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Analysis: BTC Unlikely to Hold Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Curbs Breakout Expectations
Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)
Bitcoin Spot ETFs See Net Inflows for 9 Consecutive Days, Total Inflows Reaching Approximately $2.1 Billion
according to data monitoring from SoSoValue, Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded net inflows for the 9th consecutive trading day on April 24, with a single-day inflow of $14.45 million. The total cumulative inflows during this continuous period amounted to approximately $2.1 billion, marking the longest net inflow streak since September 2025. Last week, ETFs saw total inflows of $823.7 million, with BlackRock's IBIT recording weekly inflows of $983 million, hitting a new high in nearly six months.CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju stated that the current Bitcoin market is driven by futures, with open interest continuing to rise. However, aside from ETF inflows and MicroStrategy purchases, on-chain apparent demand remains negative. The chief analyst at CEX.IO pointed out that the recent price increase has been notably driven by short squeezes. Since April 13, the total amount of short liquidations has reached approximately $2.8 billion, far exceeding the $1.8 billion in long liquidations. Part of the ETF demand may stem from basis trading strategies, specifically buying IBIT while shorting CME futures to capture the spread. This strategy is market-neutral and not purely bullish. Currently, the options market's 25-delta skew is in negative territory, indicating that investors are paying a premium to seek downside protection.
QCP: BTC Monthly Gain Exceeds 14%; Geopolitical and Security Incidents Disrupt Market Sentiment
QCP Group’s analysis states that U.S.-Iran negotiations have once again collapsed, while the Middle East ceasefire continues, leaving the overall geopolitical landscape relatively static. A shooting incident occurred at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, with Trump suspected as the target. Following Asia’s market open, BTC briefly surged past $79,000 and ETH above $2,400—but gains quickly reversed amid concerns triggered by news of Iran’s Foreign Minister traveling to Russia for talks with Putin. Since early April, BTC has rallied over 14% cumulatively, marking four consecutive weeks of positive closes. Spot ETFs recorded nine straight days of net inflows totaling approximately $2.11 billion. Strategy funds added over $3.8 billion worth of BTC in the past month. The current key resistance level for BTC lies near the CME gap around $82,000. BTC perpetual contract funding rates remain persistently negative; a breakout above this level could trigger short-covering. Implied volatility continues declining, and risk-reversal skew has narrowed somewhat, signaling gradually rising market interest in upside exposure. Key events this week: - April 29: Earnings reports from Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Google, plus the FOMC interest-rate decision. - April 30: Apple earnings report, U.S. Q1 GDP data, and March PCE inflation data.
BTC IV remains low while Gamma reversal occurs, the options market presents a "near-term bearish, long-term bullish" structure
Odaily News: BTC IV at 38%, ETH IV at 53%. ETH Skew shows divergence, with the mid-to-long-term maintaining +2 to +4, indicating strong institutional bullish consensus. The short-term skew has sharply deteriorated to -8 to -12 due to CPI exceeding expectations and Powell's resignation, leading to a surge in short-term hedging demand. BTC/ETH GEX has shifted from a long Gamma, steady bull market strategy to short Gamma, widening short-term volatility and making it difficult for IV to drop significantly. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact, with the current situation appearing more like an event-driven release of short-term risk rather than a trend reversal. In block trades, 2,181.8 lots (worth $176 million) of BTC 5/15 expiry $82K Calls were traded; 11,026 lots (worth $24.97 million) of ETH June $2,100 Puts were traded.Gate has launched an exclusive incentive plan for options VIPs. During the event, users can participate to share a 100,000 USDT prize pool. The platform supports cross-exchange VIP rate matching. By submitting VIP proof or trading volume records from other exchanges, users can apply for lower rates. Rewards are distributed in tiers based on options trading volume; the more you trade, the higher the reward. Additionally, participating users enjoy exclusive service benefits, including VIP customer support, API technical integration, and daily options strategies and data services, providing professional traders with more competitive trading costs and liquidity support.
Glassnode: BTC Rises to ~$82,000 in Its 20th Week, with On-Chain Activity and Derivatives Risk Appetite Rising in Tandem
Glassnode’s Week 20 BTC Market Report states that BTC rose last week from above $77,000 to below $82,000, with strengthening spot demand and futures activity and sustained buying absorbing pullbacks. The report notes rising Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), spot trading volume, futures open interest, and perpetual swap CVD—indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, price momentum slowed, and long funding rates declined, signaling a marginal cooling of bullish sentiment. In the options market, demand for downside protection decreased and open interest increased, yet the volatility skew widened, reflecting persistently high market uncertainty. On-chain metrics show increases in daily active addresses, entity-adjusted transaction volume, and total fees; profitability indicators improved, and the overall market structure continues to recover.
