News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily Odaily News: After Hyperliquid opened third-party permissionless deployment of the HIP-4 prediction market layer on August 29, platform trading volume grew rapidly. In the first 28 days of August, HIP-4 had an average daily trading volume of approximately $545,000. After the permissionless deployment, daily trading volume rose to $1.97 million on August 31, with trading volume over the past 24 hours reaching $2.75 million. The number of active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841. Prediction market project Outcome currently accounts for nearly 85% of HIP-4's trading volume, and its $1 million trading incentive program has further driven liquidity growth. Hyperliquid's unified account system allows prediction markets to share the same account environment as perpetual contracts and HIP-3 assets, enabling users to hedge perpetual positions using prediction market contracts. Sports prediction markets could become the primary growth space for HIP-4. Previously, during the World Cup, HIP-4-related markets accumulated a total trading volume of $189.5 million, accounting for approximately 3% of global World Cup prediction market trading volume. The main constraint HIP-4 currently faces is regulatory access, rather than on-chain deployment. The U.S. market falls under regulatory frameworks such as the CFTC and SEC, and sports-related prediction markets in particular may trigger gambling-related regulatory scrutiny.
Odaily News, Ansem commented on X platform regarding "Kraken might become the first compliant CEX to deploy HIP-3," stating that if Hyperliquid aims to conduct compliant business in the US, it may need to find a partner that is both familiar with its product architecture and possesses complete regulatory qualifications. Kraken could be one of the potential choices.He pointed out that after Kraken's recent acquisitions of NinjaTrader and Bitnomial, its parent company Payward now holds FCM, DCM, and DCO licenses under the CFTC regulatory framework. Meanwhile, Hyperliquid has already established the corresponding infrastructure through HIP-3, meaning Kraken could theoretically serve as a new access point, offering related products in a manner similar to TradeXYZ. Arjun Sethi has consistently emphasized publicly that Kraken aims to play a "positive-sum game." Among existing US centralized exchanges, Kraken's potential may be severely underestimated. If this partnership actually materializes, it would be a major strategic move for Kraken to expand its market influence and add a significant business line.
Odaily News, Blockworks analyst Shaunda Devens stated on the X platform that Kraken may be testing Hyperliquid's HIP-3 (Builder-Deployed Perpetuals) new compliant deployment feature, potentially becoming one of the first centralized exchanges to explore this mechanism. BlockworksData shows that a deployer named "Kraken HIP-3 test DEX" has enabled permission management functionality (Star gating) on the Hyperliquid testnet and went live for testing on August 19. Currently, this test DEX has completed whitelist settings for 10 wallets, tested 3 of the 5 compliance control features, and registered a "Kraken Exchange Validator."Shaunda Devens noted that Hyperliquid has been continuously adding testnet features to support regulatory-compliant HIP-3 deployments, including whitelist management, canceling user orders, closing positions via reduce-only orders, and moving collateral. These capabilities are similar to the risk control mechanisms required by traditional financial institutions' compliant trading platforms.Although this is still in the testing phase, and any user could deploy a test DEX with a similar name, making it impossible to confirm it definitively belongs to Kraken, combined with Hyperliquid's recent expansion of xStocks functionality and Kraken's parent company Payward's involvement in related business initiatives, analysts believe Kraken may be testing HyperCore's new infrastructure targeting institutional and compliant markets.HIP-3 is a third-party deployed perpetual contract market framework introduced by Hyperliquid, allowing eligible developers to create independent perpetual trading markets on HyperCore's order book infrastructure. It is considered a key upgrade direction for Hyperliquid to expand into traditional assets and institutional trading scenarios. If large compliant exchanges like Kraken enter the HIP-3 ecosystem, it could further drive the integration of on-chain derivatives markets with traditional financial trading systems.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Lorenzo Valente, Head of Digital Asset Research at investment firm ARK Invest, stated that Hyperliquid is in discussions with the CFTC and SEC to facilitate the offering of perpetual futures on its public chain by U.S.-regulated companies. He suggested that Hyperliquid acquire Gemini to position it as a U.S.-regulated HIP-3/4 deployer. He noted that Gemini's current market value is approximately $450 million, representing a decline of over 85% from its $3.3 billion valuation at the time of its 2025 IPO. Hyperliquid could obtain Gemini's entire U.S. regulatory infrastructure—including the NYDFS Trust Charter, DCM, DCO, FCM, MTLs, and Broker-dealer—for approximately $450 million.He further proposed that Hyperliquid could use approximately 7.9 million HYPE tokens from its community reserve, valued at around $550 million at $70 per token, to complete the acquisition at a premium of roughly 20% over Gemini's current market value. Following the transaction, Gemini would handle KYC, custody, fiat on/off ramps, brokerage, clearing, and compliance for the U.S. market, while Hyperliquid L1 would provide the underlying market infrastructure, liquidity, and on-chain settlement. He cited Polymarket's acquisition of QCEX as a similar precedent for re-entering the U.S. market, and stated that the core of this potential deal is not acquiring an exchange, but rather securing the regulatory bridge for HIP-3/4 to enter the U.S. market.
