News linked to both this project and an event.
According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
During the 11th year of Ethereum, the Ethereum Foundation underwent organizational restructuring, including leadership departures, layoffs, the introduction of a new CROPS mandate, and the spin-off of EthLabs, Ethereum Systems, and Ethereum Institutional as independent entities. The Ethereum Foundation seeks to further decentralize its role within the ecosystem. Concurrently, Ethereum continued to advance its technology and institutional adoption, launching the Fusaka upgrade and attracting participation from Wall Street institutions such as BlackRock and JPMorgan; cumulative inflows into US spot Ethereum ETFs have exceeded $11.23 billion.
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan's equity strategy report on July 20 noted that AI-related stocks have suffered heavy selling over the past few weeks. The Korean stock market has fallen 25% from its highs, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has dropped 20%, and individual stocks such as Samsung and Micron have declined between 20% and 50%. The report believes the core drivers of this decline are technical factors and position clearing, with no deterioration in fundamentals. The gap between semiconductor relative prices and relative earnings trends continues to widen, but the tight supply-demand balance for DRAM and NAND will persist until 2028. DRAM spot prices remain high, and Micron has also raised its earnings guidance, judging that supply-demand tightness will last at least until 2027. The RSI of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has approached the oversold zone, and momentum gains accumulated year-to-date have been largely erased. JPMorgan judges that once oversold signals are confirmed, a rebound window will open, suggesting investors build semiconductor positions in tranches during the summer. The proportion of Q2 earnings reports beating expectations reached 97%, and S&P 500 companies beating expectations outperformed the market by an average of 1.7 percentage points on the day of their earnings releases. In terms of allocation, JPMorgan has increased equity allocation from 60% to 65%, and the Eurozone allocation from 8.7% to 11%. At the industry level, it overweights semiconductors, mining, capital goods, automobiles, insurance, and banks, and underweights software, commercial services, media, and other "AI Cannibalization Group" sectors. Regarding geopolitical conflicts, the report believes that the "buy the dip" strategy since the end of March remains effective.
According to TechFlow Research, JPMorgan's quantitative report on July 16 noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively declined by approximately 19% since its high on June 22, but quantitative models indicate that the unwinding of crowding in AI-related sectors is not yet complete. The "AI Bubble Interest Score" tracked by the model remains in the historical highest range; at this level, the probability of SOX falling another 8% or more in the short term exceeds 50%. JPMorgan provided a quantifiable entry signal: only when the score falls out of the historical highest range is it truly time to consider scaling in. Before this, every rebound may be pressed back by panic narratives. For US stock investors, now is not the time to add positions; it is recommended to wait for the window in mid-August, or use put options and defensive sectors to hedge. For A-share investors, the volatility of the domestic AI sector is higher; the same logic can be applied, waiting for clearer right-side signals, with the August earnings period being the key window.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in the latest report that although recent spot Bitcoin ETF fund inflows have fluctuated significantly, Strategy's increase of USD reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion (covering approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividends), as well as Bitcoin futures (including CME futures and perpetual contracts) recording positive fund inflows this week, are both "positive signals" for Bitcoin's prospects. The analysts also noted that leveraged ETF inflows linked to Strategy have remained stable for seven consecutive weeks, mainly driven by retail investors, effectively supporting its stock price. Meanwhile, Strategy President and CEO Phong Le stated that the company is "very confident" in its balance sheet, will only consider debt risk if Bitcoin prices fall to the $8,000 to $10,000 range, and plans to continue issuing additional shares after the STRC preferred stock returns to a $100 par value, with the proceeds potentially used to purchase more Bitcoin.
JPMorgan analysts say Strategy’s recent increase in USD cash reserves, along with positive fund flows in the Bitcoin futures market, are “encouraging signs” for Bitcoin’s outlook, despite recent volatility in spot Bitcoin ETF flows.The report notes that flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have been unstable in recent weeks, turning negative this week after inflows last week. In contrast, leveraged ETFs linked to Strategy have seen relatively stable and positive flows over the past seven weeks. Analysts attribute this primarily to retail investor buying, which may have supported Strategy’s stock price and prevented its common stock from falling below the net asset value of its Bitcoin holdings.Meanwhile, Strategy recently increased its USD cash reserves from $2.55 billion to $3 billion, enough to cover approximately 20 months of preferred stock dividend payments. JPMorgan had previously suggested that Strategy should raise its cash reserves to cover two to three years of dividends, in order to alleviate market concerns about the company potentially being forced to sell Bitcoin to pay dividends in the future.Analysts say it is still difficult to determine whether Strategy's move to bolster its cash reserves has directly improved Bitcoin investor sentiment. However, the fact that Bitcoin futures still recorded positive fund flows this week, against a backdrop of spot BTC ETF outflows, is also seen as an encouraging signal for the market outlook.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although Strategy's Bitcoin selling plan has triggered market attention, it is not the core risk facing Bitcoin. The real structural threat lies in the fact that blockchain applications such as tokenization, payments, and settlements are increasingly occurring on permissioned chains (Permissioned Blockchain), rather than on public chains such as Ethereum. If this trend continues, the public chain ecosystem will face issues such as declining liquidity and weakened capital inflows, ultimately dragging down Bitcoin valuations. The analysts also warned that the proliferation of bank-built blockchain infrastructure and tokenized deposits could undermine the position of stablecoins in institutional payments; regulated alternatives such as SWIFT's blockchain plan, the digital euro, and the digital yuan also constitute competitive pressure. However, the analysts also pointed out that if hybrid public-private chain models emerge, stablecoin regulation becomes clearer, or Bitcoin continues to be held as "digital gold", the aforementioned risks may be mitigated.
