News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Wintermute's weekly market report, Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, breaking below $82,500 and retesting $80,000 before closing at approximately $80,500. ETH dropped 3.40%, closing at around $2,330. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $636 million on Thursday, the largest single-day outflow since June, coinciding with a 2.6% drop in the Nasdaq on the same day. On the macro front, following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, Brent crude surged 5.66% to $116.72, with oil prices displacing AI financing as the primary market concern. Wintermute noted that as of October 18, markets price in roughly an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this Wednesday, alongside expectations for a December rate hike. The Fed's forward guidance regarding December represents the key risk. Technically, BTC must reclaim the $82,000–$82,500 zone. Should the $80,000 level fail, the next support sits at $76,000, with a breakdown likely pushing prices to just over $70,000. The firm stated it is temporarily not taking a bearish view but will remain cautious until the FOMC meeting concludes and BTC reclaims $82,500. Key upcoming events include the October 28 FOMC meeting, October 29 reports for Q3 GDP and September PCE data, and the October 30 monthly options expiration.
According to CoinDesk, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has continued to climb, with some analysts forecasting it will reach 6% (it last hit this level in 2000). Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, emphasized that the drivers behind the yield increase are critical: if the rise stems from concerns over fiscal deficits and term premiums, investors may shift to alternative assets such as Bitcoin, constituting a bullish development; if it stems from the Federal Reserve resuming its rate-hiking cycle, it would repeat the 2022 scenario of Bitcoin plummeting 64%. Data shows that since the end of 2023, the 10-year yield has risen by 135 basis points to 5.23%, while Bitcoin’s price simultaneously doubled to around $86,000, validating the "decoupling" narrative between Bitcoin and Treasuries amid fiscal concerns. Dan Niles, founder of Niles Investment Management, also noted that the U.S. fiscal deficit accounts for approximately 6% of GDP. Coupled with tech giants undertaking large-scale fundraising that competes with Treasuries for the same pool of capital, yields will continue to be pushed higher.
According to Chaohang Research, JPMorgan’s September 24, 2026 research report indicates that U.S. corporate financing surplus in Q2 2026 approached 2% of GDP, marking the highest level for non-crisis periods since data tracking began in 1952. Non-financial corporate surplus stood at approximately 1.5%, the highest for non-crisis periods since 1958. Global equity buybacks are projected to reach $1.7 trillion in 2026, with U.S. corporations accounting for $1.3 trillion. Bitcoin’s production cost is approximately $85,000; after trading below this threshold for 280 consecutive days, the price has finally broken through. Network hash rate and mining difficulty have decreased by roughly 19% and 15%, respectively, from their peaks last October. JPMorgan notes that cash flow growth outpaces capital expenditures, indicating that the corporate sector as a whole does not require additional financing. This financing surplus underpins share repurchases, particularly among firms outside the technology sector. AI-driven capital expenditures are crowding out other spending, keeping overall capex growth moderate, and the exuberance of the late 1990s has yet to return. Bitcoin miners are structurally shifting toward AI operations, lowering forced selling risks, though hash rate expansion has decelerated. Bond futures momentum indicators have moved into more extreme bearish zones, with standard deviation scores for the 10-year U.S. Treasury and German Bunds reverting to -1.7 and -1.5, respectively.
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
According to Bitcoin News, which cited an opinion piece from The Wall Street Journal, legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's proposal to increase the size of a single long-term Treasury bond repurchase transaction from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, arguing that the measure could overstep its bounds in liquidity management and cross into intervention aimed at suppressing long-term yields. Druckenmiller pointed out that with inflation still running above target, the U.S. fiscal deficit accounting for roughly 6% of GDP, and federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, rising yields may accurately reflect the bond market's rational pricing of deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions. He warned that if markets believe the Treasury is defending a specific yield level, traders could repeatedly test the limits of government intervention, forcing the repurchase volume to keep expanding. He also maintained that the Treasury's strategy of buying back long-term Treasuries while simultaneously issuing short-term T-bills effectively strips duration risk from the market, closely resembling a small-scale quantitative easing program executed directly by the Treasury. His advice is to allow the bond market to determine the government's financing costs, and to resolve fundamental fiscal imbalances through deficit reduction, entitlement reform, and enhanced debt management.
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned on Friday that the U.S. annual budget deficit is as high as $2 trillion, with approximately $10 trillion in debt urgently requiring refinancing. Without a change in course, a debt crisis could arrive "in three years, plus or minus two years." In terms of asset allocation, Dalio recommends that investors: • Reduce bond holdings to mitigate debt risks • Increase gold positions, raising the allocation to 10%–15% of the portfolio • Hold a small amount of Bitcoin to hedge against government credit risk Dalio also urged the United States to cut its budget deficit from the current level of approximately 6% of GDP down to 3%, through measures including spending reductions, tax hikes, and lower interest rates. Following these comments, gold prices rose on Friday to their highest level since May, while Bitcoin surpassed $77,000, marking its largest weekly gain since 2023.