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10x Research: Bitmine’s cumulative losses amount to approximately $10 billion, yet its current valuation may not fully reflect its embedded option value.
10x Research stated that Bitmine raised a total of $1.92 billion through 50 equity issuances between July 2025 and June 2026, allocating nearly all proceeds toward purchasing 5,543,872 ETH—approximately 4.6% of the circulating supply. At $1,650 per ETH, its current reserve value stands at roughly $9.1 billion, resulting in an unrealized loss of approximately $10.1 billion for investors, representing a 52% drawdown from invested capital.
10x Research: The NAV premiums of most Bitcoin treasury companies have significantly contracted and may soon enter a negative-premium era.
10x Research posted an analysis on X, pointing out that as Bitcoin’s volatility continues to decline, the NAV premiums of most Bitcoin treasury companies have significantly contracted—some even turning into substantial discounts—resulting in visible losses for related investors. Historically, Grayscale’s GBTC briefly traded at a 47% discount in December 2022; at that time, investors could effectively buy Bitcoin through the product at an implied price below $10,000. The market had mistakenly viewed traditional finance–packaged crypto asset products as “Bitcoin leveraged tools.” In reality, these structures resemble options more closely: their implied value expands when volatility rises and contracts when volatility falls.
Analysis: Bitcoin Implied Volatility Ends Losing Streak, Potentially Signaling Market Turbulence Ahead
10x Research posted on X platform, stating that data shows Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) dropped to a local low of 33% on July 15, and has now ended its consecutive decline, slightly recovering to 35%. This is a significant drop compared to the high of approximately 55% seen in February of this year. Although the recent rebound in implied volatility is limited, it has already caught the attention of options traders. This rebound in the indicator may suggest upcoming market turbulence, but it remains to be confirmed whether the market is bottoming out for a rebound or merely pausing temporarily before a further decline.
10x Research: Active Buying from Long-Term Holders Helps BTC Form Short-Term Support, But Caution Still Needed on Cycle Lows
10x Research published an analysis noting that US employment data stronger than expected temporarily caused Bitcoin price volatility, and ETF fund outflows also exacerbated selling pressure. However, active buying from long-term holders helped form price support for the market. Meanwhile, weak employment data also led the market to delay its expectation for the next rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing certain support for Bitcoin's short-term trend. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has always been a month where Bitcoin performs relatively strongly, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market usually enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September might become the low point of this cycle. Bitcoin recently rebounded from $58,500 to $61,500, which may be providing new positioning opportunities for traders.
10x Research: If Ethereum’s $1,600 Support Breaks, It May Drop to $1,200
10x Research stated on X platform that Ethereum is currently at the $1,600 support level. If this support is lost, the next target is $1,200, a price level seen since the FTX collapse. Ethereum (ETH-USDT) is trading below the 7-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend; it is also below the 30-day moving average, with a weekly decline of 7.4%. Ethereum executed a major restructuring, laying off 20% of its staff, which triggered a significant price drop. Warnings of a funding crisis following the expiration of key developer incentive plans further dampened market sentiment.The spot Ethereum ETF continues to see net outflows alongside weak institutional demand, severely constraining upward market momentum. On-chain data shows asset accumulation at multi-year lows and a rising transaction failure rate, signaling cooling network demand. The news calendar is relatively light this week, with the dominant price factors remaining macro headwinds: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, a strengthening US dollar, and stock market volatility.
10x Research: 6 High-Momentum Altcoins with Clear Catalysts Poised to Outperform Bitcoin
10x Research released a report stating that the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have continuously shifted over the past decade, indicating that holding altcoins long-term is not the optimal strategy—momentum trading is more critical. A bullish stance can be maintained if an altcoin trades above its 6-month or 12-month moving average; once it falls below, investors should decisively reduce positions. Using a dual-screening framework based on fundamental catalysts and risk management, the firm has currently identified six altcoins exhibiting strong bullish catalysts and meeting risk-management criteria. Historical data shows such a carefully selected portfolio is likely to significantly outperform Bitcoin.
10x Research: Bitcoin's Decline is Not Driven by Strategy, but by Inflation and ETF Outflows
Odaily Planet Daily reported that Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, stated that the core driver behind Bitcoin's drop below $60,000 is not the market's feared Strategy sell-off, but sustained ETF outflows triggered by rising US inflation. Data shows that since US inflation data exceeded expectations in April, US spot Bitcoin ETFs have accumulated net redemptions of approximately $5.4 billion. Over the same period, MicroStrategy actually increased its BTC holdings by around $2 billion, becoming one of the few net buyers.Markus Thielen noted: "The market has misjudged this decline. Strategy is not the issue; the real driver is institutional ETF selling." The market's current focus should shift to the CPI data to be released this Wednesday. If inflation comes in higher than expected, it could reinforce the "higher for longer" interest rate expectation, continuing to pressure risk assets. His model predicts US inflation could rise to 4.3%, higher than the market consensus.10x Research emphasized that market liquidity remains weak: stablecoins saw a net outflow of approximately $5.5 billion last month, and futures open interest has declined, indicating that capital is withdrawing from the crypto market. ETF flows remain the core variable for Bitcoin's price. "Follow the flows, not the narrative." (CoinDesk)
10x Research: Bitcoin is still in the bottom-formation phase, and a new bull market will inevitably arrive.