Hyperliquid co-founder iliensinc responded to the abnormal SK Hynix pricing incident on Trade.xyz this morning, stating that Hyperliquid is a permissionless blockchain, and different teams can deploy and operate markets based on its infrastructure. Among them, the xyz:SKHYNIX perpetual contract was deployed and is operated by the XYZ team. The XYZ team is currently investigating the situation and will release updates once a conclusion is reached.Iliensinc also explained that the HIP-3 market deployer is responsible for providing data such as the mark price, oracle, and external perpetual contract price. Taking the pricing mechanism of a BTC perpetual contract as an example, the protocol provides the median of the latest on-chain transaction price, the best bid price, and the best ask price as one of three price components. The other two prices are provided by the deployer, and together these three influence the final mark price.
crypto venture capital fund Pantera Capital stated in a post that Hyperliquid's total addressable market is approximately $10 trillion in daily notional trading volume, including around $200 billion in 0DTE options and leveraged ETF trading, approximately $2 trillion in commodity derivatives trading, and around $8 trillion in foreign exchange derivatives trading.Pantera indicated that if Hyperliquid can consistently capture a low-single-digit percentage share of the aforementioned markets, its revenue potential could reach five times current levels. According to estimates, if the HIP-3 market achieves an annualized notional trading volume of $3.65 quadrillion and captures a 1% market share, under the assumptions of a combined fee rate of 2 basis points and Hyperliquid's economic split of 50%, the platform's revenue could reach approximately $3.7 billion.However, Pantera pointed out that regulation remains the biggest risk for Hyperliquid. Perpetual contracts are currently not fully open in the United States, and if the US promotes the legalization of related products in the future and introduces regulated platforms, Hyperliquid could face more intense competition, with some US user trading volume potentially shifting to compliant trading venues. Pantera believes Hyperliquid could also launch a regulated version targeting the US market in the future.
digital asset management firm Grayscale stated in its latest report that the decentralized trading platform Hyperliquid is rapidly evolving from a crypto perpetual contract exchange into a blockchain-based financial infrastructure platform. In the future, it may even challenge the traditional derivatives trading and exchange systems, growing into a "financial services giant."The report shows that Hyperliquid generated approximately $800 million in revenue in 2025, with a full-year perpetual contract trading volume of about $2.9 trillion and open interest of roughly $7 billion, capturing a significant share of the crypto derivatives market. Grayscale believes the platform is no longer limited to crypto trading. Through the HIP-3 and HIP-4 systems, it is expanding into tokenized stocks, commodities, and prediction markets, gradually building a 24/7 on-chain trading infrastructure.In another report, FalconX also pointed out that Hyperliquid is competing with traditional derivatives exchanges like the CME Group, as well as prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket, and is making progress in new markets like Pre-IPO.The report also emphasized that regulation remains a key variable. Although Hyperliquid currently restricts access for US users, as the regulatory framework gradually clarifies and institutions like Coinbase, Robinhood, and Kraken explore perpetual contract products, this sector may see broader growth potential in the future. (CoinDesk)
decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid has launched a pre-listing perpetual contract for SpaceX (SPCX-USDC) via Trade.xyz, sparking controversy over a global regulatory gap. The contract provides leveraged trading without requiring users to hold any SpaceX stock or authorization from the company. Initially priced at $150, corresponding to an implied valuation of approximately $1.78 trillion, the contract surged to $216 shortly after launch.According to reports, the contract is settled in USDC, with prices derived from market oracles and not linked to SpaceX's actual financials or equity structure. SpaceX itself has neither authorized nor participated in this market, yet its valuation is being priced and traded in real-time on-chain, raising concerns that "decentralized derivatives are taking over price discovery for private companies." This market originates from Hyperliquid's HIP-3 mechanism, suggesting that private company valuations may increasingly be re-priced by on-chain derivatives, while regulatory frameworks have yet to establish corresponding standards. (Forbes)
a report released by FalconX shows that the crypto derivatives platform Hyperliquid is expanding from perpetual contracts to pre-IPO trading, prediction contracts, and tokenized real-world assets, beginning to compete with traditional exchanges and prediction market operators. The report indicates that Hyperliquid's HIP-3 market allows users to trade stocks, commodities, forex, and pre-IPO contracts 24/7, with traders already using it for pre-IPO speculation on companies such as Cerebras, Anthropic, and SpaceX. The HIP-4 outcome market allows traders to place binary bets on political, economic, and crypto events.In terms of capital inflows, the HYPE spot ETFs launched by 21Shares and Bitwise have attracted a combined $53 million in inflows within just a few trading days. Hyperliquid's USDC partnership with Coinbase and Circle is expected to generate up to $160 million in annual protocol revenue. FalconX warns that CME and ICE have expressed concerns to regulators about potential market manipulation risks on the Hyperliquid market. Nevertheless, Hyperliquid continues to lead the decentralized perpetual contract market in terms of trading volume, revenue, and total value locked. (CoinDesk)
the Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) has announced it has formally submitted a comment letter regarding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets. The HPC advocates for establishing clear compliance pathways for decentralized prediction markets built on public, permissionless blockchains, while simultaneously refining the regulatory framework for centralized prediction markets.In its comment letter, the HPC calls on the CFTC to develop more flexible, function-oriented rules tailored to decentralized market structures; to establish clear legal channels for U.S. market participants to access decentralized prediction markets; and to support U.S. leadership in the field of decentralized finance innovation.The HPC states that prediction markets are a natural extension of the federal derivatives framework. They help participants directly manage their economic risk exposure to real-world events and aggregate dispersed information through continuously updated market prices. Their price discovery capabilities have been widely validated and, in some cases, outperform traditional polling and expert forecasts.The HPC points out that decentralized prediction markets based on public blockchains offer advantages such as transparency, non-custodial operation, and high resilience. They do not rely on centralized operators to hold user funds, nor do they present single points of failure. All transactions are recorded in real-time on a public ledger, facilitating both regulatory oversight and market surveillance, while market access standards are more transparent and uniform.The HPC emphasizes that the current rulemaking process should not codify reliance on single exchange operators, custodial intermediaries, or traditional settlement monitoring mechanisms. Doing so would prevent U.S. users from legally participating in decentralized prediction markets. The HPC states it will continue to promote compliant access to Hyperliquid and HIP-4 Outcome Markets for U.S. market participants, and will maintain ongoing communication with the CFTC.