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Gate Ventures: Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Policy Divergence, Market Uncertainty Rises
according to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, the global market performance is generally stable, but inflationary pressures and policy divergences are rising simultaneously. The S&P 500 topped the 7,200 mark for the first time. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but showed major internal divisions. Compounded by volatile oil prices due to supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations of "stagflation" have intensified. Against this backdrop, the crypto market remains in a consolidation pattern, with BTC largely flat and ETH experiencing a slight pullback. ETF fund flows are diverging, and market sentiment remains cautious.At the industry level, the CLARITY Act has clarified the boundaries for stablecoin yields, further promoting a clearer regulatory framework. EURC is seeing rapid growth in Spanish retail payment scenarios, indicating that localized stablecoin applications are coming to market. The Solana ecosystem is advancing its post-quantum signature scheme, Falcon, reflecting the industry's forward-looking layout for long-term security. In terms of investment and financing, 15 deals were completed this week, with a total volume of $167 million, representing a 205% increase week-over-week. The infrastructure track continues to dominate. Among these, Four Pillars completed a Series A funding round to strengthen institutional-grade research and infrastructure capabilities. Belo secured $14 million in a funding round led by Tether, accelerating the expansion of its stablecoin payment network in Latin America. Overall, capital continues to concentrate towards infrastructure and cross-asset platforms, driving the industry's accelerated evolution towards institutionalization and multi-asset integration.
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
HTX DeepThink: Rate Cut Expectations Delayed to Post-September, Cryptocurrency Market Structure Divergence Intensifies
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
Analysis: Bitcoin Weekly Chart Shows Rare Bullish Divergence, Price Could Return to $90,000
Bitcoin (BTC) has formed only the second "weekly bullish divergence" in its history on the weekly chart. This technical signal previously preceded a 715% surge in BTC following the FTX collapse. This divergence indicates that while prices are still falling, momentum indicators are starting to recover, suggesting selling pressure may be weakening. Analysis points out:1. BTC's weekly chart shows a rare bullish divergence, with a potential target around $90,000.2. The current price is holding near the 200-week moving average (approximately $62,000). Historically, this level has often served as the bottom area during bear markets (2015, 2018, 2020).3. The previous weekly divergence occurred after the FTX collapse in 2022, after which Bitcoin rallied from around $15,500 to $126,200, a gain of 715%.Technical analysis shows that BTC's weekly RSI has recovered from oversold territory to form a higher low, while the price continues to decline, constituting a bullish divergence signal. Analysts suggest that if BTC breaks through the $64,000-$65,000 range, it could first target $71,500-$73,000, and potentially reach the CME gap at $79,000. The area around the 50-week moving average, approximately $91,755, is seen as the next potential resistance level, while the region above $90,000 also represents long-term resistance.Despite the bullish signal, Bitcoin remains in a weekly bear flag downtrend. If it breaks below the descending channel, the price could fall back to around $50,000 in the short term, unless it reclaims the lower trendline to form support. Overall, BTC is at a critical technical juncture with both bullish and bearish factors at play. Investors need to monitor the dynamic interplay between support at the 200-week moving average and resistance at the 50-week moving average. (Cointelegraph)
Buy-Sell Divergence: A Newly Created Address Withdrew 180,000 HYPE from Coinbase and Staked It, While Another Address Sold 238,811 HYPE for a $1.3 Million Profit
: According to Onchain Lens monitoring, some whales or institutions are buying HYPE, while others are selling. A newly created address withdrew 180,000 HYPE, worth $13.18 million, from Coinbase and staked them. Another address sold 238,811 HYPE, worth $16.3 million, realizing a profit of $1.3 million. The address still has 10,000 HYPE staked.
