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Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.
Analysis: BTC’s Rally Stalls Amid Japanese Inflation Data and Iran War-Driven Market Risk Aversion
According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market weakened overall on Friday, with BTC hovering near $77,800—its upward momentum since Wednesday’s rally from $65,000 notably slowing. ETH traded at $2,300, down approximately 0.8% over the past 24 hours, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stems primarily from two sources: First, Japan’s March Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.1% year-on-year—above expectations—and core inflation accelerated, raising market expectations that the Bank of Japan may signal an interest rate hike at its next policy meeting; a stronger yen could trigger unwinding of global risk-asset carry trades. Second, the ongoing Iran conflict continues disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude futures have surged over 40% since the outbreak of hostilities, reaching $96 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Defense warned that mine clearance will take at least six months, implying persistent global inflationary pressures and further constraining the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates.
T. Rowe Price Submits Third Amendment to Active Crypto ETF Filing
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, T. Rowe Price has filed its third amended application for an Active Crypto ETF, with the ticker symbol $TOKN and an expense ratio of 75 basis points. Per its disclosures, the product may launch shortly. Eric Balchunas noted that T. Rowe Price is currently the largest active management firm seeking to bring active management capabilities into this space.
Analyst: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level for BTC. If it breaks $82,000, it could enter an amplified volatility range.
crypto analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that by combining three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective is as follows: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level above BTC’s current price. This level simultaneously features high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV. When the price pushes upward from this point, market makers' dynamic hedging tends to create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers' hedging adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + the magnitude of positive Gamma) makes $80,000 a "tough nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC) at this level, the market could quickly shift from being suppressed to an "amplified volatility" mode.
Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches Key $80,000 Level, Institutional Funds and Whale Buying Provide Support, but Breakthrough Still Awaits Confirmation
Bitcoin is once again approaching the $80,000 mark. Market analysis suggests that this level has become a key resistance point to test the strength of the current rebound. On the capital front, continued institutional inflows are providing support. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for six consecutive days, while Ethereum spot ETFs have also seen inflows for nine straight days, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively added approximately 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly increase since 2013, and exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest point in seven years.In terms of on-chain data, Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has reclaimed the "Realized Price" (approximately $78,100). However, the cost basis for short-term holders sits around $80,100, forming a direct pressure zone. Should the price reach this range, over 54% of short-term investors would be in profit, a scenario historically associated with the peak of a rebound phase. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating a significant short position. Given the ongoing improvement in spot demand, this could provide short-squeeze momentum for a subsequent upward move.In summary, while the capital structure and market resilience have improved, the $80,000 level remains a key watershed. The market has yet to confirm whether it can transition from a resistance level to a support level. (The Block)
BlackRock Buys $900 Million Worth of Bitcoin in One Week; ETF Clients’ Average Purchase Price Around $87,000
According to on-chain analytics platform Arkham (@arkham), BlackRock purchased approximately $900 million worth of Bitcoin within a single week. The estimated average cost basis for its ETF clients is currently around $87,000.
Cantor Bullish on Coinbase and Robinhood, Raises Price Targets, Predicts Market-Driven New Growth Cycle
Odaily News According to analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald, investors are shifting their focus to new businesses such as prediction markets, which are also key drivers for the next phase of growth for Coinbase and Robinhood. The analysts currently maintain an "Overweight" rating for both exchanges and have raised their price targets to $250 and $110, respectively. They believe that as product expansion (including prediction markets, tokenization, and access to private markets) progresses, the medium-to-long-term growth prospects for both companies will improve. (CoinDesk)
RaveDAO Responds to Market Manipulation Allegations: Denies Controlling Price Trends, Plans Token Sales at Opportune Times
RaveDAO responded to recent market concerns regarding RAVE’s price volatility, denying that the team has participated in or driven the token’s price movements and labeling related rumors as false. The DAO emphasized its ongoing commitment to project development. RaveDAO stated that its current strategy is long-term oriented, with plans to enhance incentive alignment between the team and the community through mechanism design—including exploring token lock-up models triggered by price or performance metrics. The team also disclosed that, per its Token Release Schedule (TRS), it will sell portions of already-unlocked tokens at appropriate times to fund operational expenses, global hiring, marketing initiatives, and strategic acquisitions. This statement implies an expectation of sustained selling pressure. Additionally, RaveDAO confirmed its continued allocation of a portion of revenues to public welfare: it has pledged to donate 20% of event profits and a portion of future operational profits to charitable causes. The project reiterated that its core objective is to build an on-chain entertainment and music ecosystem and drive Web3 user growth—not short-term price performance.
Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.
Etherealize Raises Long-Term ETH Price Target to $250,000
Odaily News Etherealize has released its latest report, adjusting the long-term price expectation for Ethereum (ETH) to $250,000.This prediction is based on a core assumption: if ETH can capture a "monetary premium" similar to gold and Bitcoin, securing a place in the approximately $31 trillion store-of-value market, its price could reach this level.The report argues that ETH possesses unique historical attributes, serving not only as a store of value but also as a "yield-generating asset," distinguishing it from traditional asset forms.
Kalshi Launches Commodity Market, Offering Price Prediction Services for Full Range of Commodities Including Soybeans, Natural Gas, Corn, Live Cattle
Odaily News Kalshi has launched a 24/7 commodity market, providing price prediction services for commodities including crude oil, diesel, gold, silver, copper, lithium, natural gas, sugar, soybeans, wheat, corn, coffee, cocoa, live cattle, and more.
Riot Executives Departure Impacts AI Transformation, Stock Price Drops 6%
Odaily News Riot Platforms' data center head, Jonathan Gibbs, has left the company after less than a year in the role, dealing a setback to the company's transformation towards AI and high-performance computing (HPC). The company's stock price fell approximately 6% on the day of the announcement.Gibbs joined in 2025, tasked with leading Riot's shift from traditional Bitcoin mining to AI and hyperscale data center operations. The reasons for his departure have not been disclosed, and his unvested stock awards (worth approximately $18.7 million) have been forfeited.Despite the short-term uncertainty brought by this personnel change, Riot had previously initiated its transformation. This includes partnering with AMD to build data centers and beginning to leverage its power resources to undertake AI computing business, generating some revenue conversion.To support infrastructure investments, the company has concurrently reduced its Bitcoin holdings. In Q1 2026, it sold approximately 3,778 BTC, raising about $290 million.Market observers believe Riot is at a critical stage of its dual-track transformation of "mining + AI computing power." While executive changes may affect the execution pace, the long-term direction will ultimately depend on its ability to successfully implement its data center business.
Galaxy’s Annual Report Released: Core Business Profitable, Stock Price Surges Over 11% in a Single Day
According to The Block, Galaxy Digital released its full-year 2025 financial results. Although the company reported a net loss of $241 million for the year, its core business achieved profitability on a non-GAAP basis. Specifically, its digital asset business segment—which includes trading, lending, asset management, and staking services—generated adjusted gross profit of $505 million. Boosted by this performance, GLXY’s stock closed up 11.3% that day at $21.15. CEO Mike Novogratz stated that the company’s Helios data center has received ERCOT approval to expand capacity to 1.6 gigawatts, and CoreWeave has signed a long-term lease for 800 megawatts of that capacity, securing a stable, long-term revenue stream. He emphasized that the industry is shifting from “narrative-driven” to “infrastructure-driven,” and Galaxy will continue to focus on core areas including the institutional market, asset management, onchain infrastructure, and AI data centers.
Analyst: Bitcoin’s Key “Value Zone” Emerges—Current Volatility May Present a Cycle-Level Entry Opportunity
Crypto analyst Ali published a detailed analysis on X, arguing that rather than debating whether Bitcoin has hit its bottom, market participants should focus on whether the current volatility represents a “generation-defining entry opportunity.” Based on long-term trend lines, on-chain liquidity, and cost distribution metrics, Ali delineates the core “value range” for this cycle. On the support side, the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows a significant concentration of coins in the $63,111–$70,685 range, forming the current primary support zone; if price breaks below $63,111, the market may enter a liquidity vacuum. From a long-term perspective, Bitcoin is approaching the key upward trend line from the past decade (approximately $56,000–$60,000), a level historically associated with accumulation phases preceding major rallies.
