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Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict—now lasting approximately six weeks—the Bitcoin market is clearly bifurcating into two camps: “passive buyers,” represented by Strategy and spot ETFs, continue accumulating BTC, while whales, mining companies, and certain sovereign holders are shifting toward selling. The selling pressure is evident: whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to substantial net selling, with their year-to-date holdings changing from roughly +200,000 BTC to –188,000 BTC; publicly listed mining firms, under mounting cost pressures, have also concentrated their selling—offloading over 19,000 BTC in a single week. Additionally, sovereign holders such as Bhutan have sold approximately 70% of their Bitcoin reserves since October 2024. Analysis suggests that although market sentiment briefly plunged into the “extreme fear” zone, Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound between $65,000 and $73,000, indicating that this “floor” is primarily propped up by a narrow base of institutional buying. Currently, the buyer base continues to contract, and the market’s next directional move will hinge on whether institutional inflows can sustain momentum and break through key resistance levels.