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Analysis: Strategy's Move to Daily Dividends May Reduce Volatility and Enhance Bitcoin Financing Capacity

Odaily reports: According to Bitfinex analysis, Strategy shareholders voted on October 28 to approve a proposal for daily dividend payments on STRC preferred stock, with preliminary results showing 99.3% of votes in favor. STRC is expected to shift from semi-monthly dividend payments to daily dividend payments starting November 1, with the first cash dividend payment arriving on November 2; Strategy's other three preferred stocks, STRF, STRK, and STRD, are expected to follow suit in January 2027.Strategy's move aims to reduce price volatility around ex-dividend dates. Company CEO Phong Le stated that previously, when STRC paid dividends monthly, prices fell by an average of about 49 basis points around the ex-dividend date, which dropped to about 36 basis points after switching to semi-monthly payments. The company expects that daily dividend payments will further disperse selling pressure and improve price stability.This model was not pioneered by Strategy. Bitcoin treasury company Strive converted its SATA preferred stock to daily dividend payments in June of this year and launched a subordinated preferred stock, SATS, with a fixed annual dividend rate of 15%. In October, Strive issued 7 million shares of SATS at $90 per share, raising approximately $630 million, and used about $511 million of that to purchase 6,182 BTC.

Stolen BTC Short-Term Selling Pressure Nearly Zero, Benson Sun Says ETH More Likely to Form Selling Pressure

Odaily Report: According to monitoring by Benson Sun, Coinkarma founder Benson Sun posted that in Binance's recent theft incident, the exchange has confirmed the freezing of approximately $2.5 billion in assets, accounting for about half of the total stolen amount, with the remaining assets primarily consisting of Bitcoin and ETH. The stolen Bitcoin is worth approximately over $1 billion, but Bitcoin lacks deep mixing pools similar to Tornado Cash, and the relevant addresses will be flagged by trading platforms and on-chain analytics firms, making it far more difficult to liquidate than ETH. Reviewing cases such as the 2016 Bitfinex stolen Bitcoin that remained untouched for years, and the approximately 1,800 BTC stolen from Coldcard in July this year with 90% still unmoved as of early September, Benson Sun stated that this theft is larger in scale, and splitting addresses, mixing coins, and then discounting through OTC trading could take years, with short-term selling pressure nearly zero. If Binance uses SAFU to compensate and replenish Bitcoin, it could instead create buying pressure. In contrast, large amounts of ERC-20 tokens converted into ETH and then deposited into Tornado Cash are harder to trace, and the amount that could genuinely translate into market selling pressure may be in the range of over $1 billion. Benson Sun believes that market confidence will be impacted, but the direct selling pressure on Bitcoin is not as large as imagined, and called on the industry to seriously address security arrangements for hot wallet management, signature authorization, and quantum resistance in the post-AI era.

282 million USDT transferred from an unknown wallet to Bitfinex

Whale Alert detected two transfers of approximately 142 million and 140 million USDT, respectively, from unknown wallets to Bitfinex.

After adding to the position, 4,500 XAUT tokens show an unrealized loss of $606,000; the gold miner adds to the position again after three months

Odaily reports: According to monitoring by on-chain analyst Ai Yi, the gold miner (0x32f...eD48) has added to the position again after three months, withdrawing 300 XAUT, worth approximately $1.2 million, from Bitfinex 3 hours ago. After this addition, the cost basis of the 4,500 XAUT held has dropped to $4,141.54, with a current unrealized loss of $606,000. Since July 2026, this address has accumulated a total of $18.63 million worth of XAUT.

