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Analysis: Bitcoin Selling Pressure Nears One-Year Low, Macro Risks May Limit Rebound
Odaily reports: According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, rising energy costs, higher real yields, and weakening consumer confidence have made the macroeconomic environment more complex. Whether BTC can break out of its current range still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and the subsequent trajectory of real yields and energy prices.Bitcoin has recently remained within a range of approximately 5.5% for more than 24 consecutive trading days, with the cost basis of roughly 840,000 BTC located within this range. As profit-taking has slowed notably, the seller risk ratio has dropped to 7 basis points, one of the lowest levels over the past year, though insufficient buying pressure continues to limit a breakout. Meanwhile, leverage is accumulating at both the upper and lower boundaries of the range, with approximately $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk concentrated near $82,000, while larger long positions exist in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, potentially amplifying price volatility following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
OpenAI Leads in Chip Testing, Macro Policies and Oil Price Volatility
OpenAI's self-developed Jalapeno chip demonstrates outstanding test results, while Jack Ma continues to increase his Alibaba holdings by over HK$600 million over consecutive days. Federal Reserve officials signal concerns regarding interest rate hikes and U.S. debt risks, Canada plans to impose additional tariffs on the United States, and cooling tensions in the Middle East drive crude oil prices sharply lower.
BIT: Bitcoin Records Strongest Rally Since 2023 Banking Crisis as Expectations for Macro Policy Support Rise
In its published analysis, BIT notes that Bitcoin is experiencing its strongest rally since the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023. During that period, US authorities implemented emergency measures to stabilize the banking system, and the current market sentiment mirrors that era—the recent interventions by the US Treasury in the Japanese yen FX market and bond markets have heightened investor expectations for further macroeconomic policy support. Meanwhile, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets has sent increasingly favorable signals, further bolstering market sentiment. BIT's official Chinese-language analysis indicates that Bitcoin has regained its upward momentum, aligning closely with the scenarios discussed in research over the past several weeks.
Grayscale believes Bitcoin's current price may offer a favorable entry point for long-term investors, as three factors converge
Odaily News: Zach Pandl, Head of Research at digital asset management firm Grayscale, stated that Bitcoin's structural adoption trend continues, the current bear market has entered a deeper stage, and the macro outlook is generally favorable. These three factors may provide a basis for long-term investors to enter, though prices could still decline.Grayscale noted that Bitcoin's adoption growth is primarily driven by government deficits, the expanding application of blockchain technology in the financial services sector, and generational shifts in investor asset allocation. The current bear market has lasted 10 months, approaching the average and median duration of 11 to 12 months observed across the previous four cyclical bear markets.Macro risks mainly depend on real interest rates and Federal Reserve policy. The Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in July, and future rate hikes could push Bitcoin lower. Bitcoin briefly rose to $79,461 on August 21 before pulling back to around $77,000. (Bitcoin.com News)
Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches $80,000 Mark, ETF Inflows and Macro Liquidity Become Key Variables
Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)
Federal Reserve Rate Decision Preview: Inflation Concerns and Policy Divergence Take Center Stage
Odaily News Tim Duy, Chief US Economist at SGH Macro Advisors, said that the recent appearance of multiple Fed officials casting dissenting votes on rate decisions has become more common over the past few years. Especially during periods when the economy faces multiple pressures and the policy path is unclear, strong disagreements among officials are likely, leading to more dissenting votes.Regarding the upcoming release of the Fed's meeting minutes, Duy believes the market's core focus will be on how widespread officials' concerns about inflation truly are. He noted that at the time, inflation was clearly running above the Fed's target, and policymakers worried that inflation would not quickly return to target levels. Meanwhile, the labor market was seen as having stabilized, which led some officials to strongly believe the Fed should raise rates to curb inflationary pressures. As a result, the market will closely watch how many Fed officials share this assessment, and whether concerns about inflation have formed a broader consensus within the decision-making ranks. The degree of divergence among officials over the policy path will also serve as an important clue for judging the future direction of interest rates.
