CryptoQuant Analyst: If the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on and impacts inflation, the Fed may have no choice but to raise interest rates

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted on X, stating that the current U.S. inflation structure has gradually become clearer. Although the March CPI recorded the largest month-on-month increase since 2022, core CPI remained largely unchanged, indicating that inflationary pressures have not yet broadly diffused. This trend warrants continued monitoring in upcoming PCE data and over the coming months. So long as this structure persists, it suggests inflation has not yet become systematically embedded in the U.S. economy—instead remaining a temporary phenomenon, potentially linked to geopolitical conflicts. However, if the U.S.-Iran conflict drags on, inflation could gradually evolve into a systemic risk and begin impacting economic growth, at which point the Federal Reserve may be forced to continue raising interest rates.