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JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
Druckenmiller Criticizes U.S. Treasury's Expansion of Long-Term Treasury Repo Operations: Could Evolve Into 'De Facto QE'
According to Bitcoin News, which cited an opinion piece from The Wall Street Journal, legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller criticized U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's proposal to increase the size of a single long-term Treasury bond repurchase transaction from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, arguing that the measure could overstep its bounds in liquidity management and cross into intervention aimed at suppressing long-term yields. Druckenmiller pointed out that with inflation still running above target, the U.S. fiscal deficit accounting for roughly 6% of GDP, and federal debt exceeding $40 trillion, rising yields may accurately reflect the bond market's rational pricing of deteriorating U.S. fiscal conditions. He warned that if markets believe the Treasury is defending a specific yield level, traders could repeatedly test the limits of government intervention, forcing the repurchase volume to keep expanding. He also maintained that the Treasury's strategy of buying back long-term Treasuries while simultaneously issuing short-term T-bills effectively strips duration risk from the market, closely resembling a small-scale quantitative easing program executed directly by the Treasury. His advice is to allow the bond market to determine the government's financing costs, and to resolve fundamental fiscal imbalances through deficit reduction, entitlement reform, and enhanced debt management.
Bridgewater's Ray Dalio Warns US Debt Crisis Could Arrive Within Three Years, Advises Reducing Bond Allocations and Increasing Gold and Bitcoin Holdings
Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio warned on Friday that the U.S. annual budget deficit is as high as $2 trillion, with approximately $10 trillion in debt urgently requiring refinancing. Without a change in course, a debt crisis could arrive "in three years, plus or minus two years." In terms of asset allocation, Dalio recommends that investors: • Reduce bond holdings to mitigate debt risks • Increase gold positions, raising the allocation to 10%–15% of the portfolio • Hold a small amount of Bitcoin to hedge against government credit risk Dalio also urged the United States to cut its budget deficit from the current level of approximately 6% of GDP down to 3%, through measures including spending reductions, tax hikes, and lower interest rates. Following these comments, gold prices rose on Friday to their highest level since May, while Bitcoin surpassed $77,000, marking its largest weekly gain since 2023.
JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
Bank of America: The Debate Over the Fed's Rate-Hike Path, the Communication Paradox Between Warsh and Waller
According to Chaoxiang Research, a September 4, 2026 research report from BofA Securities notes that Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole and Governor Waller’s dovish remarks create a communication paradox. Drawing on the "Cohen Day or Bernanke Day" analogy, Warsh suggested the rate-hike path could pivot toward a more aggressive Cohen trajectory, offering further directional guidance to repair credibility damage from July, while Waller freely outlined a state-dependent policy rule. BofA believes that the clearer the explanation of the rule, the less necessity there is to steer the market; greater transparency equates to fewer commitments. BofA anticipates the ECB will conclude its tightening cycle after a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, pivoting to rate cuts in 2027. The UK’s 2026 growth forecast has been revised upward to 1.2%, though energy shocks sustain the risk of rate hikes at the November, December, and February meetings. US Treasuries have breached $40 trillion, with interest expenses now surpassing defense and healthcare spending; the debt feedback loop represents a gradually accumulating process. The Philippines’ fiscal deficit may expand to 6.1% of GDP in 2026, the Czech Republic could hike rates at most one more time, and Poland will hold rates steady. Divergence across the global macro landscape remains the overarching theme.