BIT: Fed Pause on Rate Hikes Could Mark the Start of a Q4 Crypto Rally
According to BIT's weekly "On Target" report, BIT analysts identify two key market catalysts: first, U.S. debt has surpassed the psychological threshold of $40 trillion, and second, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the critical 5.0% level. Since July 24, Bitcoin has accumulated gains of 22% and gold has risen 9.4%, confirming earlier forecasts. Macro cycle models indicate that the market is currently in the first phase of cyclical reflation, typically accompanied by a weakening U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data indicates that during this phase: • Annualized returns for U.S. equities at approximately 29% • Annualized returns for gold at approximately 47% • Annualized returns for Bitcoin at approximately 73% Furthermore, between 2020 and 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of U.S. debt has reached 8.59%, while the CAGR for M2 money supply stands at 6.02%, significantly outpacing the CPI's 4.11%. This sustained accumulation of long-term inflationary pressure further reinforces the allocation rationale for gold and Bitcoin.
Analysis: Bitcoin Approaches $80,000 Mark, ETF Inflows and Macro Liquidity Become Key Variables
Odaily News比特币 rose to its highest level since May before the US market opened on Friday, briefly touching $79,400 during trading before hovering around $78,000, just one step away from the key resistance level of $80,000. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of $606 million on Thursday, the highest level since May 1, boosting market risk appetite.James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, stated that this rally is primarily driven by macroeconomic factors rather than factors within the crypto market itself, noting that Bitcoin remains highly sensitive to changes in liquidity expectations and real yields. Previously, US inflation data came in below expectations, employment data weakened, and the US Treasury announced measures to push down long-term Treasury yields, all of which drove risk assets higher.Butterfill pointed out that $80,000 is an important demarcation line for Bitcoin at present. To form an effective breakout, the market needs further confirmation that the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is shifting toward easing, with related signals potentially released at next week's Jackson Hole symposium.However, he also cautioned that if inflation remains persistently high or the dollar weakens, the Fed may be forced to adopt a more cautious policy. Additionally, the scale of accumulation by large holders remains relatively limited, and the market still lacks strong confidence to support a sustained breakout. Going forward, US spot Bitcoin ETF fund flows and macroeconomic data performance will serve as key indicators for judging the sustainability of the trend. (CoinDesk)
Analyst: Bitcoin’s downside risk is greater, selling call options offers better value now
: According to Adam, a macro researcher at Greeks.live, Bitcoin has reclaimed the $60,000 level. Currently, GEX is concentrated around the $60,000 mark. As prices repeatedly fluctuate around this key level, both call and put positions have accumulated at this point.However, put positions are currently distributed in the $55,000 to $60,000 range, with a vacuum zone below $55,000. If breached, there is significant room for a decline. Meanwhile, the area above $60,000 is where prices have repeatedly traded in recent months, with more evenly distributed positions. Overall, the downside risk is greater. Macro uncertainty, coupled with capital outflows from the United States, makes it difficult to support the cryptocurrency market. Currently, selling call options offers better value.
Analyst: Bitcoin May Enter Bottom Zone, 200-Week MA Becomes Key Macro Divergence Level
Analyst Ai pointed out that over the past decade, Bitcoin's 200-week simple moving average (200-week SMA) has been regarded as a core indicator for judging "cycle bottoms." Historically, every time the price touched or fell below this moving average, it was accompanied by a long-term macro accumulation window, followed by a strong upward cycle. Reviewing historical performance:August 2015: Touched the 200-week MA and then started a bull run, with cumulative gains exceeding 8,500%December 2018: Bounced approximately 267% after testing this moving averageMarch 2020: Confirmed support after bottoming out due to the pandemic liquidity shock, followed by a rise of 1,125%June 2022: Fell below for the first time and remained below the moving average for a long period until reclaiming it in December, which triggered a rally of approximately 680%In the current market, the 200-week MA is located around $63,500, while Bitcoin's current price is trading below $60,000. Analysts believe this has already entered a typical long-term value accumulation zone.At the same time, analysts also caution that potential downside risks remain. In the short term, a pullback to $54,000 is possible, and in extreme cases, testing the $40,000 range cannot be ruled out. However, overall, adopting a Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) strategy for gradual position building is more suitable.Regarding key observation points, the $63,500 level is seen as the "bull-bear dividing line." If Bitcoin can firmly reclaim and confirm the 200-week MA as macro support on a higher time frame, historical patterns suggest it could signal that the early stages of a new bull cycle have already begun.