Analysis: Bitcoin May Remain Range-Bound Between $81,300 and $84,400 Ahead of Fed Decision

Odaily reports: Bitfinex stated that despite repeated downward pressure, Bitcoin has continued to hold the lower end of its range, and BTC is expected to remain range-bound between $81,300 and $84,400 ahead of the Federal Reserve's FOMC interest rate decision on October 28. If the price tests the upper boundary of the range, short-term traders taking profits could introduce some selling pressure.On the market data front, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $526.7 million on October 19, indicating somewhat stronger spot demand, but BTC price is still fluctuating narrowly between $81,724 and $83,470 and remains below the average cost basis of ETF investors at $84,333. Meanwhile, futures open interest on major exchanges has rebounded 4.2% from its October 12 low to 645,410 BTC, and funding rates are normalizing, suggesting leveraged long positions have recovered somewhat.In the options market, notional open interest for options expiring on October 23 stands at $1.23 billion, with the max pain point at approximately $82,000; monthly options expiring on October 30 total $11.2 billion, with a max pain point of $76,000. On-chain data shows that the $82,224 cost basis range added approximately 145,000 BTC, while the $80,353 cost basis range shed about 62,000 BTC, indicating some holdings are migrating toward higher cost basis ranges. The short-term holder SOPR is approximately 1.003, and the share of profitable supply is around 70%.

K33 Research: The US government transferred approximately 17,700 BTC, most likely a custodial operation rather than a sell-off.

According to K33 Research, the US government transferred approximately 17,733 BTC to Coinbase Prime this week, including 12,267 BTC linked to the Bitfinex hack incident. Following the transfer, the government’s tagged holdings decreased from 324,527 BTC to 306,795 BTC. If untagged suspected government wallets are included, the total BTC transferred to Coinbase Prime reaches approximately 21,500. Analysts believe this transfer is highly likely a custody operation rather than a liquidation—Coinbase Prime has served as the custodian for the US Marshals Service since 2024. Coins associated with the Bitfinex case remain in the claims process, with the Department of Justice requiring restitution to victims in BTC; the no-sale order for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve also only applies to fully confiscated assets. Additionally, roughly 1,200 BTC originating from FTX and HashFlare were transferred simultaneously and may be disbursed to victims in cash through compensation channels. Notably, the completion of the transfer of approximately 15,000 Bitfinex-claim-related BTC within two days suggests that a distribution plan or relevant rulings may be advancing.

Analysis: Bitcoin Awaits CPI Catalyst to Return to $84,500; Short-Term Focus on $81,300 Support

Bitfinex Alpha's latest report indicates whether Bitcoin can reclaim the $84,500 level this week will depend on whether US CPI data alters market expectations regarding interest rates and yields, and whether spot market buying follows through. This pullback is similar to previous adjustments during the earlier recovery phase, with no significant sell-off from holders whose cost basis lies within the original trading range. However, spot buying remains the current market's weakest link. The average cost basis for Bitcoin ETF investors is approximately $84,340, and since the current price is below this level, some investors may choose to sell when the rebound approaches their cost basis. Analysis suggests that if this week's core CPI month-on-month increase is 0.2% or lower, it could dampen rate hike expectations and push yields down, creating upside room for BTC; if core CPI reaches 0.3% or higher, it may continue to suppress risk assets. BTC may consolidate in the $81,300–$84,500 range in the short term. If the price breaks through and holds firmly above $84,500 alongside strong ETF fund flows, the market could retest the early-year opening level of $87,722; if it breaks below $81,300 accompanied by persistent capital outflows, it may further decline toward the true market mean level of approximately $77,400.

Bitcoin long-term holders barely deposited coins to exchanges during the drop from $87,000

Bitfinex analysis indicates Bitcoin is typically moved to exchanges before being sold, but during Bitcoin's decline from $87,000, coins held for 6 months or longer were hardly transferred to exchanges. Data shows that nearly all Bitcoin recently flowing into exchanges consisted of tokens that had been moved within the past week. Bitfinex notes that true market capitulation usually requires long-term holders to begin moving and selling their holdings, and this signal has not yet appeared.

Glassnode: Approximately 6.26 million BTC are held in addresses with revealed public keys, accounting for 31.2% of the supply.

According to Rafael (@n3ocortex), co-founder of the on-chain analytics platform Glassnode, public keys for approximately 6.26M BTC (31.2% of total supply) are now publicly visible on-chain, marking a further rise from 24.8% in early 2021 and returning to 2016 levels. Specifically, address reuse has led to the exposure of public keys for 4.33M BTC, with an additional 1.71M BTC exposed due to P2PK script types (including 1.10M BTC attributed to Satoshi Nakamoto), and 222K BTC exposed via Taproot addresses. At the institutional level, exchanges collectively hold 1.79M BTC with visible public keys, with exposure rates varying significantly across platforms: 10% for Coinbase, 83% for Binance, and 100% for Bitfinex; 49% for Grayscale, 99% for Revolut, and 100% for Robinhood. Fidelity accounts for just 2%, while the exposure rate for holdings by the US, UK, and Salvadoran governments remains at 0%.

