News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously secretly approved 3 insider trading investigations into Polymarket trading, involving Biden pardon, Iran war, and Google-related event contracts. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig approved an investigation in May into contracts related to the Biden pardon, after a trader had profited over $300,000 from the related market; in the same month, the CFTC also approved an investigation into Iran war contracts, after a group of suspicious accounts was exposed for profiting $2.4 million with a win rate of approximately 98%. In July, the CFTC further launched an investigation into Google-related Polymarket contracts, focusing on individuals who may have used non-public information about Google's 2025 search rankings to trade. The U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York is also conducting a parallel investigation, and Polymarket stated that it has referred the relevant matters to law enforcement and is cooperating with the investigation.
Odaily News - Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas stated on the X platform that Tema is launching a prediction market ETF. However, this product is a thematic ETF, not an actual event contract ETF, which the SEC is still considering. The ETF will allocate 15% of its positions to private assets from Kalshi and Polymarket, with a management fee of 75 basis points.
According to monitoring by the PPP Prediction Market Tool, the probability on Polymarket that the "foldable iPhone's US launch price will exceed $2,300" has dropped to 15%, down 35% over the past week; the probability of it exceeding $2,200 has fallen to 42%, down 17% week-over-week.The event contract rules state: any foldable smartphone released by Apple will be considered a foldable iPhone, even if it is not explicitly named as such. If the price of the foldable iPhone at its initial US launch is greater than or equal to the specified amount, the market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No." If Apple releases multiple foldable iPhone models, the lowest announced starting price will be used. If Apple does not announce the price of the foldable iPhone by 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026, the market will resolve to "No."According to an official announcement from Apple, the fall 2026 new product launch event will be held at 1:00 AM Beijing time on September 10, themed "Surprise and shine." However, pricing for the device unexpectedly leaked from overseas carrier Vodafone's backend systems in Australia and Egypt. The Australian channel reveals that the iPhone Ultra will be available in 256GB, 512GB, and 1TB storage options, starting at AUD 3,699. Industry observers estimate that the US starting price for the Ultra could land near $2,000.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay one step ahead and seize the opportunity.
Odaily News - Polymarket trader "xm39" has continued to increase positions on geopolitical conflict-related prediction events on Polymarket, placing three separate buys totaling 274,500 shares on the U.S. invading Iran before 2027, filled at probabilities of 14%, 15%, and 16%, with an investment of approximately $41,700.Currently, xm39 holds a cumulative total of 642,300 Yes shares, with a total cost of approximately $127,100 and an unrealized loss of roughly $27,600.Additionally, its associated address also added approximately 28,400 WTI short contracts against the market trend, with a trading volume of around $2.401 million. As oil prices continued to rise, the address closed out all 107,400 short contracts at 9:01 AM, with an average closing price of approximately $84.86, recording a realized loss of roughly $131,500. Just about 10 minutes later, its trading direction flipped from short to long. The address subsequently bought approximately 64,700 WTI contracts consecutively and currently holds about $5.531 million in long positions with 20x full margin, with an unrealized profit of around $18,200, a margin return rate of approximately 6.6%, and a liquidation price of about $64.88.
Odaily News: The meme coin "Niu Lai" was listed on Binance Alpha yesterday. After a brief pullback following the news-driven surge, it rebounded in the early hours of today, briefly surpassing a $40 million market cap and currently standing at $38.03 million. DeGods founder Frank has been steadily accumulating, with his current holdings exceeding $500,000 in "Niu Lai." He mentioned that the movie "Niu Lai" will soon be screened in the United States, which is actually a viewing party organized by Polymarket. Qwerty, the top address on the "Niu Lai" profit leaderboard, reduced some of its position yesterday afternoon and has not made any further moves to reduce or increase holdings since then.
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the address associated with Polymarket trader "xm39" closed all remaining 82,700 long positions on crude oil (CL) on the evening of July 31, with a trading volume of approximately $6.904 million, at an average closing price of $83.52, realizing a profit of approximately $97,000. Afterwards, the address maintained a no-position stance on crude oil defensively for two days.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
Odaily News Kalshi trader Caleb Davies stated that he had requested Kalshi to delay the settlement of a Spotify prediction market to allow the执法 team to review suspected artificially manipulated streaming data. The market focused on which artists would top the Spotify US Daily Chart, with a trading volume of $3.32 million. Davies stated that Malcolm Todd's song "Earrings" surged approximately 70% in a single day and reached the top of the Spotify US Chart on June 29. Kalshi's Head of Enforcement and Legal, Robert DeNault, responded that only Spotify could verify whether the data originated from genuine listens or manipulation. Kalshi finalized the settlement minutes after issuing this response. Davies noted that the open interest for the "Earrings" outcome rose from $2,000 to over $70,000 in the days leading up to the emergence of the disputed streaming data. The following day, Spotify removed 523,000 streams from the cumulative data for "Earrings," meaning that under the adjusted data, the song would have ranked fourth on June 29 instead of first. Subsequently, Spotify requested Kalshi and Polymarket to remove its branding, stating that neither party had established a partnership with the streaming service. Kalshi has removed the relevant branding and modified its wording. Spokesperson Elisabeth Diana stated that the company is contacting Spotify and conducting an investigation; Kalshi has not yet published the investigation results, rescinded the settlement, or announced compensation.
According to Protos, George Cottrell, an aide to UK Reform Party leader Nigel Farage who was previously convicted of wire fraud, had his Polymarket account (username "GCottrell93") receive a total of $8.8 million in funds in October 2024—$7 million of which came from an OKX exchange wallet (in five transactions), and another $1.83 million from a ChangeNOW wallet. These funds were subsequently used to bet on Trump winning the US election, with approximately $13 million in winnings ultimately transferred to an OKX wallet and $282,000 to ChangeNOW.
