Morgan Stanley: Semtech Data Center Revenue Increases 39% Quarter-Over-Quarter; 1.6T Optical Chip Ramp Drives Target Price Upgrade to $195

According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's August 25 research report indicated that Semtech's Q2 data center revenue reached $100 million, up 39% quarter-over-quarter and 91% year-over-year, marking a record high. Growth was primarily driven by the sustained strength of the 800G FiberEdge and faster-than-expected qualification of the 1.6T FiberEdge. The 1.6T FiberEdge and CopperEdge are projected to account for over 50% of data center revenue in Q3. The Q3 data center revenue guidance reflects a 45% quarter-over-quarter increase and a 160% year-over-year increase, reaching $145 million. The LoRa business also recorded record revenue of $58 million in Q2, up 31% quarter-over-quarter and 58% year-over-year, with an additional 15% increase expected in Q3. Morgan Stanley raised its price target from $175 to $195 while maintaining a Neutral rating, based on 34.5x non-GAAP EPS of $5.66. Revenue forecasts for FY2027 and FY2028 have been raised to $1.529 billion and $1.895 billion, respectively, with gross margins upgraded to 56.9% and 62.7%, and EPS increased to $3.69 and $5.65. In Q4, ACC (active copper cable) is slated for mass deployment at major hyperscale customers, creating a synergistic effect alongside 800G and 1.6T solutions. The company has announced the divestiture of its module business, which is expected to drive structural improvements in gross margin and operating margin. As disclosed in this research report