10x Research (@10xResearch) published a post stating that the primary driver behind Bitcoin’s latest downturn is macroeconomic forces—not quantum computing threats or AI-driven sentiment fluctuations, both of which are mere noise. The market is digesting expectations that MicroStrategy is shifting from accumulation to selective selling; its most recent $2 million BTC sale was a probing move—part of a managed sell-down rather than a forced liquidation, a distinction critical in nature. MicroStrategy currently holds 843,706 BTC, corresponding to approximately $2.22 billion in debt and preferred stock obligations. Its equity value would hit zero at a BTC price of roughly $26,000—a threshold closely monitored by institutional risk managers. 10x Research notes that the market remains in the process of forming a bottom, though a new bull market will inevitably arrive. After each bull cycle ends, “evangelists” exit the stage in various ways; a new bull market requires fresh faces and new narratives to attract new buyers.
10x Research: Bitcoin's True Investment Thesis May Lie in Space Infrastructure and Decentralized Computing
10x Research released a report stating that the market generally believes Bitcoin's core value lies in hedging against currency debasement, but this is not its true investment thesis. The report argues that the core constraint facing decentralized currency is not monetary policy, but physical conditions, including energy, heat dissipation, and geographical jurisdictional limitations.The report points out that with the development of space infrastructure, the constraints of heat, electricity, and geographical limitations faced by data centers could be alleviated in orbital environments. The connection between SpaceX, Starlink, and Bitcoin may represent a long-term strategic layout centered around future infrastructure construction.10x Research believes that technologies such as satellites, encryption technology, and artificial intelligence can both promote the decentralization of power and potentially reinforce resource concentration. The world is competing around two sets of infrastructure systems.The report also compares Bitcoin with China's digital yuan, suggesting they represent different paths for digital infrastructure. It also notes that as populations gradually move away from traditional network systems, the business models of companies like Palantir may also be affected.
10x Research: The window for Bitcoin's bear market low in this cycle is approaching
Odaily Planet Daily reports that 10x Research has released its latest market report, stating that Bitcoin traders have long misread the "global money supply" and "global liquidity" indicators, while the movement of the US dollar is actually one of the key factors affecting Bitcoin's price.10x Research points out that the US dollar is currently strengthening across multiple dimensions, and historical experience shows that a stronger dollar is generally negative for Bitcoin. Its dollar model has only triggered 6 sell signals since 2011, with the last occurrence in November 2025, followed by months of continuous decline in Bitcoin's price.The report also indicates that the widely circulated global liquidity indicator in the crypto community last year was incorrectly used by the market. According to its research framework, this indicator triggered a buy signal in early March this year and an exit signal in late April, and the team has already calculated the potential time window for the next trigger.10x Research states that the report analyzes the potential time range and value range for the bear market low in this cycle, incorporating the dollar's movement, global liquidity, and other macro drivers, and believes that the time window corresponding to the cyclical low for Bitcoin is gradually approaching.
10x Research: 6 High-Momentum Altcoins with Clear Catalysts Poised to Outperform Bitcoin
10x Research released a report stating that the top ten cryptocurrencies by market capitalization have continuously shifted over the past decade, indicating that holding altcoins long-term is not the optimal strategy—momentum trading is more critical. A bullish stance can be maintained if an altcoin trades above its 6-month or 12-month moving average; once it falls below, investors should decisively reduce positions. Using a dual-screening framework based on fundamental catalysts and risk management, the firm has currently identified six altcoins exhibiting strong bullish catalysts and meeting risk-management criteria. Historical data shows such a carefully selected portfolio is likely to significantly outperform Bitcoin.
Analysis: Bitcoin mining companies' transition to AI infrastructure is accelerating, with multiple infrastructure-linked stocks surging
Odaily Planet Daily reported that 10x Research posted on X platform, stating that amid Bitcoin's downturn, the mining and AI infrastructure sectors have surged significantly. KEEL rose 30%, CIFR rose 29%, IREN rose 29%, WULF rose 24%, and HUT rose 22%, primarily driven by large-scale hyperscale data center deals, campus acquisitions, and new institutional support.This week's catalysts include IREN's $1.6 billion purchase of Dell Blackwell systems, TeraWulf's acquisition of a 1 GW Kentucky campus, and Hut 8's signing of a $9.8 billion Texas lease agreement. These events indicate that the transition of Bitcoin mining companies towards AI infrastructure is accelerating.