as the 25-day quiet period following SpaceX's (SPCX) June IPO comes to an end, Wall Street analysts have begun releasing formal research reports. Multiple major brokerages have issued favorable ratings, indicating institutional investors remain optimistic about the company's long-term growth potential.As IPO underwriters, both Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley have assigned buy-equivalent ratings to SpaceX. Goldman Sachs analyst Eric Sheridan set a price target of $205, while Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas gave a target of $300. Additionally, institutions such as Bank of America, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, and UBS have also initiated coverage with buy or equivalent ratings. Among them, Raymond James Financial provided the most optimistic forecast; analyst Brian Gesuale initiated coverage of SpaceX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target as high as $800, believing SpaceX will become "one of the most representative industrial infrastructure companies of the 21st century."Analysis suggests that market optimism towards SpaceX is primarily based on its布局 (layout/foundation) in areas such as rocket launches, Starlink satellite internet, and government contracts. At the same time, the company's communications business can provide a sustainable source of revenue and support future expansion of launch scale.As of March 31, 2026, SpaceX holds 18,712 Bitcoins. Wall Street believes that the concentrated coverage following the end of the IPO quiet period provides a window for institutional investors to conduct their first systematic assessment of SpaceX's valuation. The fact that nearly all major institutions simultaneously issued positive ratings is relatively rare for large-scale IPOs. (CoinDesk)
According to JPMorgan analysts, Michael Saylor’s Strategy recently officially launched a Bitcoin sale policy, transforming the company from a pure BTC buyer into a potential seller, introducing an “avoidable two-way risk” to the crypto market.Strategy’s Bitcoin sale policy, named the BTC Monetization Program, allows the company to sell Bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash reserves. These funds will be used to pay preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or to repurchase preferred and common shares, in order to optimize its capital structure.JPMorgan believes that Strategy’s potential future sale of BTC will increase market uncertainty and volatility regarding the price of Bitcoin. Analysts stated that if the company had instead supplemented its future dividend payment reserves by issuing equity, this risk could have been avoided.Strategy currently has a minimum cash reserve target covering 12 months of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, with its current cash reserves of $2.55 billion sufficient to cover approximately 17 months of dividends. JPMorgan believes the company should increase its cash reserves to cover 24 to 36 months of related obligations. Even if this results in the common stock trading at a discount to net asset value, it would provide greater assurance to investors that the company will not be forced to sell Bitcoin in the short term.
Nasdaq confirmed that SpaceX will be officially added to the Nasdaq-100 Index on July 7. JPMorgan estimates this move could generate approximately $4.3 billion in passive inflows for the company, with related index funds passively increasing their holdings of its stock.
US stock futures fell across the board on Friday, with the tech sector leading the decline, as market concerns over rising AI infrastructure costs and a slowdown in fundraising pace intensified. Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.2%, S&P 500 futures dropped 0.5%, and Dow Jones futures lost 67 points (-0.1%). Chip stocks broadly weakened following reports that OpenAI is considering postponing its IPO until next year, citing increased volatility in AI-related stocks, unstable market sentiment, and even the impact of SpaceX’s weak post-IPO performance.JPMorgan's trading desk noted that this news has reinforced market concerns about the sustainability of AI infrastructure investments and could affect the pace of future capital market fundraising. Vital Knowledge analyst Adam Crisafulli also stated that the IPO delay could slow down the overall expansion rate of AI infrastructure spending.In the chip sector, Philadelphia Semiconductor-related stocks came under pressure, with ON Semiconductor falling over 13% after acquiring Synaptics. Micron Technology and SanDisk both declined by more than 5%. The XLK ETF tracking the tech sector fell 1.6%, extending the previous session's losses. (CNBC)
“White-Haired Stock Guru” Serenity posted on X platform, reviewing his bullish stance on SIVE. The company's initial share price was only about 4 Swedish Krona (SEK), and now it has accumulated a surge of 1,900% in roughly three months. His bullish judgment has attracted several U.S. institutions, including JPMorgan and Fidelity, to enter the market and gradually start building positions. Serenity also stated that SIVE is “the second most important investment judgment” in his history, second only to his previous bullish stance on AXTI.