Nomura: Warsh’s Hawkish Debut Emphasizes Inflation; August Data May Keep Fed On Hold
According to ChaXiang Research, a Nomura Securities note dated August 28, 2026, indicated that Fed Chair Warsh emphasized the importance of the inflation target during his hawkish debut at Jackson Hole, hinting that policy may need to respond if inflation does not fall at a sufficient pace. However, he did not explicitly signal an imminent rate hike. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield spiked 7 basis points following the remarks, as markets raised the probability of a September rate hike from 30% to over 50%. Nomura expects August core PCE to rise approximately 0.2% month-over-month, which would be sufficient to justify the Fed keeping rates unchanged, though its sensitivity to incoming data has increased significantly. Warsh downplayed the significance of recent benign inflation readings, stating he does not foresee any improvement in the trend. He unexpectedly minimized the cooling of wage growth, noting that wages have long failed to serve as an effective indicator of underlying inflation trends. On the economic front, Warsh struck an optimistic tone, describing consumption as "healthy," capital expenditure as "growing rapidly," and the labor market as "consistent with full employment." Nomura forecasts a 60,000 increase in August non-farm payrolls, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.0%, and has revised up its third-quarter GDP nowcast to 3.6%. Nomura maintains its baseline assumption that the Fed will hold rates steady, but Warsh's hawkish tone implies that if the disinflationary process stalls, a rate hike could be placed back on the agenda.
Switzerland Has 1,766 Blockchain Companies in 2025, with Financial Sector Value Added of CHF 74 Billion
Odaily News: The Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA) began operations on January 1, 2009, with unified responsibility for banking, insurance, anti-money laundering, and other regulatory functions. Its current regulatory scope covers banks, securities firms, insurance institutions, asset management companies, and digital asset enterprises. The regulatory framework was adopted in 2007 under relevant legislation.\nIn 2024, Switzerland's financial sector value added reached CHF 74 billion, accounting for approximately 9% of the country's GDP. In 2025, the industry provided about 222,800 full-time equivalent positions, and Swiss bank clients' securities holdings reached CHF 8.561 trillion, of which CHF 4.008 trillion belonged to foreign clients.\nSwitzerland has established a tiered regulatory pathway for fintech companies, allowing businesses to choose between a sandbox, a fintech license, a FINMA-recognized self-regulatory organization, or a full banking and securities license. The sandbox can accommodate specific deposit-taking businesses of up to CHF 1 million, while the fintech license permits eligible companies to accept public deposits or crypto assets of up to CHF 100 million.\nAs of 2025, Switzerland is home to 503 fintech companies and 1,766 blockchain companies. That year, Switzerland and Liechtenstein attracted CHF 185 million in fintech venture capital, with CHF 81 million directed to distributed ledger technology companies. Switzerland plans to establish license categories for payment instruments and crypto institutions, though as of August 11, 2026, the relevant framework has yet to be finalized. (Bitcoin.com News)
Goldman Sachs: AI Enterprise Adoption Rate Rises to 21.5%, Data Center Construction Jobs Increase by 290,000
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' July AI Adoption Tracker Report shows that the U.S. corporate AI adoption rate rose to 21.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and is expected to reach 24.3% in six months. The Gallup survey shows that 47% of U.S. employees stated that their organizations have adopted AI, higher than 41% in the previous quarter. Semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $834 billion by the end of 2026; AI-related hardware investment has surpassed 2022 levels, reaching $463 billion, accounting for 1.4% of GDP. Data center-related construction jobs have increased by 290,000 since 2022, with an average monthly increase of about 14,000. Layoffs caused by AI cumulatively reached 102,000 in the first half of the year. Goldman Sachs believes that AI is moving from the proof-of-concept stage to the actual deployment stage, economic penetration is accelerating, but the labor impact remains concentrated in specific industries. Academic research shows that AI boosts productivity by an average of about 23%, and industries with higher adoption rates have shown signs of accelerated productivity growth. Goldman Sachs' judgment is that AI is reshaping the economic structure, and the market may be underestimating the depth of AI's integration into the economic system. Goldman Sachs Research Report Analysis: Corporate AI adoption rate rose to 21.5%, data center construction jobs increased by 290,000.
BIS Economists Warn: AI Boom Increases Risk of Central Bank Monetary Policy Errors
According to Yonhap News, economists at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) warned in an analysis in their monthly bulletin that the AI boom is blurring economic signals, increasing the risk of central banks making serious policy errors. The analysis pointed out that AI's impact on investment, trade, and asset prices has reached an "observable" scale, sufficient to influence global economic prospects in real time, and continues to support economic growth amidst trade disputes and geopolitical shocks; U.S. spending on data centers and IT manufacturing facilities has risen to 0.8% of GDP, and the wealth effect from AI-driven stock price increases is also stimulating consumption. Meanwhile, if AI boosts productivity or triggers unemployment concerns, it may produce a disinflationary effect. BIS economists warned that short-term inflationary effects may already be emerging, while disinflationary effects will be more gradual; once central banks overestimate productivity gains or underestimate underlying demand growth, they will face the risk of keeping interest rates too low and inflation spiraling out of control.
