Nomura: Warsh’s Hawkish Debut Emphasizes Inflation; August Data May Keep Fed On Hold

According to ChaXiang Research, a Nomura Securities note dated August 28, 2026, indicated that Fed Chair Warsh emphasized the importance of the inflation target during his hawkish debut at Jackson Hole, hinting that policy may need to respond if inflation does not fall at a sufficient pace. However, he did not explicitly signal an imminent rate hike. The 2-year U.S. Treasury yield spiked 7 basis points following the remarks, as markets raised the probability of a September rate hike from 30% to over 50%. Nomura expects August core PCE to rise approximately 0.2% month-over-month, which would be sufficient to justify the Fed keeping rates unchanged, though its sensitivity to incoming data has increased significantly. Warsh downplayed the significance of recent benign inflation readings, stating he does not foresee any improvement in the trend. He unexpectedly minimized the cooling of wage growth, noting that wages have long failed to serve as an effective indicator of underlying inflation trends. On the economic front, Warsh struck an optimistic tone, describing consumption as "healthy," capital expenditure as "growing rapidly," and the labor market as "consistent with full employment." Nomura forecasts a 60,000 increase in August non-farm payrolls, with the unemployment rate dropping to 4.0%, and has revised up its third-quarter GDP nowcast to 3.6%. Nomura maintains its baseline assumption that the Fed will hold rates steady, but Warsh's hawkish tone implies that if the disinflationary process stalls, a rate hike could be placed back on the agenda.