News linked to both this project and an event.
According to The Block, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan noted in his latest weekly report that as the Nasdaq-100 Index has surged 43% year-to-date and AI-related stocks continue attracting capital, the crypto market is undergoing a shift—from “momentum trading” to “contrarian bets.” Investors must adopt a long-term perspective and focus on fundamentals. Hougan also observed that during this crypto winter, capital has not flowed into mainstream safe-haven assets like Bitcoin; instead, it has poured into mid- and small-cap tokens with distinctive narratives—such as Hyperliquid (up 72% month-to-date), Zcash (up 50%), and Stellar (up 44%). Additionally, he emphasized that uncertainty surrounding the Clarity Act—a proposed legislative framework for crypto market structure—remains a key constraint on institutional capital inflows. Galaxy analysts and Polymarket both estimate the bill’s passage probability at roughly 50–55%. A sustainable rally in major crypto assets may only materialize after the legislation is enacted.
Odaily Seer Channel monitors that Polymarket has launched a new prediction market titled "June world is peaceful and uneventful." Currently, the probability of something major happening (Something) stands at 14%, while the probability of nothing happening (Nothing) is reported at 86%.Traders believe there is an 86% likelihood that the market will see "no major progress" in June, as no significant diplomatic or policy breakthroughs appear imminent in the initial weeks.If any of the following conditions are met between the market creation and June 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM Eastern Time (US):- WTI crude oil price breaks through $150;- The U.S. confirms the existence of extraterrestrials;- The Federal Reserve decides on any policy adjustments in June;- A ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine;- Iran agrees to hand over its enriched uranium stockpile.Then the market will be settled as "Something"; otherwise, it will be settled as "Nothing."Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing the changes before prices are set.
: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi’s monitoring, the Polymarket account TrevorPlovdivBulgariaForHisBirthday predicted a BLG victory in tonight’s LoL match between BLG and WE, incurring a cumulative loss of $157,500. Before the match, BLG’s win probability was as high as 95.5%, but the match ultimately ended in a 1:3 defeat, turning this user's originally anticipated profitable venture into a significant loss.
On-chain data shows that Polymarket whale “lovelystuff” has wagered $4.02 million on Arsenal winning tonight’s UEFA Champions League final. If correct, the prediction would yield a single-trade profit of approximately $3.62 million.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket of “Strategy selling Bitcoin before May 31” has dropped to 23%, a 17% decline in 24 hours.Additionally, the probability of a sale before June 30 stands at 67%, down 6% in 24 hours; the probability before December 31 is 88%, down 3% in 24 hours.Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase today, exactly the same amount as the deposit made the previous day, seemingly dispelling rumors of a Bitcoin sale.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before the price is set.
According to monitoring by crypto analyst Ai Yi (@ai_9684xtpa), Strategy withdrew 411 BTC from Coinbase three hours ago, exactly matching the 411 BTC it transferred to Coinbase the previous day.Ai Yi noted that this move may indicate previous market speculation about Strategy selling Bitcoin was unfounded. However, the probability of the prediction event "Strategy will sell BTC before the end of the year" on Polymarket has not significantly declined, and it currently remains at 89%.
Odaily News Court documents released by the U.S. Attorney's Office for the Southern District of New York reveal that Google security engineer Michele Spagnuolo has been arrested and charged with using material non-public information to place bets on Polymarket related to Google user search results. According to the court documents, Spagnuolo used internal Google tools to track the list of the most searched-for individuals in 2025 and transferred approximately 3.8 million USDC to a Polymarket address. His associated account, AlphaRaccoon, placed bets on D4vd becoming one of the most searched-for individuals in late November just hours after accessing the internal tools. The documents further allege that AlphaRaccoon transferred 5 million USDC.e from a Polymarket account to a wallet, and subsequently moved the funds through exchange services and privacy tools, with some of the funds ultimately ending up in an account at a payment processing institution in Italy. Spagnuolo is accused of profiting over $1.2 million from these transactions and currently faces charges of commodities fraud, wire fraud, and money laundering.
Josh, a Polymarket representative, stated that neither Polymarket nor UMA contracts were exploited, all user funds remain secure, usage of Polymarket.com is unaffected, and platform operations continue as normal. He added that the incident stemmed from the leakage of a six-year-old private key used for internal deposit configurations, which led to funds being sent to the associated address. Polymarket has since rotated this private key, revoked all production environment permissions, and will migrate all private keys to the KMS key management system.
According to Josh Stevens, Engineering Vice President at Polymarket, $164,000 of the $573,200 stolen due to a compromised private key has been frozen through collaboration among ZachXBT, Bitcoin Vietnam, and ChangeNOW. Josh previously stated that this incident did not involve an exploit of Polymarket or the UMA contract, user funds remain secure, and Polymarket.com remains fully operational. The issue originated from a six-year-old private key that was leaked; this key existed within an internal supplementary funding configuration, resulting in the unauthorized transfer of funds to the associated address.
Polymarket staff member Shantikiran Chanal posted on platform X, stating that they have taken note of the security reports related to reward distribution, and that user funds and market settlements remain safe. The investigation indicates that a private key leak occurred in a wallet used for internal operations, and the issue is not related to contracts or core infrastructure. Further updates will be provided.Previous report: ZachXBT stated that the Polymarket UMA CTF Adapter contract allegedly came under attack on Polygon, with over $520,000 having been drained.
