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Macro Shocks Impact Crypto Market, Huobi HTX to Live Stream Analysis of BTC Future Trends
According to the official announcement, Huobi HTX will host a themed live stream today at 20:00 titled "Ceasefire Ends, Oil Price Surges Past 75, STRATEGY Sells Coins at Loss for First Time: Can BTC's Macro Narrative Still Hold?" During the event, crypto KOLs such as HuaBai Blockchain, Sincere Little Taoist, Crypto.0824, and OxPink will gather in the live stream room to conduct in-depth discussions on recent market hotspots such as the fluctuating situation in the Middle East and the strong upward trend in international oil prices, and combine Federal Reserve policy expectations to analyze BTC's future trend as well as crypto asset allocation opportunities and risk management strategies, providing investors with multi-dimensional market observations and trading ideas.
Paul Tudor Jones: Bitcoin is the Undisputed Best Inflation Hedge
Odaily Macro investor and hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones stated in a recent podcast interview that Bitcoin is the "unequivocally the best inflation hedge" and called it a "knockout opportunity" in the market.Paul Tudor Jones pointed out that truly major trading opportunities often arise when market structures are imbalanced, assets are underallocated, or when policymakers misjudge the situation. He believes that due to its scarcity and decentralized characteristics, Bitcoin outperforms gold in inflation trades. He emphasized that Bitcoin's total supply is capped at 21 million coins, with less than 1 million remaining to be mined, while gold's supply continues to increase annually. Therefore, Bitcoin holds a stronger advantage in the dimension of scarcity.Paul Tudor Jones recalled that in 2020, against the backdrop of Federal Reserve and fiscal expansion, Bitcoin became one of the most outstanding inflation-hedging assets at the time, and he subsequently increased its allocation to around 5% of his investment portfolio. However, he also warned of risks: in the event of large-scale "momentum conflicts" or cyber warfare-level incidents, the electronic asset system could face systemic disruption risks, and Bitcoin may also be impacted. Additionally, future cryptographic risks driven by quantum computing and AI could become a source of long-term uncertainty. (The Block)
Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.
Analyst: Bitcoin’s downside risk is greater, selling call options offers better value now
: According to Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 level. Currently, GEX is concentrated around the $60,000 mark. As prices repeatedly fluctuate around this key level, both call and put positions have accumulated at this point.However, put positions are currently distributed in the $55,000 to $60,000 range, with a vacuum zone below $55,000. If breached, there is significant room for a decline. Meanwhile, the area above $60,000 is where prices have repeatedly traded in recent months, with more evenly distributed positions. Overall, the downside risk is greater. Macro uncertainty, coupled with capital outflows from the United States, makes it difficult to support the cryptocurrency market. Currently, selling call options offers better value.
Analyst: Bitcoin May Enter Bottom Zone, 200-Week MA Becomes Key Macro Divergence Level
Analyst Ai pointed out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been regarded as a core indicator for judging "cycle bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:August 2015: Touched the 200-week MA and then started a bull run, with cumulative gains exceeding 8,500%December 2018: Bounced approximately 267% after testing this moving averageMarch 2020: Confirmed support after bottoming out due to the pandemic liquidity shock, followed by a rise of 1,125%June 2022: Fell below for the first time and remained below the moving average for a long period until reclaiming it in December, which triggered a rally of approximately 680%In the current market, the 200-week MA is located around $63,500, while Bitcoin's current price is trading below $60,000. Analysts believe this has already entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.At the same time, analysts also caution that potential downside risks remain. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme cases, testing the $40,000 range cannot be ruled out. However, overall, adopting a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for gradual position building is more suitable.Regarding key observation points, the $63,500 level is seen as the "bull-bear dividing line." If Bitcoin can firmly reclaim and confirm the 200-week MA as macro support on a higher time frame, historical patterns suggest it could signal that the early stages of a new bull cycle have already begun.
Greeks.live Macro Researcher: The decline has not caused market concern; the current market does not support chasing short positions
, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X stating that through Options Terminal analysis of the weekend market, it was found that large funds mainly engaged in three types of operations:Selling near-term gamma and near-month volatility;Buying downside protection for medium-to-long-term tenors, or constructing defensive structures such as put fly and collar;Conducting pin and roll operations around the $79,000 to $80,000 range.He stated that the current market does not support chasing short positions, and the decline has not caused market concern, with whales expecting short-term consolidation.
Cathie Wood: AI New Technologies Kick Off Productivity Cycle; Inflation Rebound Narrative Weakened by Macro Data
Odaily, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood released her latest market views on X, stating that a series of current macroeconomic data continues to dispel market concerns about a renewed rise in inflation. The US economy is entering a new upward cycle driven by technological productivity and will not repeat the stagflationary scenario of the 1970s. On the data front, US productivity growth is at 3%, unit labor costs at 0.5%, and Truflation's core CPI is near 1.3%. Multiple indicators confirm that inflationary pressures remain low. Even with strong employment data, short-term market pullbacks only reflect investor sensitivity to interest rates and macro risks. The current market is in a classic "climbing the wall of worry" phase, similar to the 1980s and 1990s, where innovation dividends support long-term asset appreciation.Cathie Wood points out that core technologies such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and multi-omics are still in their early stages of development. The productivity-enhancing effects have yet to be fully reflected in economic statistics. This is the early phase of a tech-driven expansion cycle, and technological innovation will dominate medium- to long-term economic growth.