Greeks.live Macro Researcher: The decline has not caused market concern; the current market does not support chasing short positions
, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X stating that through Options Terminal analysis of the weekend market, it was found that large funds mainly engaged in three types of operations:Selling near-term gamma and near-month volatility;Buying downside protection for medium-to-long-term tenors, or constructing defensive structures such as put fly and collar;Conducting pin and roll operations around the $79,000 to $80,000 range.He stated that the current market does not support chasing short positions, and the decline has not caused market concern, with whales expecting short-term consolidation.
Next Week's Macro Calendar: US, UK, and Japanese Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions and China's August M2 Release
Next week marks the super central bank week, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan set to announce their interest rate decisions in succession. Meanwhile, key Chinese economic data for August, including the year-on-year M2 money supply growth rate, retail sales, and industrial value-added, will be released in quick succession.
BIT: Bitcoin Records Strongest Rally Since 2023 Banking Crisis as Expectations for Macro Policy Support Rise
In its published analysis, BIT notes that Bitcoin is experiencing its strongest rally since the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023. During that period, US authorities implemented emergency measures to stabilize the banking system, and the current market sentiment mirrors that era—the recent interventions by the US Treasury in the Japanese yen FX market and bond markets have heightened investor expectations for further macroeconomic policy support. Meanwhile, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets has sent increasingly favorable signals, further bolstering market sentiment. BIT's official Chinese-language analysis indicates that Bitcoin has regained its upward momentum, aligning closely with the scenarios discussed in research over the past several weeks.
Cathie Wood: AI New Technologies Kick Off Productivity Cycle; Inflation Rebound Narrative Weakened by Macro Data
Odaily, ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood released her latest market views on X, stating that a series of current macroeconomic data continues to dispel market concerns about a renewed rise in inflation. The US economy is entering a new upward cycle driven by technological productivity and will not repeat the stagflationary scenario of the 1970s. On the data front, US productivity growth is at 3%, unit labor costs at 0.5%, and Truflation's core CPI is near 1.3%. Multiple indicators confirm that inflationary pressures remain low. Even with strong employment data, short-term market pullbacks only reflect investor sensitivity to interest rates and macro risks. The current market is in a classic "climbing the wall of worry" phase, similar to the 1980s and 1990s, where innovation dividends support long-term asset appreciation.Cathie Wood points out that core technologies such as AI, robotics, autonomous driving, and multi-omics are still in their early stages of development. The productivity-enhancing effects have yet to be fully reflected in economic statistics. This is the early phase of a tech-driven expansion cycle, and technological innovation will dominate medium- to long-term economic growth.
Greeks.live Macro Researcher: The decline has not caused market concern; the current market does not support chasing short positions
, Greeks.live macro researcher Adam posted on platform X stating that through Options Terminal analysis of the weekend market, it was found that large funds mainly engaged in three types of operations:Selling near-term gamma and near-month volatility;Buying downside protection for medium-to-long-term tenors, or constructing defensive structures such as put fly and collar;Conducting pin and roll operations around the $79,000 to $80,000 range.He stated that the current market does not support chasing short positions, and the decline has not caused market concern, with whales expecting short-term consolidation.
Next Week’s Macro Outlook | “Super Central Bank Week” Arrives, Powell to Hold Press Conference
Investors closely monitored developments in the Middle East over the past week. Frequent shifts in news flow—coupled with the cancellation of a highly anticipated meeting between U.S. and Iranian representatives and multiple statements by U.S. President Trump—led to volatility in market risk sentiment. Notably, major U.S. equity indices still managed to reach new all-time highs. However, the market outlook is not entirely rosy, as conflict remains prone to sudden escalation. Below are key events investors will focus on in the coming week: Monday, 10:30 p.m. ET: Dallas Fed Business Activity Index for April Tuesday, 8:15 p.m. ET: ADP Employment Change for the week ending April 11 Tuesday, 10:00 p.m. ET: Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for April; Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April Wednesday, 4:30 a.m. ET: API Crude Oil Inventories for the week ending April 24 Wednesday, 10:30 p.m. ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories, EIA Cushing, Oklahoma Crude Oil Inventories, and EIA Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) Inventories for the week ending April 24 Thursday, 2:00 a.m. ET: FOMC Interest Rate Decision Thursday, 2:30 a.m. ET: FOMC Press Conference with Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Thursday, 8:30 p.m. ET: Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 26; March PCE Price Index; March Personal Spending MoM; Q1 Labor Cost Index (QoQ); Q1 Real GDP Annualized Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); Q1 Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Growth Rate (Advance Estimate); U.S.
