Bitwise CIO Revises Clarity Act Outlook: Crypto Bull Run May Not Require Legislative Support

According to The Block, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has revised his previous assessment regarding the impact of the Clarity Act's failure. The bill secured only 49 votes in a procedural Senate vote, falling short of the 60-vote threshold needed to advance. While Hougan had previously forecasted that a failed bill would trigger several weeks of crypto market weakness, he noted in his latest client report that Bitcoin has continued to rise after bottoming out around $57,950 on July 1, surpassing $80,000 on September 4. In the same period, Polymarket’s implied probability for the bill’s passage within the year dropped from 39% to 14%. Price action moving contrary to these expectations suggests that the bull market does not rely on legislative passage. Hougan also pointed out that initiatives such as Robinhood launching its own blockchain, Morgan Stanley listing a Solana ETF, and DTCC completing the settlement of the first batch of tokenized stocks demonstrate that Wall Street institutions are already positioning themselves ahead of regulatory clarity. He noted that proactive rulemaking by the SEC and CFTC can partially fill legislative gaps, but acknowledged that executive regulations carry the risk of being overturned by future administrations. Consequently, congressional legislation remains the sole path to providing lasting regulatory certainty.