News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily reports: Bitfinex stated that despite repeated downward pressure, Bitcoin has continued to hold the lower end of its range, and BTC is expected to remain range-bound between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on October 28. If the price tests the upper boundary of the range, short-term traders taking profits could introduce some selling pressure.On the market data front, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $526.7 million on October 19, indicating somewhat stronger spot demand, but BTC price is still fluctuating narrowly between $81,724 and $83,470 and remains below the average cost basis of ETF investors at $84,333. Meanwhile, futures open interest on major exchanges has rebounded 4.2% from its October 12 low to 645,410 BTC, and funding rates are normalizing, suggesting leveraged long positions have recovered somewhat.In the options market, notional open interest for options expiring on October 23 stands at $1.23 billion, with the max pain point at approximately $82,000; monthly options expiring on October 30 total $11.2 billion, with a max pain point of $76,000. On-chain data shows that the $82,224 cost basis range added approximately 145,000 BTC, while the $80,353 cost basis range shed about 62,000 BTC, indicating some holdings are migrating toward higher cost basis ranges. The short-term holder SOPR is approximately 1.003, and the share of profitable supply is around 70%.
QCP's latest market analysis indicates that Bitcoin has maintained resilience within a narrow $80,000–$83,000 range throughout the past week, establishing firm support at the $80,000 level, which contrasts with tech stocks remaining under persistent pressure. From a macro perspective, despite robust inflation data, safe-haven demand has driven long-dated US Treasuries higher, while comments from Federal Reserve officials have tempered rate hike expectations. The subsequent pullback in Treasury yields has provided support for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Capital flows are showing signs of rotation from crowded artificial intelligence segments, such as semiconductors, into defensive sectors like healthcare and banking; however, there remains no clear evidence of large-scale direct inflows into cryptocurrency markets.
Well-known trader Killa stated that Bitcoin remains in a narrow range consolidation phase in the short term, with $65,300 being the current key threshold.
According to TechFlow Research, Goldman Sachs' research report on July 29 pointed out that the 5-year historical percentile of the total leverage ratio of global accounts remains at the 93rd percentile, the hedge fund long-short ratio has decreased from 5.7 times to 3.2 times, and deleveraging progress exceeds 90%. In July, net inflows into US stock funds were $34 billion, marking the third highest level for the same period in nearly 20 years. The S&P 500 fell below the short-term trigger level of 7,453 points; if it continues to decline, it will trigger concentrated CTA selling. Goldman Sachs estimates that systematic strategies hold approximately $196.3 billion in US stock long positions, with CTA positions at the 44th percentile. Goldman Sachs judges that US stocks are unlikely to have a trending market in August, with overall performance dominated by range-bound oscillation. Buybacks are the most certain buying support in August; currently, about 31% of S&P 500 constituents are in the buyback window, and it is expected that over 90% of companies will end the quiet period by mid-August. However, seasonal capital outflows, quantitative selling, and conservative institutional positions jointly suppress upward space. Goldman Sachs recommends reverse dispersion strategies and IWM put options as hedging tools.
According to QCP analysis, this week features a dense schedule of macroeconomic events, with market attention focused on three key themes: First, President Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing this week, with discussions expected to cover tariffs, the rare-earth supply chain, and the Middle East situation; markets are watching closely to see whether substantive progress can be achieved on trade. Second, April’s CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released sequentially; if inflation stabilizes, real yields may decline—historically providing support for the crypto market—whereas the opposite would reinforce expectations of monetary tightening. Third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings on the CLARITY Act; legislative progress could further catalyze institutional capital inflows. Currently, despite ETF outflows last week, BTC has held the $80,000 level, while crypto volatility remains near its lowest point of the year, with the VIX at approximately 18. In the short term, BTC is highly likely to remain range-bound, with $84,000 serving as a key resistance level.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin (BTC) edged up slightly on Friday, rising 1.25% to approximately $77,250 since 00:00 UTC, yet it remains range-bound between $75,000 and $80,000 since April 19. Futures funding rates are predominantly negative, indicating traders continue favoring short positions on rallies; Bitcoin futures open interest stands at roughly $19 billion—essentially flat week-on-week—with a 3-month annualized basis of 1.5%. In the options market, sentiment leans bullish: call options accounted for 58% of options volume over the past 24 hours, and demand for downside protection has eased.
According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.