bullish factors, including the U.S. Treasury's expanded bond buybacks, the SEC's proposed crypto asset regulatory framework, and the White House crypto summit. The current price has entered a dense overhead supply zone ranging from the mid-$60,000s to the low $80,000s, with the first resistance layer already showing signs of weakening.Garrett Jin pointed out that the significant accumulation of new cost basis in the mid-$60,000 area over the past two months has provided underlying support for this breakout. While the short-squeeze triggered by short liquidations could temporarily push Bitcoin above $80,000 in the near term, the $80,000 to $82,500 range is a critical resistance zone to watch, and the short-squeeze momentum is unlikely to persist. If the market can effectively absorb supply below $80,000 before a breakout, it would be more conducive to a healthier subsequent trend.On the same day, SK Hynix announced South Korea's largest-ever stock buyback and cancellation plan, committing to return at least 50% of its projected free cash flow through 2027 to shareholders. Its shares surged over 10% at one point, triggering a buy-side circuit breaker on South Korea's KOSPI index. Analysts believe this move could alleviate market concerns over declining risk appetite for Korean semiconductor stocks, but it cannot alter the cyclical trajectory of the memory chip industry itself.
According to 10x Research analysis, Bitcoin trading volume has contracted significantly to levels far below historical peaks, and prices have entered the narrowest trading range in months; historically, such patterns often indicate an imminent directional breakout. Implied volatility in the options market has fallen to rare lows, ETF inflows remain sluggish, stablecoins continue to experience net outflows, and MicroStrategy has even shifted to net selling for four consecutive weeks. Considering both the macroeconomic background and technicals, the market is currently in a "calm before the breakout" phase, and the directional choice may become clear within this week.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ noted that data shows the Ethereum Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) on the Binance platform has fallen back to approximately -0.35, entering a range that has historically corresponded to significant price bottoms multiple times. This indicator reflects the unrealized profit/loss status of specific holding groups; the current negative value indicates that relevant Ethereum holdings are overall in a state of relatively deep unrealized losses.
比特币在 6.2 万至 6.6 万美元区间震荡数周，ETF 资金流入与矿工及机构抛售形成抵消，周三美国 CPI 数据或成突破催化剂。
Well-known trader Killa stated that Bitcoin remains in a narrow range consolidation phase in the short term, with $65,300 being the current key threshold.
Odaily News Crypto analyst Killa posted on X, stating that as BTC enters a new monthly cycle, a relatively clear bearish narrative has formed in the market. Therefore, the likelihood of an upward reaction at the start of the month is relatively high. The analyst noted that BTC is currently still in a consolidation range and is near the bear market low. Two possible scenarios may follow: first, a further decline breaking below $57,000 to complete the final pullback; second, an upward breakout starting this month, continuing the range-bound trend. Personally, the analyst leans toward BTC seeing an upward reaction of about 2%–4% at the start of the month, but does not rule out the possibility of continued downside afterward.
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' research report on July 29 pointed out that the 5-year historical percentile of the total leverage ratio of global accounts remains at the 93rd percentile, the hedge fund long-short ratio has decreased from 5.7 times to 3.2 times, and deleveraging progress exceeds 90%. In July, net inflows into US stock funds were $34 billion, marking the third highest level for the same period in nearly 20 years. The S&P 500 fell below the short-term trigger level of 7,453 points; if it continues to decline, it will trigger concentrated CTA selling. Goldman Sachs estimates that systematic strategies hold approximately $196.3 billion in US stock long positions, with CTA positions at the 44th percentile. Goldman Sachs judges that US stocks are unlikely to have a trending market in August, with overall performance dominated by range-bound oscillation. Buybacks are the most certain buying support in August; currently, about 31% of S&P 500 constituents are in the buyback window, and it is expected that over 90% of companies will end the quiet period by mid-August. However, seasonal capital outflows, quantitative selling, and conservative institutional positions jointly suppress upward space. Goldman Sachs recommends reverse dispersion strategies and IWM put options as hedging tools.
