News linked to both this project and an event.
10x Research posted on X platform, stating that data shows Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) dropped to a local low of 33% on July 15, and has now ended its consecutive decline, slightly recovering to 35%. This is a significant drop compared to the high of approximately 55% seen in February of this year. Although the recent rebound in implied volatility is limited, it has already caught the attention of options traders. This rebound in the indicator may suggest upcoming market turbulence, but it remains to be confirmed whether the market is bottoming out for a rebound or merely pausing temporarily before a further decline.
10x Research published an analysis noting that US employment data stronger than expected temporarily caused Bitcoin price volatility, and ETF fund outflows also exacerbated selling pressure. However, active buying from long-term holders helped form price support for the market. Meanwhile, weak employment data also led the market to delay its expectation for the next rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing certain support for Bitcoin's short-term trend. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has always been a month where Bitcoin performs relatively strongly, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market usually enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September might become the low point of this cycle. Bitcoin recently rebounded from $58,500 to $61,500, which may be providing new positioning opportunities for traders.
10x Research stated on X platform that Ethereum is currently at the $1,600 support level. If this support is lost, the next target is $1,200, a price level seen since the FTX collapse. Ethereum (ETH-USDT) is trading below the 7-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend; it is also below the 30-day moving average, with a weekly decline of 7.4%. Ethereum executed a major restructuring, laying off 20% of its staff, which triggered a significant price drop. Warnings of a funding crisis following the expiration of key developer incentive plans further dampened market sentiment.The spot Ethereum ETF continues to see net outflows alongside weak institutional demand, severely constraining upward market momentum. On-chain data shows asset accumulation at multi-year lows and a rising transaction failure rate, signaling cooling network demand. The news calendar is relatively light this week, with the dominant price factors remaining macro headwinds: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, a strengthening US dollar, and stock market volatility.
10x Research released a report stating that the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have continuously shifted over the past decade, indicating that holding altcoins long-term is not the optimal strategy—momentum trading is more critical. A bullish stance can be maintained if an altcoin trades above its 6-month or 12-month moving average; once it falls below, investors should decisively reduce positions. Using a dual-screening framework based on fundamental catalysts and risk management, the firm has currently identified six altcoins exhibiting strong bullish catalysts and meeting risk-management criteria. Historical data shows such a carefully selected portfolio is likely to significantly outperform Bitcoin.
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that the core driver behind Bitcoin's drop below $60,000 is not the market's feared Strategy sell-off, but sustained ETF outflows triggered by rising US inflation. Data shows that since US inflation data exceeded expectations in April, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net redemptions of approximately $5.4 billion. Over the same period, MicroStrategy actually increased its BTC holdings by around $2 billion, becoming one of the few net buyers.Markus Thielen noted: "The market has misjudged this decline. Strategy is not the issue; the real driver is institutional ETF selling." The market's current focus should shift to the CPI data to be released this Wednesday. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could reinforce the "higher for longer" interest rate expectation, continuing to pressure risk assets. His model predicts US inflation could rise to 4.3%, higher than the market consensus.10x Research emphasized that market liquidity remains weak: stablecoins saw a net outflow of approximately $5.5 billion last month, and futures open interest has declined, indicating that capital is withdrawing from the crypto market. ETF flows remain the core variable for Bitcoin's price. "Follow the flows, not the narrative." (CoinDesk)
10x Research (@10xResearch) published a post stating that the primary driver behind Bitcoin’s latest downturn is macroeconomic forces—not quantum computing threats or AI-driven sentiment fluctuations, both of which are mere noise. The market is digesting expectations that MicroStrategy is shifting from accumulation to selective selling; its most recent $2 million BTC sale was a probing move—part of a managed sell-down rather than a forced liquidation, a distinction critical in nature. MicroStrategy currently holds 843,706 BTC, corresponding to approximately $2.22 billion in debt and preferred stock obligations. Its equity value would hit zero at a BTC price of roughly $26,000—a threshold closely monitored by institutional risk managers. 10x Research notes that the market remains in the process of forming a bottom, though a new bull market will inevitably arrive. After each bull cycle ends, “evangelists” exit the stage in various ways; a new bull market requires fresh faces and new narratives to attract new buyers.
10x Research stated that while Ethereum’s current price appears cheap, “cheap” does not equate to a buying opportunity. It noted that the Ethereum options market has recently seen unusually large purchases of put options, with inflows into the $1,800 and $1,900 strike prices approximately five times higher than normal levels.
10x Research stated its Bitcoin trend model has turned bearish.It noted that the market narrative of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) "never selling Bitcoin" has begun to waver. 10x Research said that Michael Saylor recently hinted the company might sell some of its holdings of 843,000 BTC in the future, and this shift has led to cumulative outflows of approximately $2.7 billion from related Bitcoin ETFs.
crypto research firm 10x Research stated that since the release of US CPI data on May 13th, Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net outflows exceeding $1 billion, reigniting "inflation trade" sentiment in the market. Market sentiment indicators have dropped from 87% to 45%. Meanwhile, long-term US Treasury yields continue to climb, with the 30-year yield rising to 5.12%. As inflation returns to the forefront of market focus, the crypto market is facing significant headwinds.Furthermore, 10x Research noted that its models have triggered bearish signals for Ethereum, and Bitcoin is currently testing the key support level of its 30-day moving average. A confirmed breakdown below this level could signal further momentum deterioration. The firm is closely watching the short-term bull/bear line at $79,125 and the major support level at $76,922, suggesting that the bottom for this cycle may have already formed.
According to 10x Research analysis, Bitcoin’s total gamma exposure has remained negative since mid-January and currently stands at -$3.2 billion at the $82,000 strike price. In a negative gamma environment, market makers are forced to trade in the direction of price movement—buying aggressively on rallies and selling aggressively on declines—thereby amplifying price volatility. As options expire en masse on May 29 and June 26, the negative gamma drag is expected to gradually dissipate, easing Bitcoin’s downward bias. Currently, demand for call options has clearly outstripped that for put options, and institutions anticipate market sentiment will shift from bearish to bullish around those expiration dates.
10x Research 发文表示，尽管比特币交易量仍较低、资金费率维持负值，但市场已有部分早期交易者提前布局并获得约 10%收益。其认为，许多交易员仍在等待宏观催化剂或认为熊市尚未结束，但这误解了比特币市场运行方式，“熊市结束往往不是由单一新闻触发，而是由指标改善、风险回报变化以及多数参与者仍未入场时形成”。10x Research 表示，其在一个月前已转为看涨，目前市场情绪虽有所改善，但仓位跟进仍然不足。其同时提醒，当前市场仍存在风险，合理对冲与仓位管理依然重要。