QCP: Market focus is shifting from the “signing-related positive news” of multiple macro events to the subsequent execution risks.

According to the latest macro-trend report released by QCP Group, market focus is shifting from the “signing-related optimism” surrounding multiple macro events toward post-signing execution risks. The U.S.-Iran Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been formally signed; Brent crude oil prices have retreated below USD 80 per barrel, easing tail risks. However, traffic volume through the Strait of Hormuz remains at just 14 transits—well below normal levels—and a 60-day technical negotiation window has now opened. Market pricing is pivoting toward actual tanker flow volumes and progress on compliance with the Lebanon ceasefire. The Federal Reserve unanimously held interest rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, but signaled its intention to keep rates higher for longer. The median dot-plot projection for 2026 was raised to 3.8% (up from 3.4%), with the range widened to 3.4%–4.4%; forward guidance was simultaneously scrapped. Core PCE inflation forecasts stand at 3.30%, and headline PCE at 3.82%—both above target—confirming that inflation—not growth—remains the primary constraint. Following its IPO, SpaceX’s stock price has declined approximately 27% from its peak of USD 211 to USD 155, yet it remains 14.5% above its IPO price of USD 135. Market narrative has shifted from IPO momentum to AI financing logic: its USD 20 billion note issuance is earmarked to refinance an xAI bridge loan, while the ~USD 60 billion Anysphere/Cursor transaction converts equity into acquisition currency. SpaceX is now being integrated into the AI capital formation cycle. In the crypto market, S