Polymarket 公布功能更新最新进展，包括推出延迟垃圾请求（latency spam）缓解措施以保障订单下达与取消操作，修复“余额/授权不足”报错问题，另一个影响限价买单的核心问题预计将在未来几天完成修复。此外，Polymarket 表示已识别并封禁多个“幽灵成交（ghost-fill）”账户集群，相关账户均早于充值钱包（deposit wallet）系统上线前创建，一旦出现“幽灵成交”行为的账户都会进行识别与封禁，而充值钱包系统也将阻止违规账户继续批量创建新账户，未来一周还将继续发布更多更新以解决此前遗留问题。
According to the official documentation of the prediction market platform Polymarket, the Bridge Deposit page has consolidated the previously separate Ethereum and Polygon deposit recovery tools into a single tool, and removed the original "matic-recovery[.]polymarket[.]com" link.
Josh Stevens, the new Vice President of Engineering at Polymarket, stated on platform X that with the launch of the Deposit Wallets feature, the proportion of ghost fills has dropped from a peak of 30% to 0.17%, and will continue to trend toward 0% throughout the day.
Decentralized prediction market platform Polymarket has officially launched its Deposit Wallets feature. Newly registered users will automatically receive a dedicated deposit address. As this feature rolls out fully, the existing “ghost fills” issue is expected to gradually diminish. Meanwhile, the team continues to monitor system performance to ensure stable operation.
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that the probability of Polymarket's "CLARITY Act takes effect in 2026" has risen to 67%, up 21% in 24 hours.The event contract rules state: If the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on December 31, 2026, the outcome is "Yes"; otherwise, it is "No." The primary source of information is the Congress.gov website (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official U.S. government information, although other reliable reports may also be referenced.Coinbase has indicated that key disagreements regarding stablecoin holding yield provisions have been resolved with traditional banking institutions, clearing the way for the U.S. Senate to advance the crypto market structure bill. Previously, banks had lobbied to restrict or prohibit exchanges from offering yields to stablecoin holders, primarily due to concerns over capital outflows from the deposit banking system. Coinbase Chief Policy Officer Faryar Shirzad stated that the final plan, while adding some restrictions, still preserves room for users to earn rewards through crypto platforms and networks based on actual usage scenarios. This development is expected to push the CLARITY Act toward a voting process in the Senate Banking Committee.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Polymarket announced the launch of an on-chain market integrity monitoring system solution to monitor trading behavior and enforce platform market compliance rules. The system will be built in collaboration with blockchain data analytics firm Chainalysis, covering the entire Polymarket DeFi transaction process, including real-time on-chain analysis of trading, positions, and settlement data, and identifying potential misconduct through multi-layered monitoring mechanisms, with a focus on insider trading and market manipulation.Polymarket stated that all its transactions are completed on a public blockchain. This collaboration will further amplify the advantages of on-chain transparency, enabling regulators and law enforcement agencies to obtain verifiable on-chain evidence, thereby establishing new compliance standards in the prediction market sector. Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan stated that the platform has emphasized transparency and traceability since its inception, and this collaboration will further solidify its positioning as a "trustworthy source of market information." (Businesswire)
According to monitoring by the Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel, in the Polymarket prediction event regarding "What will Powell say at the April press conference," the probability of purchasing "Good Afternoon" has risen to 98.3%. As the transaction price is close to 98.3¢, the total trading volume for this event currently stands at $57,749.In related context, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is about to hold the April monetary policy press conference. As his term is set to expire in mid-next month, this press conference is viewed as a final act of his career. Based on historical precedent, Powell habitually greets the media with "good afternoon" at the start of each press conference. Although the market is currently under pressure from a high-interest-rate environment, bettors have shown extremely high consensus in predicting this customary phrasing.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, observing changes before prices are set.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket probability of "Trump announcing the lifting of the Strait of Hormuz blockade before May 31" has risen to 63%, up 7% in 24 hours.U.S. President Trump posted on social media: Iran has just informed us that they are in a "state of collapse." They want us to "open the Strait of Hormuz" as soon as possible so they can resolve their leadership issues (and I believe they can!).Meanwhile, the Deputy Commander of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps Navy stated that Iran has achieved absolute control over the Strait of Hormuz and requires passing vessels to pay transit fees. He emphasized that the territorial sovereignty of the Strait of Hormuz is inviolable, and foreign vessels passing through this waterway must comply with rules set by Iran, including using the Persian language for communication. He said, "Without the Supreme Leader's order and the will of the people, Iran will never allow even a single liter of oil to flow out of the Strait." He also stated that the Iranian military is currently on high alert, with "fingers on the trigger." He claimed that U.S. hegemony in the Persian Gulf has ended and reaffirmed Iran's ability to respond to any form of naval blockade.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before the price is set.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), ZRO—the native token of LayerZero, the cross-chain bridge exploited by hackers in today’s rsETH vulnerability incident—fell 18% on the day, dropping from $1.90 to $1.50. Twenty minutes ago, a Polymarket user with the address “greenrooibos” deposited 978,000 ZRO tokens to Binance, valued at approximately $1.57 million. These ZRO tokens were withdrawn from Binance two weeks ago, when they were worth roughly $2.04 million; this deposit thus corresponds to a loss of approximately $470,000.
According to on-chain analyst Yujin (@EmberCN), after the hacker borrowed a large amount of ETH from Aave by pledging illegally minted rsETH, multiple whale addresses sold AAVE on-chain, causing AAVE’s price to drop 15% that day. Among them, the Polymarket user “smaugvision” sold 20,015 AAVE at an average price of $102.9, worth approximately $2.06 million; address 0xFC5 sold 20,000 AAVE at an average price of $102.8, worth approximately $2.05 million; and address 0xA2E sold 19,665 AAVE at an average price of $99.2, worth approximately $1.95 million.