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Analysis: Bitcoin Rebounds After Dropping Below $60,000, but Derivatives Market Sends Clear Bearish Signal
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin briefly dropped to $61,300 before rebounding to approximately $62,500, with around $3 billion in crypto market liquidations accumulated over the past two days. Derivatives data shows open interest declined by 8.5% to $111.4 billion, indicating leveraged positions are being unwound. In the options market, put skew for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has strengthened; the notional open interest for $60,000-strike put options on Deribit exceeds $1 billion. Meanwhile, SOL’s open interest rose to an all-time high amid its price decline, suggesting a potential increase in short positions, and overall sentiment in the derivatives market remains bearish.
Analysis: BTC Unlikely to Hold Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Curbs Breakout Expectations
Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)
Glassnode: BTC Market Momentum Weakens, Selling Pressure Intensifies, Options Market Shifts to Defensive Mode
According to Glassnode’s weekly report, Bitcoin’s momentum has noticeably weakened following its rally from the $60K level to a local peak of $82K; the price has since pulled back to the $77K range, with sellers regaining short-term control of the market. In the spot market, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) plunged 848.7%. Although spot trading volume rose modestly by 4.2%, this overall reflects heightened trading activity—not bullish sentiment. In the futures market, open interest declined by 2.9%, and perpetual contract CVD dropped 278.7%, indicating shrinking leverage demand and intensifying selling pressure. Meanwhile, long funding payments rose逆势 by 136.6%, suggesting that some traders continue to hold bullish positions. In the options market, the 25-Delta skew increased by 42.75%, signaling traders’ clear shift toward downside protection; the volatility skew widened by 124.52%, reflecting rising market expectations for future price volatility. On the traditional finance front, the MVRV ratio of U.S. spot ETFs fell 6.1%, while net inflows deteriorated significantly—indicating weakening institutional confidence. On-chain active addresses declined, yet entity-adjusted transfer volume rose, suggesting continued large-capital movements. Both NUPL and the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio weakened, pointing to a more defensive market sentiment. Overall, Bitcoin’s market structure is beginning to soften. However, the proportion of long-term holders continues to rise, and liquidity conditions remain relatively stable—providing some underlying support to the market.
BTC IV remains low while Gamma reversal occurs, the options market presents a "near-term bearish, long-term bullish" structure
Odaily News: BTC IV at 38%, ETH IV at 53%. ETH Skew shows divergence, with the mid-to-long-term maintaining +2 to +4, indicating strong institutional bullish consensus. The short-term skew has sharply deteriorated to -8 to -12 due to CPI exceeding expectations and Powell's resignation, leading to a surge in short-term hedging demand. BTC/ETH GEX has shifted from a long Gamma, steady bull market strategy to short Gamma, widening short-term volatility and making it difficult for IV to drop significantly. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact, with the current situation appearing more like an event-driven release of short-term risk rather than a trend reversal. In block trades, 2,181.8 lots (worth $176 million) of BTC 5/15 expiry $82K Calls were traded; 11,026 lots (worth $24.97 million) of ETH June $2,100 Puts were traded.Gate has launched an exclusive incentive plan for options VIPs. During the event, users can participate to share a 100,000 USDT prize pool. The platform supports cross-exchange VIP rate matching. By submitting VIP proof or trading volume records from other exchanges, users can apply for lower rates. Rewards are distributed in tiers based on options trading volume; the more you trade, the higher the reward. Additionally, participating users enjoy exclusive service benefits, including VIP customer support, API technical integration, and daily options strategies and data services, providing professional traders with more competitive trading costs and liquidity support.
Glassnode: BTC Rises to ~$82,000 in Its 20th Week, with On-Chain Activity and Derivatives Risk Appetite Rising in Tandem
Glassnode’s Week 20 BTC Market Report states that BTC rose last week from above $77,000 to below $82,000, with strengthening spot demand and futures activity and sustained buying absorbing pullbacks. The report notes rising Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), spot trading volume, futures open interest, and perpetual swap CVD—indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, price momentum slowed, and long funding rates declined, signaling a marginal cooling of bullish sentiment. In the options market, demand for downside protection decreased and open interest increased, yet the volatility skew widened, reflecting persistently high market uncertainty. On-chain metrics show increases in daily active addresses, entity-adjusted transaction volume, and total fees; profitability indicators improved, and the overall market structure continues to recover.
Glassnode: Bitcoin Market Volatility Returns, Options Volatility and Market Sentiment Recover in Tandem
Glassnode analysis indicates Bitcoin has broken through key resistance and rallied to the $82,000-$83,000 range, ending several weeks of narrow consolidation, with market volatility making a return. Options data shows a rebound of approximately 6 points in short-term 1-week implied volatility, while long-term volatility remains moderate, signaling a rapid recovery in short-term trading demand.In terms of sentiment and positioning, the 25-delta skew has converged toward neutral, indicating diminished demand for downside hedging. Short-term sentiment is leaning bearish, while long-term outlook has turned bullish, reflecting a repricing of upward expectations. On the structural side, implied volatility has surpassed realized volatility, with the VRP turning positive. A "short gamma" concentration zone of approximately $2 billion exists near the $82,000 level, which could amplify price swings. Over the past 24 hours, call option sell orders accounted for 81% of activity, suggesting the market is leaning toward consolidation.