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Nomura: ChangXin Surges 471% on First-Day Opening, Target Price of 116 Yuan Implies 12x Upside

According to Chaoxiang Research, CXMT listed on the STAR Market on July 27, surging 471% at opening, with market capitalization briefly exceeding 3.3 trillion yuan. Nomura Securities released its initiation report on the same day, granting a Buy rating with a target price of 116 yuan, corresponding to a 20x P/E ratio based on 2028 EPS of 5.8 yuan, implying over 12x upside based on an issue price of 8.66 yuan. Nomura noted that AI is driving a structural surge in DRAM demand, with AI memory demand CAGR exceeding 60% from 2026 to 2030, while global supply growth rate is only 30% to 40%, and the supply-demand gap will continue to widen. As the world's fourth-largest DRAM manufacturer, CXMT currently holds a global share of about 10%, expected to rise to 18% by the end of 2028, approaching Micron's scale. Q1 2026 revenue was 50.8 billion yuan (YoY +719%), and net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 24.76 billion yuan (YoY +1688%), with quarterly profit already exceeding the full year 2025. Nomura believes CXMT should enjoy a "China premium," with the 20x PE valuation based on the midpoint between Micron's 10x historical average and the 1 to 3x valuation gap between Chinese and US semiconductor equipment stocks. Northeast Securities gave a valuation range of 3.2 to 5.7 trillion yuan on the same day, while Nomura's 7.76 trillion yuan is relatively optimistic; the core divergence lies in CXMT's long-term market share ceiling.

Bernstein: AI Computing Power Continues to Expand, Semiconductor Equipment Valuation Has Upside Potential

According to TechFlow Research, Bernstein released a semiconductor equipment industry research report on July 20, 2026, estimating that AI data center expansion will significantly drive equipment demand.

“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity: Jabil May Be Undervalued by the Market, AI Optical Module Business Could Drive a 40% Valuation Revaluation Upside

“White-Haired Stock God” Serenity posted on platform X, stating that Jabil (JBL), currently with a market cap of approximately $38 billion, represents an attractive long-term investment opportunity. The market may not have fully priced in the potential value of its 1.6T LRO pluggable optical module business.By the first half of 2027, the industry bottleneck may no longer be insufficient demand, but rather the production capacity limitations of key upstream supplier SIVE. In this context, leveraging its mature global supply chain system and the advantage of taking over Intel's (INTC) pluggable optical module production line, Jabil is well-positioned to benefit from the demand growth driven by AI infrastructure construction. Compared to Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI), which relies on continuous capital expenditure to expand laser factories, if SIVE and multiple foundries including Win Semi achieve mass production of lasers, Jabil's backend manufacturing and integration model will prove more scalable.Serenity stated that Jabil currently possesses a supply chain system validated by hyperscale cloud service providers, exhibiting a growth trajectory similar to that of Innolight, while also enjoying a valuation premium in the US market. He expects that as the market gradually recognizes the relevant opportunities by the first half of 2027, Jabil has approximately 40% room for valuation revaluation. However, he emphasized that he currently holds no positions and is merely sharing research ideas for investors' reference.

Bernstein Reiterates Figure Price Target of $67: Sees 72% Upside Driven by Tokenization

Bernstein has reiterated its "Outperform" rating on Figure Technology Solutions (FIGR) and maintained a price target of $67, implying approximately 72% upside from the current share price of $38.97.Figure posted strong Q1 2026 results: loan origination volume reached $2.9 billion, up 113% year-over-year; adjusted revenue was $167 million, surpassing market expectations by 6% and up 92% year-over-year; adjusted EBITDA was $82.7 million, with a margin of approximately 50%, slightly above market consensus. However, GAAP diluted EPS was $0.18, missing expectations by about 9%, primarily impacted by $26 million in stock-based compensation expenses.Bernstein analysts believe this performance should reshape market perception of Figure, viewing it not as a traditional credit company, but as a "tokenization-driven capital markets platform." Core profitability stems from network fees and operational leverage from scaling, and the valuation framework remains based on 25x 2027 EBITDA. Additionally, the tokenization ecosystem continues to expand: the yield-bearing security token YLDS reached $598 million (up 80% quarter-over-quarter); the stock lending product balance stood at $368 million (up 79%); and the small business loan segment contributed $60 million in revenue.Figure's current share price remains not far from its 2025 IPO offering price of $36, but still significantly below its all-time high of $78. (The Block)