Cathie Wood: Bitcoin's Performance Relative to Gold Is Stabilizing
Odaily News, ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood stated that while the recent U.S. employment report appears concerning on the surface, deeper economic trends are shifting. Productivity gains, the expanding application of AI, and potential deflationary pressures could become the main market themes moving forward.Wood noted that the U.S. federal deficit as a percentage of GDP is currently around 5.6%, approaching levels seen during the Reagan era in the 1980s. She believes that if productivity and technology adoption continue to accelerate as ARK anticipates, that ratio could fall to about 5% by year-end, although most economic forecasters view this target as difficult to achieve.On inflation, Wood believes the market is underestimating deflationary risks. She noted that recent inflation data has consistently come in below expectations, with the June CPI falling 0.4% month-over-month, PPI down 0.3% month-over-month, and core PCE rising just 0.1% month-over-month. She argues that companies that fail to adopt AI and productivity tools may face greater pricing pressure and competitive risks in the future.Wood is also bullish on the U.S. dollar. ARK's data model based on Kalshi prediction markets suggests the dollar index could rise to 102.6 this year. She pushed back against the view that "overseas capital is selling off U.S. assets," pointing out that Japan's recent currency market intervention primarily involved selling euros and buying yen, rather than selling dollars.In energy markets, Wood believes a global crude oil supply glut is taking shape. She noted that the UAE's production has risen to historic highs after leaving OPEC, and further downside in oil prices could act as a deflationary driver for the global economy.Regarding the AI investment boom, Wood said concerns about an AI bubble are overblown, and the current growth in capital expenditure likely represents the early stage of a long-term technological revolution rather than a short-term speculative cycle.In the crypto asset space, Wood said Bitcoin's performance relative to gold is stabilizing, and believes that as the "agentic commerce" economy develops, Bitcoin and stablecoins could become the biggest beneficiaries.
IMF Calls on Nepal to Establish Crypto Regulatory Framework, Citing Rapid Growth in Crypto and Stablecoin Inflows in Recent Years
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated in its latest annual assessment of Nepal that, despite Nepal’s comprehensive ban on cryptocurrency transactions and mining since 2021, inflows of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins grew rapidly between 2019 and 2024—peaking at over 13% of GDP in 2021 and rebounding to approximately 8% in 2024, with cross-border flows amounting to roughly 5% of GDP. The IMF recommends that Nepal establish a cryptocurrency regulatory framework aligned with international standards, strengthen monitoring of stablecoins and unbacked crypto assets to prevent circumvention of capital controls and large-scale deposit outflows, and urges Nepal to complete the FATF action plan and exit the “gray list.”
QCP: BTC Enters Range-Bound Trading, Funding Rate Remains Low, and Volatility Continues to Contract
According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.
QCP: BTC Monthly Gain Exceeds 14%; Geopolitical and Security Incidents Disrupt Market Sentiment
QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.
North Korea uses third-country IT workers to pass interviews at US companies, then takes over the positions after hiring
North Korea is using remote IT workers from third countries such as Iran and Lebanon to infiltrate US companies in order to obtain funding to support its weapons programs. After the relevant individuals pass interviews, their positions are usually taken over by North Korean personnel.The US government and multiple foreign agencies issued warnings in July stating that North Korean IT workers seek contracts and send salaries back to their affiliated North Korean organizations, while also posing insider threats to companies, involving data leaks, cryptocurrency theft, and the theft of sensitive information.Some third-country IT workers are recruited through LinkedIn, and some of them work part-time as "interview facilitators," earning $500 in cryptocurrency per month.Data from cybersecurity company CrowdStrike shows that in 2025, cryptocurrency losses caused by North Korea state-linked hackers and threat actors exceeded $2 billion, an increase of 51% year over year. South Korea's central bank estimates that North Korea's GDP grew 3.5% in 2025. (Cointelegraph)
QCP: BTC Monthly Gain Exceeds 14%; Geopolitical and Security Incidents Disrupt Market Sentiment
QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.
