Barclays: AI Lab Gross Margin Gap Exceeds 50 Percentage Points; The Secret Lies Entirely in API Revenue Mix

Barclays expects inference profits to gradually surpass training costs, boosting AI labs' own profit margins. However, AWS, Azure, and GCP will still account for the bulk of AI labs' compute expenditure over the next two years. Starting in 2028, the deployment of self-built infrastructure by AI labs will gradually shift this dynamic. Barclays holds that when benchmarking AI labs, investors should look beyond top-line revenue figures and drill down into underlying variables such as product mix, the share of API and subscription revenue, and revenue recognition methodologies.