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)
HTX DeepThink: Rate Cut Expectations Delayed to Post-September, Cryptocurrency Market Structure Divergence Intensifies
Chloe (@ChloeTalk1), a columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzes that the current macro framework for the crypto market has shifted from “liquidity trades awaiting rate cuts” to a constraining environment characterized by “higher-for-longer interest rates + sticky inflation + war-related shocks.” According to the latest Reuters survey, most economists have pushed back their expectations for rate cuts to after September, with nearly one-third believing no cuts will occur this year. The primary reason is that the Middle East conflict has driven up energy prices, pushing inflation trajectories higher once again and thereby constraining the Federal Reserve’s policy space. This shift directly undermines the two key narratives previously supporting crypto assets: expectations of liquidity easing and a declining interest-rate path. Elevated oil prices, coupled with consecutive upward revisions to PCE inflation expectations, increase the likelihood that interest rates will remain high—or even extend their elevated period—leading to a higher discount rate and shrinking risk budgets. As a result, marginal capital inflows into the crypto market are diminishing, and high-volatility assets broadly face mounting pressure.
US-Iran Conflict: Six Weeks In, Bitcoin Market Shows Divergence—Institutions Keep Buying, While Whales and Miners Accelerate Selling
According to CoinDesk, against the backdrop of the ongoing U.S.-Iran geopolitical conflict—now lasting approximately six weeks—the Bitcoin market is clearly bifurcating into two camps: “passive buyers,” represented by Strategy and spot ETFs, continue accumulating BTC, while whales, mining companies, and certain sovereign holders are shifting toward selling. The selling pressure is evident: whale addresses holding 1,000–10,000 BTC have shifted from net buying to substantial net selling, with their year-to-date holdings changing from roughly +200,000 BTC to –188,000 BTC; publicly listed mining firms, under mounting cost pressures, have also concentrated their selling—offloading over 19,000 BTC in a single week. Additionally, sovereign holders such as Bhutan have sold approximately 70% of their Bitcoin reserves since October 2024. Analysis suggests that although market sentiment briefly plunged into the “extreme fear” zone, Bitcoin’s price has remained range-bound between $65,000 and $73,000, indicating that this “floor” is primarily propped up by a narrow base of institutional buying. Currently, the buyer base continues to contract, and the market’s next directional move will hinge on whether institutional inflows can sustain momentum and break through key resistance levels.
Related news
US Stocks and BTC Move in Opposite Directions; HTX Will Host a Live Broadcast to Analyze the Causes Behind This Market Divergence
According to an official social media announcement, HTX will host an online debate titled “U.S. Stocks Keep Hitting New Highs, While BTC Falls Below $60,000: Behind This Divergence—Is It a Narrative Shift or Capital Abandonment?” at 20:00 (UTC+8) today.
Analysis: Bitcoin Weekly Chart Shows Rare Bullish Divergence, Price Could Return to $90,000
Bitcoin (BTC) has formed only the second "weekly bullish divergence" in its history on the weekly chart. This technical signal previously preceded a 715% surge in BTC following the FTX collapse. This divergence indicates that while prices are still falling, momentum indicators are starting to recover, suggesting selling pressure may be weakening. Analysis points out:1. BTC's weekly chart shows a rare bullish divergence, with a potential target around $90,000.2. The current price is holding near the 200-week moving average (approximately $62,000). Historically, this level has often served as the bottom area during bear markets (2015, 2018, 2020).3. The previous weekly divergence occurred after the FTX collapse in 2022, after which Bitcoin rallied from around $15,500 to $126,200, a gain of 715%.Technical analysis shows that BTC's weekly RSI has recovered from oversold territory to form a higher low, while the price continues to decline, constituting a bullish divergence signal. Analysts suggest that if BTC breaks through the $64,000-$65,000 range, it could first target $71,500-$73,000, and potentially reach the CME gap at $79,000. The area around the 50-week moving average, approximately $91,755, is seen as the next potential resistance level, while the region above $90,000 also represents long-term resistance.Despite the bullish signal, Bitcoin remains in a weekly bear flag downtrend. If it breaks below the descending channel, the price could fall back to around $50,000 in the short term, unless it reclaims the lower trendline to form support. Overall, BTC is at a critical technical juncture with both bullish and bearish factors at play. Investors need to monitor the dynamic interplay between support at the 200-week moving average and resistance at the 50-week moving average. (Cointelegraph)
Buy-Sell Divergence: A Newly Created Address Withdrew 180,000 HYPE from Coinbase and Staked It, While Another Address Sold 238,811 HYPE for a $1.3 Million Profit
: According to Onchain Lens monitoring, some whales or institutions are buying HYPE, while others are selling. A newly created address withdrew 180,000 HYPE, worth $13.18 million, from Coinbase and staked them. Another address sold 238,811 HYPE, worth $16.3 million, realizing a profit of $1.3 million. The address still has 10,000 HYPE staked.