North Korea uses third-country IT workers to pass interviews at US companies, then takes over the positions after hiring
North Korea is using remote IT workers from third countries such as Iran and Lebanon to infiltrate US companies in order to obtain funding to support its weapons programs. After the relevant individuals pass interviews, their positions are usually taken over by North Korean personnel.The US government and multiple foreign agencies issued warnings in July stating that North Korean IT workers seek contracts and send salaries back to their affiliated North Korean organizations, while also posing insider threats to companies, involving data leaks, cryptocurrency theft, and the theft of sensitive information.Some third-country IT workers are recruited through LinkedIn, and some of them work part-time as "interview facilitators," earning $500 in cryptocurrency per month.Data from cybersecurity company CrowdStrike shows that in 2025, cryptocurrency losses caused by North Korea state-linked hackers and threat actors exceeded $2 billion, an increase of 51% year over year. South Korea's central bank estimates that North Korea's GDP grew 3.5% in 2025. (Cointelegraph)
September 7: Core Economic Data and Key Events to Watch Worldwide
On September 7, macroeconomic data from multiple countries, including China's August foreign exchange reserves, Germany's July industrial production, and the final Q2 GDP for the eurozone, will be released. Investors should closely monitor European and UK-related indicators released between 14:00 and 17:00 on that day.
Key Economic Data and Central Bank Decisions to Watch on September 2, 2026
Markets will closely monitor the release of several macroeconomic data points and interest rate decisions by major central banks today. These include Australia's Q2 GDP, rate decisions from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and the Bank of Canada, as well as key U.S. indicators such as employment data, factory orders, and EIA crude oil inventories.
U.S. Department of Commerce Leverages Chainlink to Bring Macroeconomic Data On-Chain
According to Cointelegraph, the U.S. Department of Commerce has officially adopted Chainlink to publish core macroeconomic data on-chain, covering key indicators such as real GDP, the PCE price index, and real final sales to private domestic purchasers, marking the first deep integration between traditional government data and blockchain infrastructure.
Goldman Sachs: AI Enterprise Adoption Rate Rises to 21.5%, Data Center Construction Jobs Increase by 290,000
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' July AI Adoption Tracker Report shows that the U.S. corporate AI adoption rate rose to 21.5%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, and is expected to reach 24.3% in six months. The Gallup survey shows that 47% of U.S. employees stated that their organizations have adopted AI, higher than 41% in the previous quarter. Semiconductor revenue is expected to reach $834 billion by the end of 2026; AI-related hardware investment has surpassed 2022 levels, reaching $463 billion, accounting for 1.4% of GDP. Data center-related construction jobs have increased by 290,000 since 2022, with an average monthly increase of about 14,000. Layoffs caused by AI cumulatively reached 102,000 in the first half of the year. Goldman Sachs believes that AI is moving from the proof-of-concept stage to the actual deployment stage, economic penetration is accelerating, but the labor impact remains concentrated in specific industries. Academic research shows that AI boosts productivity by an average of about 23%, and industries with higher adoption rates have shown signs of accelerated productivity growth. Goldman Sachs' judgment is that AI is reshaping the economic structure, and the market may be underestimating the depth of AI's integration into the economic system. Goldman Sachs Research Report Analysis: Corporate AI adoption rate rose to 21.5%, data center construction jobs increased by 290,000.
QCP: BTC Enters Range-Bound Trading, Funding Rate Remains Low, and Volatility Continues to Contract
According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.
