News linked to both this project and an event.
ahead of the release of the April US CPI data, the crypto market rally has temporarily stalled. Bitcoin has been oscillating within the $80,000 to $82,000 range recently, failing to break out effectively since last Wednesday. Market participants believe that while capital flows still point to the potential for a future breakout, inflation and macroeconomic risks are weighing on risk appetite.The United States will release the April Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 8:30 PM Beijing time tonight. According to FactSet data, the market expects April CPI to rise 3.7% year-over-year, up from 3.3% in March. If this forecast materializes, it would mark the largest increase since January 2024 and be significantly higher than the average of 2.7% over the past 12 months. Core CPI is expected to rise 2.7% year-over-year, up from the previous 2.6%.Analysts are concerned that against a backdrop of high oil prices and Trump's characterization of the US-Iran ceasefire as "extremely fragile," inflation data exceeding expectations could further trigger risk-off sentiment in the markets, dragging down risk asset performance.Lukman Otunuga, Head of Market Research at FXTM, stated that the market is entering a sensitive phase where geopolitical risks, inflation concerns, and central bank expectations are intertwined. High oil prices, uncertainties surrounding the Iran situation, and key US economic data could drive increased volatility in commodities, currencies, and global stock markets.Beyond macroeconomic factors, XRP and SOL are also approaching key supply zones again. XRP tested $1.50 today, but this level has repeatedly failed to be breached since February this year; SOL is once again nearing the resistance zone around $97.Meanwhile, institutional interest in related assets is heating up. The US spot XRP ETF recorded net inflows of $25.8 million on Monday, the highest since January 5th. Bitcoin and Solana ETFs also maintained net capital inflows, while the Ethereum ETF saw net outflows of $16.9 million. (CoinDesk)
investment bank TD Cowen on Thursday raised its price target for Strategy (MSTR) to $395 from $385, believing the market underestimates the capital efficiency of the company’s bitcoin accumulation strategy following its increased issuance of STRC perpetual preferred stock. Analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete indicated that the new target still implies over 110% upside from Strategy’s Wednesday closing price of $186.82.The analysis notes that Strategy is gradually reducing common equity financing and increasingly relying on STRC perpetual preferred stock, which yields 11.5%, to fund bitcoin purchases. STRC is also a core component of Michael Saylor’s “42/42 plan,” which aims to raise $42 billion each through equity and fixed-income instruments over three years.TD Cowen believes the market underestimates the effect of the STRC structure on boosting “BTC Yield,” a metric measuring the company’s growth in bitcoin holdings per fully diluted share. The report raised its BTC Yield forecast for Strategy’s fiscal 2026 to 18.2% from 16.7%, and for 2027 to 9.6% from 5.4%. Additionally, analysts argue that concerns about Strategy being a “perpetual dilution machine” are exaggerated. The company’s annual preferred stock dividend payments, currently around $1.5 billion, represent only about 2.2% of the value of its 818,334 BTC reserve.In TD Cowen’s base case scenario, bitcoin is expected to reach $140,000 by the end of 2026. In a bull case, bitcoin could rise to $175,000, with Strategy potentially purchasing over $5 billion in bitcoin per quarter. (The Block)
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.
According to FinanceFeeds, analysts note that Ethereum (ETH) has recently rebounded from the $2,200 support level—a confluence zone aligning with the pre-end-of-March resistance level, the lower Bollinger Band on the daily chart, and the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the upward impulse wave i. Price is now approaching the key resistance level at $2,470—the endpoint of the prior upward impulse wave i. The report states that, given the strong momentum of the active wave (iii) and the broader three-wave structure—as well as the overall bullish sentiment across the crypto market—if ETH breaks above the $2,470 resistance, it is expected to advance toward the next resistance level at $2,600.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr posted on X, stating that based on the Adjusted Realized Price Bands model calibrated to Bitcoin's current circulating supply, a drop to the key $59,000 range is required for a true mid-to-long term bottoming process to begin. Bottoming is not a short-term process and will not be completed within one to two weeks; the base case scenario estimates it will take approximately six months.Axel Adler Jr emphasized that while Bitcoin has recently seen some increase in price, what truly drives market stabilization is not sentiment recovery or a local rebound, but the return of long-term genuine demand. That is, when the market begins to price in future value again and spot buying continues to recover, the bottom may be truly established.
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, T. Rowe Price has filed its third amended application for an Active Crypto ETF, with the ticker symbol $TOKN and an expense ratio of 75 basis points. Per its disclosures, the product may launch shortly. Eric Balchunas noted that T. Rowe Price is currently the largest active management firm seeking to bring active management capabilities into this space.
crypto analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that by combining three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective is as follows: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level above BTC’s current price. This level simultaneously features high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV. When the price pushes upward from this point, market makers' dynamic hedging tends to create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers' hedging adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + the magnitude of positive Gamma) makes $80,000 a "tough nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC) at this level, the market could quickly shift from being suppressed to an "amplified volatility" mode.