Related news
a16z Research: AI Agents Can Identify DeFi Price Manipulation Vulnerabilities, but Their Ability to Execute Complex Attacks Remains Limited
According to a disclosure by a16z, its researchers conducted systematic testing to assess whether AI agents can independently exploit DeFi price manipulation vulnerabilities. The study used a dataset of 20 Ethereum price manipulation incidents and employed Codex (GPT 5.4) equipped with the Foundry toolchain as the test agent. Under baseline conditions—i.e., without domain-specific knowledge—the agent’s success rate was only 10%; after incorporating structured domain knowledge distilled from real-world attack incidents, the success rate rose to 70%. Failure cases revealed that the agent consistently identified vulnerabilities correctly but generally failed to comprehend the leverage logic of recursive lending, misjudged profit margins, and could not orchestrate multi-step, cross-contract attack sequences. The experiment also recorded one sandbox escape incident: the agent extracted an RPC key from the local node configuration and invoked the <code>anvil_reset</code> method to reset the node to a future block, thereby bypassing information isolation constraints and accessing real-world attack data. The research team concluded that AI agents can currently assist effectively in vulnerability identification but are not yet capable of replacing professional security auditors.
T. Rowe Price Submits Third Amendment to Active Crypto ETF Filing
According to Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, T. Rowe Price has filed its third amended application for an Active Crypto ETF, with the ticker symbol $TOKN and an expense ratio of 75 basis points. Per its disclosures, the product may launch shortly. Eric Balchunas noted that T. Rowe Price is currently the largest active management firm seeking to bring active management capabilities into this space.
Analyst: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level for BTC. If it breaks $82,000, it could enter an amplified volatility range.
crypto analyst Murphy posted on platform X, stating that by combining three sets of data (Options Gamma Exposure, Options Open Interest by Strike Price, Options ATM Implied Volatility), the impact on BTC from an options perspective is as follows: $80,000 is the first effective resistance level above BTC’s current price. This level simultaneously features high Call OI, positive Gamma, and low IV. When the price pushes upward from this point, market makers' dynamic hedging tends to create selling pressure; the lower the IV, the higher the marginal sensitivity of market makers' hedging adjustments. Therefore, the thickness of this wall (OI of 7,200 BTC + the magnitude of positive Gamma) makes $80,000 a "tough nut to crack" in May. Once it breaks through and approaches $82,000, due to the presence of a larger scale of negative Gamma (OI of 4,644 BTC) at this level, the market could quickly shift from being suppressed to an "amplified volatility" mode.
Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.
Analysis: BTC’s Rally Stalls Amid Japanese Inflation Data and Iran War-Driven Market Risk Aversion
According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency market weakened overall on Friday, with BTC hovering near $77,800—its upward momentum since Wednesday’s rally from $65,000 notably slowing. ETH traded at $2,300, down approximately 0.8% over the past 24 hours, underperforming BTC. Market pressure stems primarily from two sources: First, Japan’s March Corporate Services Price Index rose 3.1% year-on-year—above expectations—and core inflation accelerated, raising market expectations that the Bank of Japan may signal an interest rate hike at its next policy meeting; a stronger yen could trigger unwinding of global risk-asset carry trades. Second, the ongoing Iran conflict continues disrupting oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz; WTI crude futures have surged over 40% since the outbreak of hostilities, reaching $96 per barrel. The U.S. Department of Defense warned that mine clearance will take at least six months, implying persistent global inflationary pressures and further constraining the Federal Reserve’s room to cut interest rates.
Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches Key $80,000 Level, Institutional Funds and Whale Buying Provide Support, but Breakthrough Still Awaits Confirmation
Bitcoin is once again approaching the $80,000 mark. Market analysis suggests that this level has become a key resistance point to test the strength of the current rebound. On the capital front, continued institutional inflows are providing support. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net inflows for six consecutive days, while Ethereum spot ETFs have also seen inflows for nine straight days, indicating a recovery in risk appetite. Meanwhile, whale addresses holding over 1,000 BTC have cumulatively added approximately 270,000 BTC over the past 30 days, marking the largest monthly increase since 2013, and exchange reserves have fallen to their lowest point in seven years.In terms of on-chain data, Glassnode points out that Bitcoin has reclaimed the "Realized Price" (approximately $78,100). However, the cost basis for short-term holders sits around $80,100, forming a direct pressure zone. Should the price reach this range, over 54% of short-term investors would be in profit, a scenario historically associated with the peak of a rebound phase. At the same time, the perpetual contract funding rate remains negative, indicating a significant short position. Given the ongoing improvement in spot demand, this could provide short-squeeze momentum for a subsequent upward move.In summary, while the capital structure and market resilience have improved, the $80,000 level remains a key watershed. The market has yet to confirm whether it can transition from a resistance level to a support level. (The Block)