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Market Awaits Fed Decision as BTC Short-Term Options Bearish Sentiment Cools Notably

Odaily reports: Bitcoin rose about 0.8% since midnight (UTC) on Monday to $81,400, after briefly falling below $80,000. Ethereum gained 0.9%, Asian chip stocks led a tech rebound, South Korea's KOSPI rose 6.6%, SK Hynix climbed about 11% on roughly 7x year-over-year profit growth, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%.The Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the market sees about a 92% probability of rates being held steady. Traders will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to gauge whether there is any possibility of a rate hike ahead. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $176 million on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive trading day of inflows.On the derivatives side, crypto futures trading volume rose 7.5% over the past 24 hours to $163.2 billion, open interest increased only 1.3%, and liquidations rose 38% to $183.6 million. Bitcoin rose 2.3% while open interest actually fell 0.1%; Ethereum rose 2.7% with open interest up 1.7%, indicating the price rebound has not yet been accompanied by large-scale new leverage. ZEC open interest grew 14%, higher than its 6.3% price gain over the same period, making it one of the large crypto assets with the most obvious new position building.In the options market, Deribit data shows that Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, indicating that demand for short-term downside protection has weakened somewhat, though the one-month, three-month and six-month tenors remain clearly skewed toward puts. Meanwhile, gold futures open interest fell 10%, while open interest for Tether's gold token XAUT rose 11.6%, showing divergent capital flows. (CoinDesk)

BIT: AI Stock Sell-off Triggers BTC Drop Below $60,000, Market Shows "Orderly Decline" Rather Than Panic

According to the weekly market report released by BIT Official, heavy selling in semiconductor and AI stocks on June 23-24 triggered defensive adjustments by institutional capital. BTC fell below $60K on June 24, hitting a low of ~$59,000 (intraday decline of approximately 5%). Approximately $994 million in liquidations occurred during the same period (of which approximately $780 million were long positions). Approximately $1.2 billion in nominal Put positions at the $60K level forced market makers to short, exacerbating the downward trend. As of the weekend, BTC was quoted at ~$59,992, down 6.9% for the week; ETH was quoted at ~$1,578, down 9.3% for the week. In terms of volatility, DVOL only rose slightly (BTC 44.1→45.7, ETH 57.3→59.5), front-end skew tended to stabilize, and convexity returned to normal. The institutional defensive hedging ratio decreased from 29.6% to 19.7%, shifting towards two-way balance, overall showing characteristics of an "orderly decline" rather than panic selling. In terms of ETFs, for the week ending June 26, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.79 billion, marking the second-highest weekly outflow record in history, and have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks; IBIT net assets decreased to approximately $44.4 billion, with average holders having an unrealized loss of approximately 40%. Strategy purchased only 520 BTC this week (approximately $34.9 million), significantly slowing down compared to the previous two weeks. MSTR stock price has fallen below its BTC book value, and the flywheel effect has been affected

BTC IV remains low while Gamma reversal occurs, the options market presents a "near-term bearish, long-term bullish" structure

Odaily News: BTC IV at 38%, ETH IV at 53%. ETH Skew shows divergence, with the mid-to-long-term maintaining +2 to +4, indicating strong institutional bullish consensus. The short-term skew has sharply deteriorated to -8 to -12 due to CPI exceeding expectations and Powell's resignation, leading to a surge in short-term hedging demand. BTC/ETH GEX has shifted from a long Gamma, steady bull market strategy to short Gamma, widening short-term volatility and making it difficult for IV to drop significantly. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact, with the current situation appearing more like an event-driven release of short-term risk rather than a trend reversal. In block trades, 2,181.8 lots (worth $176 million) of BTC 5/15 expiry $82K Calls were traded; 11,026 lots (worth $24.97 million) of ETH June $2,100 Puts were traded.Gate has launched an exclusive incentive plan for options VIPs. During the event, users can participate to share a 100,000 USDT prize pool. The platform supports cross-exchange VIP rate matching. By submitting VIP proof or trading volume records from other exchanges, users can apply for lower rates. Rewards are distributed in tiers based on options trading volume; the more you trade, the higher the reward. Additionally, participating users enjoy exclusive service benefits, including VIP customer support, API technical integration, and daily options strategies and data services, providing professional traders with more competitive trading costs and liquidity support.

Glassnode: BTC Rises to ~$82,000 in Its 20th Week, with On-Chain Activity and Derivatives Risk Appetite Rising in Tandem

Glassnode’s Week 20 BTC Market Report states that BTC rose last week from above $77,000 to below $82,000, with strengthening spot demand and futures activity and sustained buying absorbing pullbacks. The report notes rising Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), spot trading volume, futures open interest, and perpetual swap CVD—indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, price momentum slowed, and long funding rates declined, signaling a marginal cooling of bullish sentiment. In the options market, demand for downside protection decreased and open interest increased, yet the volatility skew widened, reflecting persistently high market uncertainty. On-chain metrics show increases in daily active addresses, entity-adjusted transaction volume, and total fees; profitability indicators improved, and the overall market structure continues to recover.