sources familiar with the matter have revealed that Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are exploring trading methods based on the cost of computing power, including futures contracts linked to GPU rental prices. As one of the scarcest resources amid the AI boom, related futures for GPUs are expected to be listed on exchanges later this year.Industry insiders stated that this move reflects how the influx of hundreds of billions of dollars into data centers and the chip sector is reshaping the financial market landscape. For banks financing the construction of AI infrastructure, such innovative instruments could become a new means of risk management. (The Information)
“New Stock God” Serenity posted on X, stating that JPMorgan’s disclosure of acquiring over 5.25% of $SIVE shares carries far greater market significance than the public anticipated. For U.S. institutions, $135 million is merely a small amount—they have ample capacity to acquire up to 25% of the shares; the main constraint lies in the limited number of freely tradable shares available to retail investors. Nevertheless, JPMorgan’s buying signal is expected to trigger follow-on purchases by other major institutions, creating a chain reaction. Since $SIVE’s freely tradable shares are heavily shorted by Swedish hedge funds and various algorithmic funds, the entry of large U.S. institutions into positions will trigger market short-covering activity. Serenity added that this also validates their strategy: first providing investment ideas to retail investors, then letting institutions follow—thereby capturing opportunities in the next CPO super-cycle.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts noted in their latest report that tokenized money market funds currently account for only about 5% of the stablecoin market size and are expected to continue growing—but unless there is a significant shift in the regulatory environment, they are unlikely to surpass a market share ceiling of 10%–15%. The analysts believe stablecoins remain the preferred cash instrument in the crypto ecosystem due to their widespread use in trading, settlement, cross-border payments, and liquidity management. In contrast, tokenized money market funds—classified as securities—are subject to structural regulatory disadvantages, including requirements for registration, disclosure, and transfer restrictions, making them difficult to circulate freely within on-chain ecosystems. Although the U.S. SEC has introduced streamlined processes for issuing on-chain money market funds, JPMorgan analysts view this as only a “marginal improvement,” insufficient to fundamentally alter the market dynamics between these two asset classes.
JPMorgan analysts indicate that despite the overall recovery of the crypto market following the Iran conflict, Ethereum and other altcoins continue to underperform Bitcoin. This trend, which has persisted since 2023, may be difficult to reverse in the short term unless there is a significant improvement in network activity, DeFi, and real-world applications.The report points out that, based on spot ETF flows and institutional futures positions, Bitcoin has shown stronger recovery momentum than Ethereum. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have recovered approximately two-thirds of their previous outflows, while spot Ethereum ETFs have only recovered about one-third.Meanwhile, CME futures data shows that institutional investors have been more active in rebuilding their Bitcoin exposure, with Bitcoin futures positions nearly fully recovered. In contrast, Ethereum futures positions remain below previous levels. JPMorgan believes that without stronger on-chain fundamentals and real-world application support, ETH and altcoins are likely to continue underperforming relative to Bitcoin.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), led by Michael Saylor, has been accelerating its Bitcoin acquisitions this year. JPMorgan analysts stated that if the current pace continues, the company's total Bitcoin purchases for the year could reach approximately $30 billion. So far this year, Strategy has added 145,834 Bitcoin to its holdings, valued at around $11 billion. Analysis indicates that a significant portion of the company's purchases occurred when Bitcoin was below its average cost of roughly $75,000, reflecting a more "opportunistic" allocation strategy.At the current rate, Strategy's total Bitcoin purchases in 2026 could significantly exceed the approximately $22 billion levels seen in 2024 and 2025. Analysts noted that the company has re-accelerated its buying since April, suggesting its strategy is becoming more dependent on market conditions and financing availability. Meanwhile, Strategy's stock continues to trade at a premium of approximately 26% to its net asset value (NAV), providing favorable conditions for the company to continue purchasing Bitcoin through equity and debt financing. The company currently holds approximately 818,334 BTC, with a total value exceeding $65 billion. (The Block)
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts noted in their latest report that ongoing DeFi security vulnerabilities and stagnant growth in total value locked (TVL) continue to constrain institutional enthusiasm for the DeFi sector. Recently, Kelp DAO’s cross-chain bridge suffered a major attack, during which the attacker minted $292 million worth of uncollateralized rsETH tokens and borrowed real ETH on Aave, resulting in approximately $230 million in bad debt. This caused DeFi TVL to evaporate by roughly $20 billion within several days. LayerZero and blockchain security researchers have attributed this attack to the North Korean hacker group Lazarus Group; some of the stolen funds have been frozen, while the rest remain in circulation. Analysts also pointed out that DeFi TVL denominated in ETH has remained range-bound for an extended period, raising market concerns about whether DeFi can achieve organic growth sufficient to support institutional adoption. Furthermore, following each security incident, users tend to shift funds into USDT as a safe-haven asset—yet this trend has not yet significantly driven USDT’s market capitalization growth.