News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News As monitored by on-chain analyst Ember, in the early hours of this morning, the match between Spain and Cape Verde ended in a surprising draw. A new wallet spent $4.22 million on Polymarket betting that Spain would not win the match, and that Cape Verde would win under a -2.5 handicap. Ultimately, $4.22 million turned into $13.28 million, netting a profit of $9.06 million.
Bernstein suggests Robinhood is poised for a "strong tailwind" as prediction market trading volumes hit record highs during the World Cup.Data shows that daily trading volume in prediction markets during the early stages of the FIFA World Cup surged from $2.2 billion on June 11 to $4.8 billion on June 12, setting a new all-time high, surpassing the $1.4 billion traded during the previous Super Bowl.Analysts note that prediction markets have become one of Robinhood's fastest-growing revenue lines since their launch. The firm projects Robinhood's prediction market revenue will grow from $150 million in 2025 to $586 million in 2026, representing an increase of approximately 286% year-over-year, and is expected to account for 17% of trading-related revenue and 10% of total revenue in 2026.Bernstein believes Robinhood's partnership with exchange and clearing house Rothera, which is regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), is a competitive advantage. Since its launch on May 28, Rothera has processed approximately 200 million contracts in 18 days, with FIFA World Cup and MLB-related contracts contributing nearly all of the trading volume. Analysts state that Robinhood's core strength lies in its distribution capability, with its massive user base, a commission of $0.01 per contract, and strategies like up to 50% fee discounts for Gold members helping to drive user engagement.Furthermore, Bernstein indicates that competition in the prediction market space is expanding, including Polymarket launching event contracts for private companies and Kalshi introducing cryptocurrency perpetual contracts. The firm estimates that the World Cup will bring over $3 billion in new betting volume to prediction markets and boost overall consumer trading volume in the industry by $5 billion to $10 billion. (The Block)
According to Cointelegraph, Japanese cryptocurrency exchange Bitbank announced that it may restrict or suspend accounts found to have deposits or withdrawals linked to prediction market platforms such as Polymarket. Bitbank stated that affected accounts may be unable to log in and will be restricted from depositing, withdrawing, and trading.
Odaily News The prediction market platform Polymarket issued a "resolution clarification" that overturned a market result that had already appeared to be settled. This led to a 20-year-old student's $35,000 bet being declared invalid, while a total of approximately $3.8 million in positions across 1,838 accounts on the platform were liquidated.This clarification clause was written into the platform's rulebook, allowing for retroactive interpretative corrections to market settlement results, thereby altering the final payout. The incident has sparked strong dissatisfaction among traders, who argue that this "post-hoc ruling" mechanism undermines the certainty of market rules, and has ignited widespread controversy within the Polymarket and Kalshi communities.According to user disclosures, the incident originates from a case made public on June 13, where a market result that had ostensibly been settled was later reversed due to a change in rule interpretation.Industry analysts believe that this type of mechanism introduces "settlement clarification risk" into prediction markets, which is a type of tail risk event that cannot be hedged. If such operations occur frequently, they could drive high-risk liquidity away from the current platform towards trading venues regulated by the CFTC or those with formal arbitration mechanisms.Furthermore, this event is seen as one in a recent series of controversies, including settlement disputes surrounding the UMA oracle and Strategy's Bitcoin-related markets, which continue to test market participants' trust in the "finality" of prediction markets. (Cryptobriefing)
According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, there is 1 hour left before SPCX opens. Currently, Binance's futures open interest stands at $395 million, while Hyperliquid's futures open interest is $273 million. The total subscriptions for Kraken's IPO amount to $888 million, with $557 million subscribed via Binance Wallet. On Polymarket, the trading volume for bets on SPCX's market cap at closing exceeds $13 million.
According to Odaily, the crypto derivatives contract SPCX, linked to a potential SpaceX IPO, has seen a rebound on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, reigniting market expectations for the space company founded by Elon Musk's first day of trading.Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back up to approximately $176 to $183 on Friday, recovering from a dip to around $153 earlier this week. This marks a significant bounce from the roughly $157 level observed when market attention peaked on Wednesday. The contract currently has an open interest of about $216 million, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company; it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share, the market views this contract as a key benchmark for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of listing.At the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a first-day premium of about 36% for SpaceX. Earlier, in May, the contract surged to $216, corresponding to a roughly 60% premium over the IPO price. When the contract fell to $157 earlier this week, the implied market premium narrowed to about 16%.Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a rebound in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that derivatives data from IG International implies a market valuation for SpaceX of approximately $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the roughly $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price. Additionally, Polymarket users are currently assigning a 70% probability to SpaceX's market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% over several weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's listing performance. The recent rebound suggests the market is re-pricing the potential for a higher valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)
investment firm Bernstein has released a report indicating that the expanded 48-team 2026 FIFA World Cup, set to take place in North America, is expected to drive up to $10 billion in consumer transaction volume for sports betting and prediction markets, along with over $3 billion in incremental capital.Bernstein analysts pointed out that this World Cup could be a turning point for prediction markets and online sports betting platforms, accelerating the development of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. Robinhood is leveraging this opportunity to commercially launch its CFTC-licensed prediction market exchange, Rothera. Institutions such as Binance and Coinbase are also offering World Cup contracts through partnerships. Currently, on the Myriad platform, Spain and France have the highest odds of winning. (Decrypt)
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
According to The Block, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted in his latest weekly report that as the Nasdaq-100 Index has surged 43% year-to-date and AI-related stocks continue attracting capital, the crypto market is undergoing a shift—from “momentum trading” to “contrarian bets.” Investors must adopt a long-term perspective and focus on fundamentals. Hougan also observed that during this crypto winter, capital has not flowed into mainstream safe-haven assets like Bitcoin; instead, it has poured into mid- and small-cap tokens with distinctive narratives—such as Hyperliquid (up 72% month-to-date), Zcash (up 50%), and Stellar (up 44%). Additionally, he emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act—a proposed legislative framework for crypto market structure—remains a key constraint on institutional capital inflows. Galaxy analysts and Polymarket both estimate the bill’s passage probability at roughly 50–55%. A sustainable rally in major crypto assets may only materialize after the legislation is enacted.