Related news
Analysis: Bitcoin Selling Pressure Nears One-Year Low, Macro Risks May Limit Rebound
Odaily reports: According to the latest Bitfinex Alpha report, rising energy costs, higher real yields, and weakening consumer confidence have made the macroeconomic environment more complex. Whether BTC can break out of its current range still depends on the Federal Reserve's policy guidance and the subsequent trajectory of real yields and energy prices.Bitcoin has recently remained within a range of approximately 5.5% for more than 24 consecutive trading days, with the cost basis of roughly 840,000 BTC located within this range. As profit-taking has slowed notably, the seller risk ratio has dropped to 7 basis points, one of the lowest levels over the past year, though insufficient buying pressure continues to limit a breakout. Meanwhile, leverage is accumulating at both the upper and lower boundaries of the range, with approximately $1.95 billion in short liquidation risk concentrated near $82,000, while larger long positions exist in the $75,000 to $76,000 range, potentially amplifying price volatility following the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.
Next Week's Macro Calendar: US, UK, and Japanese Central Bank Interest Rate Decisions and China's August M2 Release
Next week marks the super central bank week, with the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Bank of Japan set to announce their interest rate decisions in succession. Meanwhile, key Chinese economic data for August, including the year-on-year M2 money supply growth rate, retail sales, and industrial value-added, will be released in quick succession.
BIT: Fed Pause on Rate Hikes Could Mark the Start of a Q4 Crypto Rally
According to BIT's weekly "On Target" report, BIT analysts identify two key market catalysts: first, U.S. debt has surpassed the psychological threshold of $40 trillion, and second, U.S. Treasury yields are approaching the critical 5.0% level. Since July 24, Bitcoin has accumulated gains of 22% and gold has risen 9.4%, confirming earlier forecasts. Macro cycle models indicate that the market is currently in the first phase of cyclical reflation, typically accompanied by a weakening U.S. dollar and rising commodity prices. Historical data indicates that during this phase: • Annualized returns for U.S. equities at approximately 29% • Annualized returns for gold at approximately 47% • Annualized returns for Bitcoin at approximately 73% Furthermore, between 2020 and 2026, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of U.S. debt has reached 8.59%, while the CAGR for M2 money supply stands at 6.02%, significantly outpacing the CPI's 4.11%. This sustained accumulation of long-term inflationary pressure further reinforces the allocation rationale for gold and Bitcoin.
BlackRock Head of Digital Assets: Macro Environment Is Boosting Bitcoin's Appeal as a Store of Value
Robbie Mitchnick, Head of Digital Assets at BlackRock, stated that U.S. fiscal debt and deficit levels are becoming a primary market concern, with assets such as Bitcoin and gold typically benefiting when these risks regain attention. He noted that Bitcoin's recent performance relative to equity and bond markets further underscores its unique appeal as an emerging store-of-value asset.
OpenAI Leads in Chip Testing, Macro Policies and Oil Price Volatility
OpenAI's self-developed Jalapeno chip demonstrates outstanding test results, while Jack Ma continues to increase his Alibaba holdings by over HK$600 million over consecutive days. Federal Reserve officials signal concerns regarding interest rate hikes and U.S. debt risks, Canada plans to impose additional tariffs on the United States, and cooling tensions in the Middle East drive crude oil prices sharply lower.
BIT: Bitcoin Records Strongest Rally Since 2023 Banking Crisis as Expectations for Macro Policy Support Rise
In its published analysis, BIT notes that Bitcoin is experiencing its strongest rally since the collapses of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank in March 2023. During that period, US authorities implemented emergency measures to stabilize the banking system, and the current market sentiment mirrors that era—the recent interventions by the US Treasury in the Japanese yen FX market and bond markets have heightened investor expectations for further macroeconomic policy support. Meanwhile, the SEC's proposed regulatory framework for crypto assets has sent increasingly favorable signals, further bolstering market sentiment. BIT's official Chinese-language analysis indicates that Bitcoin has regained its upward momentum, aligning closely with the scenarios discussed in research over the past several weeks.