Related news
Analysis: Bitcoin Implied Volatility Ends Losing Streak, Potentially Signaling Market Turbulence Ahead
10x Research posted on X platform, stating that data shows Bitcoin's implied volatility (IV) dropped to a local low of 33% on July 15, and has now ended its consecutive decline, slightly recovering to 35%. This is a significant drop compared to the high of approximately 55% seen in February of this year. Although the recent rebound in implied volatility is limited, it has already caught the attention of options traders. This rebound in the indicator may suggest upcoming market turbulence, but it remains to be confirmed whether the market is bottoming out for a rebound or merely pausing temporarily before a further decline.
10x Research: Bitcoin's True Investment Thesis May Lie in Space Infrastructure and Decentralized Computing
10x Research released a report stating that the market generally believes Bitcoin's core value lies in hedging against currency debasement, but this is not its true investment thesis. The report argues that the core constraint facing decentralized currency is not monetary policy, but physical conditions, including energy, heat dissipation, and geographical jurisdictional limitations.The report points out that with the development of space infrastructure, the constraints of heat, electricity, and geographical limitations faced by data centers could be alleviated in orbital environments. The connection between SpaceX, Starlink, and Bitcoin may represent a long-term strategic layout centered around future infrastructure construction.10x Research believes that technologies such as satellites, encryption technology, and artificial intelligence can both promote the decentralization of power and potentially reinforce resource concentration. The world is competing around two sets of infrastructure systems.The report also compares Bitcoin with China's digital yuan, suggesting they represent different paths for digital infrastructure. It also notes that as populations gradually move away from traditional network systems, the business models of companies like Palantir may also be affected.
10x Research: Bitcoin options trading volume has dropped from $8 billion to $3.5 billion
10x Research stated that since the high in October last year, Bitcoin options trading volume has decreased from $8 billion to $3.5 billion, while market volatility has also declined during the same period. It believes that signals from the options market may indicate that trading activity could further decline.
10x Research: Active Buying from Long-Term Holders Helps BTC Form Short-Term Support, But Caution Still Needed on Cycle Lows
10x Research published an analysis noting that US employment data stronger than expected temporarily caused Bitcoin price volatility, and ETF fund outflows also exacerbated selling pressure. However, active buying from long-term holders helped form price support for the market. Meanwhile, weak employment data also led the market to delay its expectation for the next rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing certain support for Bitcoin's short-term trend. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has always been a month where Bitcoin performs relatively strongly, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market usually enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September might become the low point of this cycle. Bitcoin recently rebounded from $58,500 to $61,500, which may be providing new positioning opportunities for traders.
10x Research: If Ethereum’s $1,600 Support Breaks, It May Drop to $1,200
10x Research stated on X platform that Ethereum is currently at the $1,600 support level. If this support is lost, the next target is $1,200, a price level seen since the FTX collapse. Ethereum (ETH-USDT) is trading below the 7-day moving average, indicating a bearish trend; it is also below the 30-day moving average, with a weekly decline of 7.4%. Ethereum executed a major restructuring, laying off 20% of its staff, which triggered a significant price drop. Warnings of a funding crisis following the expiration of key developer incentive plans further dampened market sentiment.The spot Ethereum ETF continues to see net outflows alongside weak institutional demand, severely constraining upward market momentum. On-chain data shows asset accumulation at multi-year lows and a rising transaction failure rate, signaling cooling network demand. The news calendar is relatively light this week, with the dominant price factors remaining macro headwinds: the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, a strengthening US dollar, and stock market volatility.
10x Research: The window for Bitcoin's bear market low in this cycle is approaching
Odaily Planet Daily reports that 10x Research has released its latest market report, stating that Bitcoin traders have long misread the "global money supply" and "global liquidity" indicators, while the movement of the US dollar is actually one of the key factors affecting Bitcoin's price.10x Research points out that the US dollar is currently strengthening across multiple dimensions, and historical experience shows that a stronger dollar is generally negative for Bitcoin. Its dollar model has only triggered 6 sell signals since 2011, with the last occurrence in November 2025, followed by months of continuous decline in Bitcoin's price.The report also indicates that the widely circulated global liquidity indicator in the crypto community last year was incorrectly used by the market. According to its research framework, this indicator triggered a buy signal in early March this year and an exit signal in late April, and the team has already calculated the potential time window for the next trigger.10x Research states that the report analyzes the potential time range and value range for the bear market low in this cycle, incorporating the dollar's movement, global liquidity, and other macro drivers, and believes that the time window corresponding to the cyclical low for Bitcoin is gradually approaching.