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Odaily report: Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that market sentiment deteriorated noticeably within a single day, with the Fear and Greed Index falling from 51 (neutral) to 30 (fear), the lowest level since mid-August. Over the same period, Bitcoin dropped about 4% to 5% within 24 hours, briefly touching a six-week low near $76,500; Ethereum fell below $2,200, and total liquidations across the market exceeded $1.6 billion in the past 24 hours.Darkfost noted that historically, periods of market pessimism often correspond to accumulation opportunities, but the current index reading of 30 only represents fear and has not yet entered the extreme fear zone below 25, suggesting market sentiment may remain under pressure. In addition, this round of decline was partly triggered by Binance's $6.3 billion hack incident and did not stem entirely from a clear deterioration in market fundamentals.
Odaily reports: Crypto analyst Darkfost posted that the Bitcoin Unified Sentiment Index has fallen back into negative territory, currently at -11 and continuing to decline, indicating that the previous extreme greed phase has passed and bearish market sentiment is beginning to accumulate.Darkfost noted that the current index reading remains within a relatively neutral range but clearly reflects deteriorating sentiment in the Bitcoin market. The index fluctuates between -100 and +100, combining the Fear and Greed Index and CoinGecko sentiment survey data, and is standardized based on a rolling one-year window.
Odaily News: Trader Killa stated on X platform that Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) supply recently reached "overheated" levels, a situation similar to the price action in 2023 after the market broke away from the macro bottom, potentially serving as another signal of market bottom formation.Killa pointed out that after Bitcoin short-term holder supply reached similar highs in 2023, BTC price continued to rise and maintained an uptrend in higher timeframe (HTF) trends. The current market structure is quite similar to previous cycles, and investors should not overly rely on the Fear and Greed Index to judge market direction. Killa stated that market sentiment may remain irrational for extended periods, and short-term sentiment indicators do not necessarily reflect long-term trends.
CryptoQuant analyst nocoffeenobrain stated that crypto market sentiment has undergone a significant shift, with the Fear and Greed Index rapidly climbing from around 30 in August to the current 74. Meanwhile, BTC dominance has dropped to 53.8% and continues its downward trend. Historical data shows that when the sentiment index rises while Bitcoin's dominance remains flat or declines, market capital and momentum tend to flow into sectors outside of Bitcoin;
According to BeInCrypto, CryptoQuant data shows that centralized exchange stablecoin reserves fell from a high of about $80 billion at the end of 2025 to about $64 billion, shrinking by about $16 billion (about 20%). Among them, Binance showed relative resilience, with its stablecoin share rising from just over 60% to 68.5%, while platforms such as Coinbase, Bybit, and OKX saw more significant reductions. Meanwhile, on-chain analysis platform Santiment detected that pessimistic sentiments such as "crypto is dead" on X and Reddit continued to intensify, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index currently at 46, still in the fear zone. The total stablecoin supply also fell from a high of nearly $316 billion in May to $300.89 billion, but the decline was far lower than on the exchange side, indicating that some liquidity may have shifted on-chain rather than exiting completely.
Odaily News: Despite the S&P 500's strong gains this year and continued capital inflows, historic seasonal selling periods, escalating geopolitical conflicts, and emerging consumer weakness are prompting Wall Street strategists to issue密集 risk warnings.The Chicago Board Options Exchange Volatility Index (VIX) fell sharply to 14.2 last Friday, marking its lowest level since 2026. The index, which measures expected market volatility over the next 30 days by tracking S&P 500 option prices, typically signals that market sentiment has settled into absolute calm when it declines. Jonathan Krinsky, Managing Director and Chief Market Technical Analyst at BTIG, noted that the performance of U.S. stocks in 2026 could be described as "unusual." Since last October, the market has not experienced an extreme single-day selloff where declining stocks accounted for as much as 80% of total volume.Quantitative trading giant Susquehanna described the current volatility reset as a "substantial" decline. The firm pointed out that cross-asset and geopolitical risks remain active, with two-month implied volatility slightly rebounding to 13.5%, approaching levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran conflict.Wall Street institutions generally view mid-August to mid-October as a historically turbulent period for the market. According to BTIG's statistical model, in every midterm election year since 1990, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has experienced at least a 7% drawdown from its average high on August 18 through mid-October.
Bitcoin has fallen below the $77,000 mark, hitting a low of approximately $76,720. Analysts attribute the market decline primarily to multiple macroeconomic pressures, including the renewed escalation of tensions between the US and Iran, rising inflation concerns, and increased risk aversion across risk assets. Former US President Donald Trump issued a strong warning to Iran on social media, intensifying geopolitical uncertainty.Meanwhile, rising oil prices have further elevated inflation expectations, with Brent crude climbing to around $111 and WTI rising above $107. This has sparked concerns that the Federal Reserve may maintain higher interest rates for a longer period.The current selling pressure is also compounded by factors such as rising US Treasury yields, a strengthening US dollar, and ETF outflows. Data shows that Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1 billion in the week ending May 17, ending six consecutive weeks of net inflows.In terms of market sentiment, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index has fallen back to 27, re-entering the "fear zone." Analysts believe that short-term trends will remain highly dependent on macroeconomic data and policy expectations. However, some institutions view the current correction as a "healthy digestion" period, suggesting the long-term structure remains unchanged. (The Block)
According to The Block, Bitcoin rose approximately 6% this week, briefly reaching $76,300—the highest level in nearly two months—yet the Crypto Fear & Greed Index remains at 21 (“Extreme Fear”). Multiple institutional analysts characterize this rally as “liquidity-driven” rather than a structural strengthening. Glassnode notes that while spot demand and ETF inflows have improved, the recovery lacks depth, institutional participation remains cautious, and options market positioning continues to favor downside protection. Bitfinex attributes this price increase primarily to concentrated buying by “Strategists” (who purchased 13,927 BTC last week), rather than an organic rebound in demand. Analysts broadly view $75,000 as a critical support level; if structural buying wanes and this level fails to hold, prices could retreat to the $70,000–$71,000 range. On the macro front, the Federal Reserve’s policy trajectory and the June FOMC meeting are seen as the next key risk catalysts.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, Bitcoin’s Composite Market Index (BCMI) is currently testing a significant historical pivot zone, having declined into the 0.2–0.3 range—indicating that BTC is in one of its historically deepest undervaluation zones. The BCMI comprises MVRV (30% weight), NUPL (25% weight), SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index. This correction has reset both realized value and investor sentiment to levels not seen since early 2023. He also notes that the 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains in a downtrend; confirmation of selling pressure exhaustion and price stabilization will require the SMA’s slope to flatten.