Odaily Seer Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction market titled "June world is peaceful and uneventful." Currently, the probability of something major happening (Something) stands at 14%, while the probability of nothing happening (Nothing) is reported at 86%.Traders believe there is an 86% likelihood that the market will see "no major progress" in June, as no significant diplomatic or policy breakthroughs appear imminent in the initial weeks.If any of the following conditions are met between the market creation and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (US):- WTI crude oil price breaks through $150;- The U.S. confirms the existence of extraterrestrials;- The Federal Reserve decides on any policy adjustments in June;- A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine;- Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile.Then the market will be settled as "Something"; otherwise, it will be settled as "Nothing."Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing the changes before prices are set.
: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, the Polymarket account TrevorPlovdivBulgariaForHisBirthday predicted a BLG victory in tonight’s LoL match between BLG and WE, incurring a cumulative loss of $157,500. Before the match, BLG’s win probability was as high as 95.5%, but the match ultimately ended in a 1:3 defeat, turning this user's originally anticipated profitable venture into a significant loss.
On-chain data shows that Polymarket whale “lovelystuff” has wagered $4.02 million on Arsenal winning tonight’s UEFA Champions League final. If correct, the prediction would yield a single-trade profit of approximately $3.62 million.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket of “Strategy selling Bitcoin before May 31” has dropped to 23%, a 17% decline in 24 hours.Additionally, the probability of a sale before June 30 stands at 67%, down 6% in 24 hours; the probability before December 31 is 88%, down 3% in 24 hours.Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase today, exactly the same amount as the deposit made the previous day, seemingly dispelling rumors of a Bitcoin sale.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before the price is set.
According to monitoring by crypto analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase three hours ago, exactly matching the 411 BTC it transferred to Coinbase the previous day.Ai Yi noted that this move may indicate previous market speculation about Strategy selling Bitcoin was unfounded. However, the probability of the prediction event "Strategy will sell BTC before the end of the year" on Polymarket has not significantly declined, and it currently remains at 89%.
Odaily News Court documents released by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York reveal that Google security engineer Michele Spagnuolo has been arrested and charged with using material non-public information to place bets on Polymarket related to Google user search results. According to the court documents, Spagnuolo used internal Google tools to track the list of the most searched-for individuals in 2025 and transferred approximately 3.8 million USDC to a Polymarket address. His associated account, AlphaRaccoon, placed bets on D4vd becoming one of the most searched-for individuals in late November just hours after accessing the internal tools. The documents further allege that AlphaRaccoon transferred 5 million USDC.e from a Polymarket account to a wallet, and subsequently moved the funds through exchange services and privacy tools, with some of the funds ultimately ending up in an account at a payment processing institution in Italy. Spagnuolo is accused of profiting over $1.2 million from these transactions and currently faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.
Josh, a Polymarket representative, stated that neither Polymarket nor UMA contracts were exploited, all user funds remain secure, usage of Polymarket.com is unaffected, and platform operations continue as normal. He added that the incident stemmed from the leakage of a six-year-old private key used for internal deposit configurations, which led to funds being sent to the associated address. Polymarket has since rotated this private key, revoked all production environment permissions, and will migrate all private keys to the KMS key management system.
According to Josh Stevens, Engineering Vice President at Polymarket, $164,000 of the $573,200 stolen due to a compromised private key has been frozen through collaboration among ZachXBT, Bitcoin Vietnam, and ChangeNOW. Josh previously stated that this incident did not involve an exploit of Polymarket or the UMA contract, user funds remain secure, and Polymarket.com remains fully operational. The issue originated from a six-year-old private key that was leaked; this key existed within an internal supplementary funding configuration, resulting in the unauthorized transfer of funds to the associated address.
Polymarket staff member Shantikiran Chanal posted on platform X, stating that they have taken note of the security reports related to reward distribution, and that user funds and market settlements remain safe. The investigation indicates that a private key leak occurred in a wallet used for internal operations, and the issue is not related to contracts or core infrastructure. Further updates will be provided.Previous report: ZachXBT stated that the Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract allegedly came under attack on Polygon, with over $520,000 having been drained.
Polymarket 公布功能更新最新进展，包括推出延迟垃圾请求（latency spam）缓解措施以保障订单下达与取消操作，修复“余额/授权不足”报错问题，另一个影响限价买单的核心问题预计将在未来几天完成修复。此外，Polymarket 表示已识别并封禁多个“幽灵成交（ghost-fill）”账户集群，相关账户均早于充值钱包（deposit wallet）系统上线前创建，一旦出现“幽灵成交”行为的账户都会进行识别与封禁，而充值钱包系统也将阻止违规账户继续批量创建新账户，未来一周还将继续发布更多更新以解决此前遗留问题。
According to the official documentation of the prediction market platform Polymarket, the Bridge Deposit page has consolidated the previously separate Ethereum and Polygon deposit recovery tools into a single tool, and removed the original "matic-recovery[.]polymarket[.]com" link.