Bitcoin is once again approaching the $80,000 mark. Market analysis suggests that this level has become a key resistance point to test the strength of the current rebound. On the capital front, continued institutional inflows are providing support. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for six consecutive days, while Ethereum spot ETFs have also seen inflows for nine straight days, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively added approximately 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly increase since 2013, and exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest point in seven years.In terms of on-chain data, Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has reclaimed the "Realized Price" (approximately $78,100). However, the cost basis for short-term holders sits around $80,100, forming a direct pressure zone. Should the price reach this range, over 54% of short-term investors would be in profit, a scenario historically associated with the peak of a rebound phase. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating a significant short position. Given the ongoing improvement in spot demand, this could provide short-squeeze momentum for a subsequent upward move.In summary, while the capital structure and market resilience have improved, the $80,000 level remains a key watershed. The market has yet to confirm whether it can transition from a resistance level to a support level. (The Block)
According to on-chain analytics platform Arkham (@arkham), BlackRock purchased approximately $900 million worth of Bitcoin within a single week. The estimated average cost basis for its ETF clients is currently around $87,000.
Odaily News According to analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, investors are shifting their focus to new businesses such as prediction markets, which are also key drivers for the next phase of growth for Coinbase and Robinhood. The analysts currently maintain an "Overweight" rating for both exchanges and have raised their price targets to $250 and $110, respectively. They believe that as product expansion (including prediction markets, tokenization, and access to private markets) progresses, the medium-to-long-term growth prospects for both companies will improve. (CoinDesk)
RaveDAO responded to recent market concerns regarding RAVE’s price volatility, denying that the team has participated in or driven the token’s price movements and labeling related rumors as false. The DAO emphasized its ongoing commitment to project development. RaveDAO stated that its current strategy is long-term oriented, with plans to enhance incentive alignment between the team and the community through mechanism design—including exploring token lock-up models triggered by price or performance metrics. The team also disclosed that, per its Token Release Schedule (TRS), it will sell portions of already-unlocked tokens at appropriate times to fund operational expenses, global hiring, marketing initiatives, and strategic acquisitions. This statement implies an expectation of sustained selling pressure. Additionally, RaveDAO confirmed its continued allocation of a portion of revenues to public welfare: it has pledged to donate 20% of event profits and a portion of future operational profits to charitable causes. The project reiterated that its core objective is to build an on-chain entertainment and music ecosystem and drive Web3 user growth—not short-term price performance.
Odaily News According to a post by analyst Axel Adler Jr on platform X, the average entry price for US Bitcoin ETF holders is $74,000. BTC has already reached this price level, and its performance here will determine the next move.
According to CoinDesk, in Q1 2026, the Ethereum-to-Bitcoin price ratio (ETH/BTC) rebounded to 0.0313—the highest level in three months—indicating an overall recovery in the crypto market. The Ethereum network added 284,000 new users, an 82% year-on-year increase; transaction volume rose to 200.4 million; and stablecoin supply surpassed $180 billion, accounting for approximately 60% of the global market. Analysts noted that if the ETH/BTC ratio closes weekly above 0.035, it would signal sustained capital inflows into Ethereum and other high-risk assets. Currently, ETH’s price remains down more than 50% from its 52-week high. Bitcoin’s price has held above $74,000, and total inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have exceeded $56 billion, providing long-term market support.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), the suspected ARIA controller sold 45.64 million ARIA tokens in bulk today at dawn via eight wallets, receiving 5.42 million USDT in return—the average sale price was $0.12. This large-scale sell-off caused ARIA’s price to plummet from $1.01 to $0.09, a 91% decline, and its circulating market cap dropped from $315 million to $38.5 million. The aforementioned 45.64 million ARIA tokens were withdrawn from Gate onto the blockchain three weeks ago.
According to Cointelegraph, Bitcoin’s price broke above $73,000 on Friday, driven by U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data that came in below market expectations. The data showed that the U.S. energy index rose 10.9% in March, with gasoline prices surging 21.2% month-on-month—the largest monthly increase since 1967—and becoming the primary driver of CPI growth. Despite the sharp rise in energy prices, overall CPI was still 0.1% lower than expected. Traders are focusing on Bitcoin’s near-term resistance levels, particularly the liquidity zone around $74,000. Expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts remain low, a view already widely shared by the market.
Crypto analyst Ali published a detailed analysis on X, arguing that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has hit its bottom, market participants should focus on whether the current volatility represents a “generation-defining entry opportunity.” Based on long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution metrics, Ali delineates the core “value range” for this cycle. On the support side, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a significant concentration of coins in the $63,111–$70,685 range, forming the current primary support zone; if price breaks below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line from the past decade (approximately $56,000–$60,000), a level historically associated with accumulation phases preceding major rallies.