Greeks.live Macro Researcher: The decline has not caused market concern; the current market does not support chasing short positions
, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X stating that through Options Terminal analysis of the weekend market, it was found that large funds mainly engaged in three types of operations:Selling near-term gamma and near-month volatility;Buying downside protection for medium-to-long-term tenors, or constructing defensive structures such as put fly and collar;Conducting pin and roll operations around the $79,000 to $80,000 range.He stated that the current market does not support chasing short positions, and the decline has not caused market concern, with whales expecting short-term consolidation.
Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.
Related news
Macro Shocks Impact Crypto Market, Huobi HTX to Live Stream Analysis of BTC Future Trends
According to the official announcement, Huobi HTX will host a themed live stream today at 20:00 titled "Ceasefire Ends, Oil Price Surges Past 75, STRATEGY Sells Coins at Loss for First Time: Can BTC's Macro Narrative Still Hold?" During the event, crypto KOLs such as HuaBai Blockchain, Sincere Little Taoist, Crypto.0824, and OxPink will gather in the live stream room to conduct in-depth discussions on recent market hotspots such as the fluctuating situation in the Middle East and the strong upward trend in international oil prices, and combine Federal Reserve policy expectations to analyze BTC's future trend as well as crypto asset allocation opportunities and risk management strategies, providing investors with multi-dimensional market observations and trading ideas.
QCP: Structural Logic of Digital Assets Unchanged; Focus on Macro, AI Capital Diversion, and Corporate Holding Changes in Q3
Marginal institutional capital is increasingly flowing towards AI infrastructure, semiconductors, and large IPO projects; crypto assets failed to participate in the related rebound, and if the AI sector weakens, the crypto market may not necessarily remain unaffected. Additionally, corporate holding demand can no longer be regarded as stable bottom support, as market expectations regarding the stability of corporate-level Bitcoin holdings are changing.
Fidelity: Bitcoin is Approaching the Lower Support Line of the "Power Law Model," Potentially Entering a Historical Accumulation Zone
Jurien Timmer, Global Head of Macro at Fidelity, stated that Bitcoin is approaching the lower support line of the "Power Law Model," which is based on Bitcoin's complete price history. This long-term support level is currently around $58,000. With Bitcoin's current price at approximately $62,700 and gradually approaching this zone, it may have entered what the model defines as the "accumulation zone."However, Jurien Timmer did not confirm that the market has bottomed out. Instead, he believes that rather than an immediate rapid rebound, Bitcoin may fluctuate around the long-term support line for several months. Short-term capital has already exited, and fund flows have rotated from Bitcoin to gold, and then from gold to the semiconductor sector. Currently, market hotspots remain largely concentrated in the semiconductor field.
Analyst: Bitcoin’s downside risk is greater, selling call options offers better value now
: According to Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 level. Currently, GEX is concentrated around the $60,000 mark. As prices repeatedly fluctuate around this key level, both call and put positions have accumulated at this point.However, put positions are currently distributed in the $55,000 to $60,000 range, with a vacuum zone below $55,000. If breached, there is significant room for a decline. Meanwhile, the area above $60,000 is where prices have repeatedly traded in recent months, with more evenly distributed positions. Overall, the downside risk is greater. Macro uncertainty, coupled with capital outflows from the United States, makes it difficult to support the cryptocurrency market. Currently, selling call options offers better value.
Cathie Wood: AI New Technologies Kick Off Productivity Cycle; Inflation Rebound Narrative Weakened by Macro Data
Odaily, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood released her latest market views on X, stating that a series of current macroeconomic data continues to dispel market concerns about a renewed rise in inflation. The US economy is entering a new upward cycle driven by technological productivity and will not repeat the stagflationary scenario of the 1970s. On the data front, US productivity growth is at 3%, unit labor costs at 0.5%, and Truflation's core CPI is near 1.3%. Multiple indicators confirm that inflationary pressures remain low. Even with strong employment data, short-term market pullbacks only reflect investor sensitivity to interest rates and macro risks. The current market is in a classic "climbing the wall of worry" phase, similar to the 1980s and 1990s, where innovation dividends support long-term asset appreciation.Cathie Wood points out that core technologies such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and multi-omics are still in their early stages of development. The productivity-enhancing effects have yet to be fully reflected in economic statistics. This is the early phase of a tech-driven expansion cycle, and technological innovation will dominate medium- to long-term economic growth.
Analyst: Bitcoin May Enter Bottom Zone, 200-Week MA Becomes Key Macro Divergence Level
Analyst Ai pointed out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been regarded as a core indicator for judging "cycle bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:August 2015: Touched the 200-week MA and then started a bull run, with cumulative gains exceeding 8,500%December 2018: Bounced approximately 267% after testing this moving averageMarch 2020: Confirmed support after bottoming out due to the pandemic liquidity shock, followed by a rise of 1,125%June 2022: Fell below for the first time and remained below the moving average for a long period until reclaiming it in December, which triggered a rally of approximately 680%In the current market, the 200-week MA is located around $63,500, while Bitcoin's current price is trading below $60,000. Analysts believe this has already entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.At the same time, analysts also caution that potential downside risks remain. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme cases, testing the $40,000 range cannot be ruled out. However, overall, adopting a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for gradual position building is more suitable.Regarding key observation points, the $63,500 level is seen as the "bull-bear dividing line." If Bitcoin can firmly reclaim and confirm the 200-week MA as macro support on a higher time frame, historical patterns suggest it could signal that the early stages of a new bull cycle have already begun.