Related news
North Korea uses third-country IT workers to pass interviews at US companies, then takes over the positions after hiring
North Korea is using remote IT workers from third countries such as Iran and Lebanon to infiltrate US companies in order to obtain funding to support its weapons programs. After the relevant individuals pass interviews, their positions are usually taken over by North Korean personnel.The US government and multiple foreign agencies issued warnings in July stating that North Korean IT workers seek contracts and send salaries back to their affiliated North Korean organizations, while also posing insider threats to companies, involving data leaks, cryptocurrency theft, and the theft of sensitive information.Some third-country IT workers are recruited through LinkedIn, and some of them work part-time as "interview facilitators," earning $500 in cryptocurrency per month.Data from cybersecurity company CrowdStrike shows that in 2025, cryptocurrency losses caused by North Korea state-linked hackers and threat actors exceeded $2 billion, an increase of 51% year over year. South Korea's central bank estimates that North Korea's GDP grew 3.5% in 2025. (Cointelegraph)
Today's Key Economic Data and Events: US CPI and UK GDP to be Released
Several high-impact macroeconomic data releases are scheduled for September 11, 2026, including the US August CPI, UK July GDP, and the IEA oil report, alongside geopolitical events such as domestic refined oil price adjustments and Putin's visit to India.
JPMorgan: Four Reasons for a Bullish Outlook on US Stocks, September Rate Hike Decision Hinges on CPI
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 6, 2026 research report highlights four reasons supporting a bullish stance on US equities despite heightened volatility in interest rates, exchange rates, and oil prices: strong growth (GDP and EPS forecasts continue to be raised), interest rates are not too high (rising yields reflect economic expansion rather than monetary tightening), the US favors a weak dollar policy, and hedge fund positioning remains neutral to light. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, far exceeding expectations; however, whether to hike rates in September hinges on the September 11 CPI data, with JPMorgan projecting core CPI to rise 0.21% month-over-month. The MSCI World Index has gained 12% year-to-date, while the 10-year US Treasury yield has climbed by only 60 basis points, and earnings growth is currently absorbing valuations.
Bank of America: The Debate Over the Fed's Rate-Hike Path, the Communication Paradox Between Warsh and Waller
According to Chaoxiang Research, a September 4, 2026 research report from BofA Securities notes that Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish speech at Jackson Hole and Governor Waller’s dovish remarks create a communication paradox. Drawing on the "Cohen Day or Bernanke Day" analogy, Warsh suggested the rate-hike path could pivot toward a more aggressive Cohen trajectory, offering further directional guidance to repair credibility damage from July, while Waller freely outlined a state-dependent policy rule. BofA believes that the clearer the explanation of the rule, the less necessity there is to steer the market; greater transparency equates to fewer commitments. BofA anticipates the ECB will conclude its tightening cycle after a 25-basis-point rate hike in September, pivoting to rate cuts in 2027. The UK’s 2026 growth forecast has been revised upward to 1.2%, though energy shocks sustain the risk of rate hikes at the November, December, and February meetings. US Treasuries have breached $40 trillion, with interest expenses now surpassing defense and healthcare spending; the debt feedback loop represents a gradually accumulating process. The Philippines’ fiscal deficit may expand to 6.1% of GDP in 2026, the Czech Republic could hike rates at most one more time, and Poland will hold rates steady. Divergence across the global macro landscape remains the overarching theme.
September 7: Core Economic Data and Key Events to Watch Worldwide
On September 7, macroeconomic data from multiple countries, including China's August foreign exchange reserves, Germany's July industrial production, and the final Q2 GDP for the eurozone, will be released. Investors should closely monitor European and UK-related indicators released between 14:00 and 17:00 on that day.
JPMorgan: Fed to Raise Rates by 25 Basis Points in December, AI Shortage Drives Next Investment Cycle
According to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan’s September 1, 2026 research report projects a 25-basis-point rate hike by the Federal Reserve in December, lifting the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%. U.S. GDP growth is forecast at 2.0% in 2026, with core PCE inflation holding steady at 3.5% and the unemployment rate remaining stable at 4.1%. The two-year Treasury yield may reach 4.30% by year-end, while the ten-year yield could rise to 4.85%, with the yield curve expected to continue steepening. The U.S. Dollar Index is at a critical juncture, and an anticipated rate hike could push it beyond its current range.