Galaxy Research: Some BTC Transferred by US Government to Coinbase Prime Came from Unlabeled Addresses, LuBian and Bitfinex Assets Account for 71% of Holdings

Odaily News: Galaxy Research on-chain tracking shows that the US government transferred approximately 9,261 BTC, worth about $770 million, to Coinbase Prime over two days. Since the deposit address was first activated in December 2025, it has cumulatively received 11,567 BTC, of which 6,406 came from wallets already labeled as belonging to the US government, and 5,160 came from previously unlabeled wallets.Of the 9,261 BTC transferred this time, nearly half can be traced back to Bitfinex hacker funds recovered by the US government, with some coming from previously known Binance-related seized assets; among them, 2,456 BTC previously had no clear government attribution label, but because they entered this address through the same path as government funds, they are currently regarded as US government seized assets. The US government currently holds approximately 319,100 BTC, of which about 71% comes from LuBian-related BTC and Bitfinex recovered funds.In January 2025, a US federal court approved the return in kind of seized Bitfinex hacker funds to Bitfinex, and the main address holding approximately 94,600 BTC has still not moved. In October 2025, the US Department of Justice filed a civil forfeiture lawsuit against Chen Zhi and related assets, involving approximately 127,300 BTC; this batch of LuBian BTC entered addresses attributed to the US government between June and July 2024. Since 2013, US government-related addresses have received a total of approximately 555,300 BTC, worth about $16.1 billion at prices at the time; during the same period, approximately 236,200 BTC flowed out, worth about $3.8 billion at prices at the time. After excluding internal transfers between the government's own addresses, this transfer, based on labeled government addresses, ranks 9th among the largest single-day BTC outflows in US government history, and is also the largest since December 2, 2024. BTC being transferred to Coinbase Prime does not mean the US government has already sold it, and on-chain transfers alone cannot confirm the specific purpose of the funds.

After 9 years of holding, an OG whale has fully exited: pinosaur.eth transferred 9,618 ETH worth $24.58 million, netting a profit of $24.21 million

Odaily News — According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, OG whale pinosaur.eth (0x0F8...605A) transferred 9,618 ETH (worth $24.58 million) that had been held for 9 years to Kraken and fully exited 6 hours ago, netting a profit of $24.21 million, a 65x return. The ETH can be traced back to 7,459 ETH withdrawn from Bitfinex in April 2017, when ETH was priced at $50.

$470 Million in Seized Crypto Assets Moved, US Government-Linked Wallets Involve 4,695 BTC, WBTC, and USDT

Odaily News: According to Bitcoin News monitoring, Arkham reports that US government-linked wallets transferred approximately 4,695 BTC, along with WBTC and USDT, through a series of transactions today, involving total assets worth approximately $470 million. On-chain analyst @TimechainIndex independently flagged the same batch of approximately 4,695 BTC, distributed across 4 transactions. The assets are related to seizures tied to the Bitfinex hack and FTX/Alameda, with some assets already sent to Coinbase Prime deposit addresses. This transfer follows the US government's additional transfer to Coinbase Prime yesterday.

Ansem's Question Answered? Only 5 Tokens Meet the Criteria of "Ranked in the Top 100 by Market Cap in 2021 and Hit New All-Time Highs in 2025"

Renowned trader Ansem posted a question to the community: "Aside from USD and BTC, how many tokens can you name that have still hit all-time highs after surviving a full bull-bear cycle?" Crypto KOL @0xaporia compiled findings showing that, excluding BTC, only 8 tokens meet the criteria of "ranked in the top 100 by market cap in 2021 and hit new all-time highs in 2025." Excluding wrapped assets, these include only BNB, XRP, TRX, LEO, and OKB.

