Wintermute: BTC down for a third consecutive week; FOMC and PCE to determine short-term direction

According to Wintermute's weekly market report, Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, marking its third consecutive weekly decline, breaking below $82,500 and retesting $80,000 before closing at approximately $80,500. ETH dropped 3.40%, closing at around $2,330. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $636 million on Thursday, the largest single-day outflow since June, coinciding with a 2.6% drop in the Nasdaq on the same day. On the macro front, following Houthi attacks on Saudi oil infrastructure, Brent crude surged 5.66% to $116.72, with oil prices displacing AI financing as the primary market concern. Wintermute noted that as of October 18, markets price in roughly an 86% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady this Wednesday, alongside expectations for a December rate hike. The Fed's forward guidance regarding December represents the key risk. Technically, BTC must reclaim the $82,000–$82,500 zone. Should the $80,000 level fail, the next support sits at $76,000, with a breakdown likely pushing prices to just over $70,000. The firm stated it is temporarily not taking a bearish view but will remain cautious until the FOMC meeting concludes and BTC reclaims $82,500. Key upcoming events include the October 28 FOMC meeting, October 29 reports for Q3 GDP and September PCE data, and the October 30 monthly options expiration.