据 QCP Group 发布的市场报告，当前市场整体处于风险规避状态。受美伊紧张局势升级影响，布伦特原油突破每桶 85 美元，创一个月新高，周涨幅超 10%；美股半导体板块领跌，市场担忧超大规模云厂商或削减 AI 基础设施支出，资金转向防御性板块与能源板块。 加密市场方面，BTC 持续在 63,000 至 65,000 美元区间内窄幅整理，现报 64,100 美元附近，7 月 17 日曾短暂跌至 62,924 美元低点；ETH 表现持续弱于 BTC，现报 1,832 美元，此前短暂突破 1,900 美元后回落，关键阻力位在 1,847 美元，多头需收复 200 日均线（约 2,400 美元）方可改善整体结构。 资金面出现积极信号，美国现货比特币 ETF 连续四日录得净流入，扭转此前创纪录的 80 亿美元净流出趋势。期权市场方面，已实现波动率持续压缩，前端期权定价相对低廉，做市商在 7 月 28 至 29 日 FOMC 会议前处于 Gamma 空头状态，若霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势缓和，上行加速风险不容忽视。
Analyst Ali stated on X platform that the SpaceX stock price has now hit the key resistance level of $165, which is considered the top of its channel. As long as the $165 level is not broken effectively, the short-term trend remains susceptible to a pullback, with the price potentially falling to $157, or even further down to the channel support around $149.Ali added that if the price can effectively break and hold above $165, it would invalidate the current bearish structure and could open up room for an upward move, targeting the $180 level.
CryptoQuant analyst MorenoDV_ pointed out in a post that the current reading of the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Profit/Loss model has fallen into the range commonly seen during historical bottoms, indicating the market is undergoing a deeper internal cleanup. However, the analyst emphasized that this does not mean the bottom has been confirmed—the 365-day moving average needs to decline further to prove that the market's long-term profit structure has been fully reset, rather than being merely a short-term oversold reaction. Although a brief rebound triggered by a short squeeze may occur currently, if the profit/loss ratio fails to rebuild sustainably, it should not be regarded as a signal of structural recovery. Overall, signs of BTC internal cleanup are emerging, but historical patterns indicate the market may still need to endure more pressure before fully exiting this bear market.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler stated that Bitcoin weakened rapidly after the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at 3.50%-3.75% and released a relatively hawkish dot plot, falling below the $64,000 mark and dropping about 4% from its intraday high.This meeting marked the Fed's fourth consecutive pause, but the latest dot plot indicates a significant shift towards a hawkish policy path: several officials now expect the possibility of further rate hikes this year, further diminishing the market's pricing of "rate cut expectations." Analysts believe this change has a greater impact than the rate decision itself, directly suppressing risk asset valuations.Market data shows that Bitcoin initially surged to around $66,400 following the announcement, before quickly reversing downward amid heavy selling pressure, hitting a low of approximately $63,870. Trading volume notably expanded, indicating active selling-driven declines. The price is currently consolidating near the lower end of the $63,600–$64,000 range, with no significant inbound capital from bargain hunting.In stark contrast is gold's performance. Spot gold rapidly recovered after briefly dipping to around $4,220, climbing back above the $4,300 level to trade near $4,321, demonstrating strong defensive attributes and capital absorption capacity. Even against a backdrop of easing geopolitical risks, safe-haven demand remains resilient.Market participants pointed out that the core divergence in this round of reaction lies in the repricing of asset attributes: gold completed a swift recovery under the same macroeconomic shock, while Bitcoin failed to reclaim the key level of $64,000, highlighting the higher sensitivity of risk assets to "higher-for-longer interest rates."Overall, the market is transitioning from a phase of "loose expectations supporting risk assets" to one of "hawkish path suppressing valuations," with short-term risk appetite clearly cooling. The key observation point is whether Bitcoin can re-enter the $64,000–$65,000 range with volume confirming stability; otherwise, a weak consolidation structure may persist.
Odaily News Trader Ansem posted that Warsh and a hawkish FOMC could pressure risk assets, anticipating a widespread decline in risk assets tomorrow, while BTC has already shown relative weakness compared to most assets. He believes that BTC's multi-timeframe failure to break through weekly resistance could lead to a retest of range lows.