Realized a profit of $72.83 million, an ETH whale that held for 3 years takes profit on 30,825 ETH

Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, a whale/institution that had held ETH for 3 years continued to take profit on 30,825 ETH (approximately $83.03 million) 9 hours ago. Over the past week, this address has transferred a cumulative total of 112,053 ETH to Bitfinex, worth approximately $300 million, with an average transfer price of $2,676, realizing a profit of approximately $72.83 million.

Analysis: Recent BTC Holder Realized Profits Far Below Historical Peak Daily Average of $7–10 Billion

Odaily reports: Bitcoin has risen 44% this quarter to nearly $85,000, with some holders beginning to take profits. Bitfinex data shows that recent BTC holders have realized cumulative profits of approximately $2.4 billion, while during historical market tops, single-day realized profits typically reached $7–10 billion. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of $2.84 billion over the past 6 trading days, exceeding holder realized profits during the same period, with cumulative net inflows approaching $800 million year-to-date. Bitfinex also noted that approximately 410,000 ETH flowed out of exchanges over the past month, and U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted a cumulative $680 million over 4 consecutive trading days, indicating that strong capital support remains in the recent market. (CoinDesk)

After holding ETH for 3 years, a whale/institution took profit, selling 81,200 ETH over two days for a gain of $52.07 million

Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, after ETH rose today, a whale/institution transferred 48,048 ETH to Bitfinex about half an hour ago, worth $130 million. This entity accumulated 124,021 ETH three years ago at a price of $2,028, and over the past two days took profit on 81,228 ETH at a price of $2,669, for a cumulative gain of $52.07 million.

Long-term whale deposits 33,000 ETH on Bitfinex after over two years of inactivity, holding an unrealized profit of approximately $20.48 million.

According to on-chain analytics platform Lookonchain (@lookonchain), two wallet addresses suspected to belong to the same entity deposited 33,180 ETH into Bitfinex today after being dormant for over two years, valued at approximately $86.93 million, with an estimated profit of about $20.48 million.

Peak unrealized gain of $89.145 million still held, suspected whale transfers in $86.93 million worth of ETH

Odaily reports: According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, two addresses suspected to belong to the same whale entity withdrew 33,180.48 ETH from Bitfinex at an average price of $2,002.75 in November 2023, with peak unrealized gains reaching $89.145 million, and continued holding during that period. Five hours ago, both addresses deposited all ETH into an exchange at a deposit price of $2,620; if sold, the estimated profit would be $20.481 million.

An ETH whale holding tokens for three years recorded an unrealized profit of $66.45 million and partially took profits today.

According to on-chain analyst Ember (@EmberCN), a whale or institution withdrew 112,066 ETH (approximately $227 million) from Bitfinex three years ago at an average price of $2,030 and held them long-term. As ETH surpassed $2,600 today, the address transferred 21,229 ETH (approximately $55.93 million) back to Bitfinex two hours ago to partially take profit, accumulating an unrealized gain of $66.45 million over the three-year holding period, representing an increase of approximately 29%.

Bitfinex Analysis: BTC Breaks Below Key Support, ETFs See Single-Day Net Outflow of $450 Million

According to Bitfinex Alpha, Bitcoin broke below the key support level of $77,100 on September 15, closing at $75,702 with a daily decline of 3.2%, marking its third consecutive closing lower after breaking through the recent range bottom. On that day, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a net outflow of $450.4 million, with Fidelity FBTC seeing an outflow of $214.8 million and BlackRock IBIT recording an outflow of $161.7 million, accounting for 84% of total outflows. This marks the 14th-largest single-day net outflow in 2026. The downturn was driven by multiple factors: the failure of the CLARITY Act to advance, the 10-year US Treasury yield rising to 5% (for the first time since 2023), accelerated selling by short-term holders (exchange inflows surged sharply from 19,400 BTC to 33,100 BTC, of which 23,200 BTC were acquired at a loss), and foreign demand dropping to a historic low during the 20-year US Treasury auction. From a technical standpoint, BTC has fallen below the market average value of $76,500 and Strategy's average holding price of $75,412, leaving the average holder currently underwater. If the downtrend continues, key support levels below are $73,500 (cost basis for 3-6 month holders) and $71,300 (realized price for short-term holders). A rebound requires reclaiming $77,100 backed by significant spot trading volume.