News linked to both this project and an event.
QCP released a macro market analysis stating that negotiations at the Strait of Hormuz have stalled, with attacks between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces expanding the scope of the conflict. Although Automatic Identification System (AIS) data shows that physical shipments near the strait have nearly halted, shadow fleet estimates indicate that daily oil transit through the strait remains between 3.7 million and 13 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) has dropped to 283 million barrels, representing a year-over-year decline of 30.5%.
According to the market weekly report released by market maker Wintermute (@wintermute_t), the macro and crypto markets experienced multiple shocks over the past week: On the macro level, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates unchanged at 3.50-3.75% with a 9-3 vote. Officials Hammack, Kashkari, and Logan rarely voted together to support a 25bp rate hike, marking dissent at the second meeting since Chairman Warsh took office. The 30-year US Treasury yield once touched 5.24%, hitting a new high since July 2007, while the 10-year yielded 4.67%. The yield curve bear-steepened, indicating market doubts about the Federal Reserve's inflation credibility. On the stock market level, AI leveraged fund Situational Awareness (under Leopold Aschenbrenner) encountered margin calls due to leverage as high as 400%. Its size plummeted from $45 billion in early July to about $10 billion, forced to sell all public positions to Citadel at a discount. Long positions in AI infrastructure such as SK Hynix and CoreWeave fell sharply, partially explaining the reason for the continuous decline in chip stocks in July. On the crypto level, BTC fell 2.84% weekly and ETH fell 3.63% weekly, but Wintermute believes major sellers are nearly exhausted, and the painful trade direction has turned upward. ETH has outperformed BTC for two consecutive months,
According to Chaoxiang Research, UBS released a SemiBytes Flash Note on July 20, 2026, judging that the semiconductor sector is transitioning from a broad-based rally to a phase of severe divergence, while the AI-themed crowded trade continues. The report covers five core topics. The release of Kimi K3 drives another upgrade in open-source model scale; longer context windows boost demand for HBM and storage, with NVIDIA being the biggest beneficiary. Micron's cumulative free cash flow over the next few years is expected to exceed $400 billion; after the buyback ban is lifted, the theoretical buyback ratio could exceed 40%, which is not yet fully priced in by the market. Divergence within the analog chip sector is intensifying; stocks with higher AI exposure have gained a 42x P/E premium, while valuations for stocks with automotive and industrial exposure remain near historical averages. Position crowding data shows that Lam Research, Broadcom, Seagate, Micron, and AMD remain in a state of extreme long positioning crowding.