News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News “1011 Insider Whale” agent Garrett Jin pointed out in his latest market commentary that, against the backdrop of the Middle East conflict, the Strait of Hormuz has been effectively “blockaded” for three months. However, the market has already become “desensitized” to this geopolitical risk, and the AI narrative is reshaping traditional risk pricing logic. As a result, AI is significantly weakening the market's sensitivity to oil prices and geopolitical shocks. Since the emergence of ceasefire signals, U.S. stocks have “decoupled” from energy shocks, with gains in chip and tech stocks offsetting the impact from the energy sector, leading the market to gradually overlook the Strait of Hormuz risk. Nevertheless, he cautioned that the AI sector faces short-term risks of overvaluation and crowded trades, and a pullback could occur at any time.In the energy market, the earlier assessment that the Strait of Hormuz risk had not been fully priced in has proven correct. Oil prices had risen due to supply shock expectations, but peaked and then declined following the release of strategic reserves and the U.S. intervention as a “supplier of last resort.” A successful exit was achieved on April 29-30. He believes the current risk-reward ratio for oil prices is no longer attractive.On the macro and equity market front, U.S. households' holdings of stocks as a percentage of financial assets have reached approximately 47%, surpassing the level seen during the internet bubble era. This means a market downturn would, in turn, constrain policy. The VIX volatility index triggered different policy shift thresholds around 30 and 50, reflecting a “risk-off driven policy” characteristic.In the gold market, the recent pullback in gold is not due to the fading of a war premium but rather changes in long-term structural demand. Since 2022, central banks globally have been purchasing gold at an average annual rate of over a thousand tons, primarily for de-dollarization and hedging against sanctions risks. He defines gold as “an ultimate exit tool outside the dollar system” rather than a mere safe-haven asset.In the crypto market, the liquidity inflection point occurred last October, with funds flowing more toward AI assets, leading to a periodic drain from the crypto market. However, he believes the market is currently in a cyclical bear phase. Rebound rallies exist, but they do not equate to the start of a new bull run. The market must wait for liquidity to restart in a new cycle. The AI era is emerging as the dominant capital narrative. Even if a bubble exists, the structural opportunities it brings represent “a rare window of opportunity for ordinary investors.” Nevertheless, market cycle discipline should not be overlooked.
Odaily报道, “BTC OG insider whale” Garrett Jin has released his “Weekly Market Strategy Signal.” In his analysis, he points out that the current geopolitical situation and the trajectory of the US dollar are deadlocked: despite US strikes on Iranian-related targets, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz remain unresolved. Although US Secretary of State Rubio signaled “positive news,” the peace agreement proposed by Iran has already been vetoed by the White House.Long-term US Treasury yields continue to hover in the 5.07% – 5.18% range, reaching their highest levels in 19 years. The S&P 500 index briefly hit a new high before quickly pulling back. Garrett Jin believes that a single positive or negative catalyst is insufficient to change the market landscape. Only when at least two of the three key factors—the credit environment, Federal Reserve policy, and geopolitical conditions—converge can the market experience a substantial shift.On another front, capital expenditure in the AI sector is accelerating its shift from the United States to Asia. ByteDance plans to increase its capital expenditure to as high as $70 billion this year, while Tencent and Alibaba are also ramping up their investments. Competition in the AI arena has now escalated to the level of national competition.
According to Blue Whale News, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) announced that it has initiated an investigation into Tiger Brokers (NZ) Limited, Futu Securities International (Hong Kong) Limited, and Longbridge Securities (Hong Kong) Limited—and their related domestic and overseas entities—for illegally conducting securities business within mainland China, and has issued a prior notice of administrative penalty. In response, Tiger Brokers stated: “The company has noted the relevant notice and will fully cooperate with the regulatory authorities in accordance with regulatory requirements. Currently, all of the company’s business operations are running normally. Tiger Brokers consistently prioritizes compliance and maintains close communication with regulatory authorities.”
According to Decrypt, an anonymous cryptocurrency whale filed a lawsuit against Coinbase this week in the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of California, accusing the exchange of refusing to return over $55 million worth of DAI stablecoins stolen in a phishing attack in 2024. The plaintiff claims to have engaged multiple on-chain investigation firms to trace the funds, ultimately identifying that the stolen assets flowed into a Coinbase account. Coinbase confirmed in December 2024 that it had frozen the relevant assets but refused to return them, citing the need for a court order. As of today—more than a year and a half after the incident—the victim has still not recovered the assets and has therefore turned to litigation. The attack was carried out by hackers using the “Inferno Drainer” tool to spoof the DeFi Saver login page; after the victim inadvertently interacted with the fake page, their wallet was fully compromised by the attackers.
Garrett Jin, agent representing the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that Trump’s launch of the so-called “Project Freedom” is not a de-risking signal, but is more likely to act as a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Multiple factors are converging, including energy inventory pressures, enhanced regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic pathways. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals, but their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risks. Overall, investors are advised to maintain a cautious and hedging mindset, paying close attention to the potential disruption of market sentiment by macroeconomic and geopolitical variables.Although the market has interpreted this move as a sign of easing tensions, driving risk assets higher, the underlying structure is more akin to a strategic framework of “limited engagement plus potential response.” The action primarily maintains shipping security through coordinated shipping lanes, insurance support, and military standby, rather than direct escort operations. This approach could, in fact, amplify reactions to specific triggering events.
Garrett Jin, the agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” authored an analysis stating that Trump’s so-called “Project Freedom” is not a signal of risk mitigation but rather a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Although the market interprets it as a de-escalation and has driven risk assets higher, its underlying structure more closely resembles a “limited engagement + potential response” strategic framework. This initiative primarily maintains maritime security through coordination of shipping lanes, insurance support, and military readiness—rather than direct naval escort—potentially amplifying market reactions once triggered by specific events. Meanwhile, multiple factors—including energy inventory pressures, heightened regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic channels—are converging. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals; however, their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risk. Overall, investors are advised to maintain caution and adopt hedging strategies, closely monitoring how macroeconomic and geopolitical variables could potentially disrupt market sentiment.