Bitcoin’s $70,000 Key Level Sparks Market Divergence: Whether This Support Holds May Determine Price Direction
According to Cointelegraph, industry participants hold markedly divergent views on the current cryptocurrency market trend. Economist Timothy Peterson stated that Bitcoin may rise gradually over the summer, reaching a short-term peak by the end of July and exhibiting relatively muted performance.
Gate Ventures: Stock Indices Hit New Highs Amid Policy Divergence, Market Uncertainty Rises
according to Gate Ventures' latest weekly report, the global market performance is generally stable, but inflationary pressures and policy divergences are rising simultaneously. The S&P 500 topped the 7,200 mark for the first time. The Fed kept interest rates unchanged but showed major internal divisions. Compounded by volatile oil prices due to supply shocks in the Strait of Hormuz, market expectations of "stagflation" have intensified. Against this backdrop, the crypto market remains in a consolidation pattern, with BTC largely flat and ETH experiencing a slight pullback. ETF fund flows are diverging, and market sentiment remains cautious.At the industry level, the CLARITY Act has clarified the boundaries for stablecoin yields, further promoting a clearer regulatory framework. EURC is seeing rapid growth in Spanish retail payment scenarios, indicating that localized stablecoin applications are coming to market. The Solana ecosystem is advancing its post-quantum signature scheme, Falcon, reflecting the industry's forward-looking layout for long-term security. In terms of investment and financing, 15 deals were completed this week, with a total volume of $167 million, representing a 205% increase week-over-week. The infrastructure track continues to dominate. Among these, Four Pillars completed a Series A funding round to strengthen institutional-grade research and infrastructure capabilities. Belo secured $14 million in a funding round led by Tether, accelerating the expansion of its stablecoin payment network in Latin America. Overall, capital continues to concentrate towards infrastructure and cross-asset platforms, driving the industry's accelerated evolution towards institutionalization and multi-asset integration.
Analysis: Bitcoin Stalled at Key Resistance, ETF Outflows and Fed Divergence Amplify Market Caution
Bitcoin remained near $76,000 on Thursday. After the Federal Reserve held interest rates steady, market attention quickly shifted to internal policy divergence and macroeconomic uncertainty. Analysts noted that Bitcoin remains suppressed below the key resistance range of $78,000 to $79,000, lacking short-term breakout momentum.Thomas Perfumo, Chief Economist at Kraken, stated that the market is currently more focused on policy uncertainty stemming from internal "divisions" within the Federal Reserve rather than the inaction itself. This is particularly true against the backdrop of Chairman Jerome Powell's continued tenure and the potential expectation of Kevin Warsh succeeding him, creating a lack of clear policy transition.Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin remains "trapped" below the True Market Mean, with resistance concentrated in the $78,000 to $79,000 range and support lying between $65,000 and $70,000. While selling pressure has eased, demand remains insufficient to support a sustained upward breakout.On the macro front, the Fed has shown rare, severe internal disagreements, interpreted by the market as rising uncertainty over the inflation path. Analysts from institutions like Bitget Wallet and 21Shares point out that the expectation of "higher rates for longer" is suppressing risk asset performance, pushing the crypto market into a wait-and-see phase.Regarding capital flows, U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for three consecutive days, with a single-day outflow of approximately $138 million on April 29. Ethereum ETFs saw outflows of about $87.7 million over the same period. Although individual products still saw inflows, the overall trend indicates cooling institutional demand.Meanwhile, CME open interest and ETF assets under management have stabilized but have yet to show strong signals of capital return. In the derivatives market, short positions in perpetual contracts have reached an all-time high, suggesting a potential squeeze if sentiment improves. However, the current market remains dominated by a low-volatility, low-confidence consolidation structure.Overall, Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war between an improving support structure and weak demand. Sustained ETF outflows, policy uncertainty, and macroeconomic risks collectively suppress its ability to break through the key resistance range. (The Block)