Wintermute Weekly: BTC Digests 23% Rally, ETFs See First Outflow After Nine Consecutive Days of Net Inflows

According to the weekly market report by Wintermute OTC trader @Jjay_dm, Fed Chair Warsh delivered a hawkish speech at Jackson Hole, reiterating the 2% inflation target and pushing the probability of a September rate hike to 61.9%, making the September 15-16 FOMC meeting a key catalyst for risk assets. In cross-asset performance, 20+ year US Treasuries led gains (+1.01%), followed by altcoins (+0.61%), the S&P 500 (+0.47%), and the Nasdaq (+0.42%). BTC closed flat (+0.10%), while ETH (-0.86%), the Russell 2000 (-1.40%), gold (-3.42%), and Brent crude oil (-4.31%) were the weakest performers. In the crypto market, BTC digesting its previous 23% rally, encountered repeated rejections at the $82k resistance level. It reached an intraday high of $81k earlier this week, dipped below $78k following Warsh's remarks, and ultimately closed flat. BTC ETFs posted nine consecutive days of net inflows totaling $924 million, with a first-time single-day outflow of $202 million on Friday. ETH ETFs logged net inflows of $816 million this week, with no single-day outflows. SOL and XRP ETFs both set new 2026 weekly inflow records, reaching $154 million and $110 million, respectively. Strategy increased its position again on Monday, raising $2 billion, with approximately $16