According to the PPP Prediction Market Tool, in Polymarket's "Bitcoin July Price" prediction market, BTC currently has a 75% probability of reaching $67,500, a 34% probability of reaching $70,000, and a 12% probability of reaching $72,500.Recently, Bitcoin has continued its rebound trend. According to OKX data, BTC approached $67,000 last night, with market sentiment steadily warming. Additionally, the previously bullish whale "Set Ten Big Goals First" took profits and exited early yesterday morning, but posted on X platform, stating, "The trend remains bullish; this is simply taking profits and securing gains."Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Odaily Odaily News Polymarket traders have raised the probability of Bitcoin hitting $67,500 in July to 70%, up from about 56% earlier this week. The current market probability of Bitcoin reaching $65,000 stands at 82%, while the probability of it falling below $60,000 is 13%. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows for the fifth consecutive trading day this week, fueling bets on higher prices. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve has maintained its target interest rate between 3.50% and 3.75%, and new Chairman Kevin Warsh has shifted the central bank's communication style to purely data-dependent.
OdailyOdaily Planet Daily News The U.S. Senate has passed a resolution opposing an administrative pardon for former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried. The non-binding measure states that Bankman-Fried should not receive an administrative pardon and reaffirms the Senate's commitment to the rule of law and the integrity of the U.S. financial system. The resolution was introduced by Senator Ruben Gallego on June 17, with Senator Cynthia Lummis as a co-sponsor, opposing any federal pardon for Bankman-Fried, including a presidential pardon or commutation of sentence. A simple Senate resolution does not require approval from the House of Representatives or the President and carries no legal force. Bankman-Fried was sentenced to 25 years in federal prison in March 2024 on charges of fraud and conspiracy related to the collapse of FTX in 2022. Speculation intensified after he applied for a pardon from Donald Trump in June 2026, with Department of Justice records showing the request is pending. Polymarket traders currently place the probability of Donald Trump pardoning Bankman-Fried before July 31 at less than 1%. The trading volume for this market exceeds $734,000.
According to PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring, the probability of "WTI crude oil rising to $80 by July 2026" on Polymarket has reached 47%, up 28% in 24 hours.Trump stated today that he may launch a large-scale attack on Iran. As the 60-day ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran becomes precarious, oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has "basically come to a standstill." Kpler senior oil analyst Navin Das stated that since the US and Iran reached a 60-day ceasefire agreement on June 17, the average daily number of tankers passing through has been approximately 32. This figure is nearly three times the average daily traffic between the outbreak of the conflict (February) and the signing of the agreement on June 17, though still far below pre-war levels.Join the PPP Signal Push Community to stay ahead and seize the opportunity.
Polymarket has integrated Spark, a Bitcoin Layer 2 payment protocol, allowing users to make instant deposits via the Bitcoin Lightning Network.According to the report, Spark will provide underlying payment infrastructure for Polymarket, enabling users to deposit directly with BTC, with funds arriving in seconds. Compared to traditional on-chain Bitcoin transfers, which take 30 minutes to 1 hour for confirmation, this offers faster speed, lower costs, and greater privacy. This integration is also part of Polymarket's ongoing efforts to enhance the Bitcoin payment experience, following its earlier move to support Bitcoin deposits. (Digital Assets)
According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, Polymarket trader 1two1two (0x722...59A) went from a $5.6 million profit to a $103,000 loss in 13 days. The account, created in June 2026, has a win rate of 48.3% (14/29) and a trading volume of $21.99 million. Its largest losses include $3.06 million on Portugal vs. Spain (Over 2.5), $2.64 million on Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway (No), and $748,140 on Brazil vs. Norway (Draw — Yes). Despite a maximum single profit of $3.59 million, the account has not maintained profitability.
Polymarket traders estimate a 23% probability that the U.S. government, through legislation, executive orders, export controls, or other formal actions taken before December 31, 2026, will prevent the American public from accessing major Chinese AI models. Multiple departments within the U.S. Department of Commerce have already banned employees from using Deepseek on work devices due to data security concerns, and Virginia, Texas, and New York have also imposed Deepseek device bans on state employees. (Bitcoin.com News).
according to official sources, the self-custody Web3 wallet BM Wallet has launched its prediction market feature. Users can now directly participate in real-world event predictions within the wallet, settling entirely with stablecoins. Assets never need to be withdrawn, and private keys remain under the user's control at all times. This feature integrates the prediction market Polymarket, tapping into its deep liquidity. The initial phase centers on the World Cup, while also covering sectors such as cryptocurrency and politics. It is currently available in designated regions.
据链上分析师 Onchain Lens（@OnchainLens）监测，一个仅创建两天的钱包"coldsway"在 Polymarket 上参与了三场 FIFA 世界杯竞猜，累计净亏损超 397 万美元。其中损失最惨的一注为南非对加拿大，因加拿大最终获胜，损失达 314 万美元；哥伦比亚对葡萄牙一注亦亏损 197 万美元。该钱包仅在克罗地亚对加纳的预测中获胜，盈利 106 万美元。
on-chain security analyst Specter has stated that a suspected phishing attack targeting Polymarket users is underway, with cumulative losses currently estimated at approximately $2.94 million. According to their monitoring, the attacker has transferred funds from over 11 victim wallets holding PUSD, swapping the stolen assets for ETH. Specter also reminds users to be vigilant against phishing risks and notes that the incident is still being actively tracked.