Goldman Sachs: US Stocks Range-Bound in August, Deleveraging Nearing End

According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' research report on July 29 pointed out that the 5-year historical percentile of the total leverage ratio of global accounts remains at the 93rd percentile, the hedge fund long-short ratio has decreased from 5.7 times to 3.2 times, and deleveraging progress exceeds 90%. In July, net inflows into US stock funds were $34 billion, marking the third highest level for the same period in nearly 20 years. The S&P 500 fell below the short-term trigger level of 7,453 points; if it continues to decline, it will trigger concentrated CTA selling. Goldman Sachs estimates that systematic strategies hold approximately $196.3 billion in US stock long positions, with CTA positions at the 44th percentile. Goldman Sachs judges that US stocks are unlikely to have a trending market in August, with overall performance dominated by range-bound oscillation. Buybacks are the most certain buying support in August; currently, about 31% of S&P 500 constituents are in the buyback window, and it is expected that over 90% of companies will end the quiet period by mid-August. However, seasonal capital outflows, quantitative selling, and conservative institutional positions jointly suppress upward space. Goldman Sachs recommends reverse dispersion strategies and IWM put options as hedging tools.