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Market Awaits Fed Decision as BTC Short-Term Options Bearish Sentiment Cools Notably
Odaily reports: Bitcoin rose about 0.8% since midnight (UTC) on Monday to $81,400, after briefly falling below $80,000. Ethereum gained 0.9%, Asian chip stocks led a tech rebound, South Korea's KOSPI rose 6.6%, SK Hynix climbed about 11% on roughly 7x year-over-year profit growth, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%.The Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the market sees about a 92% probability of rates being held steady. Traders will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to gauge whether there is any possibility of a rate hike ahead. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $176 million on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive trading day of inflows.On the derivatives side, crypto futures trading volume rose 7.5% over the past 24 hours to $163.2 billion, open interest increased only 1.3%, and liquidations rose 38% to $183.6 million. Bitcoin rose 2.3% while open interest actually fell 0.1%; Ethereum rose 2.7% with open interest up 1.7%, indicating the price rebound has not yet been accompanied by large-scale new leverage. ZEC open interest grew 14%, higher than its 6.3% price gain over the same period, making it one of the large crypto assets with the most obvious new position building.In the options market, Deribit data shows that Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, indicating that demand for short-term downside protection has weakened somewhat, though the one-month, three-month and six-month tenors remain clearly skewed toward puts. Meanwhile, gold futures open interest fell 10%, while open interest for Tether's gold token XAUT rose 11.6%, showing divergent capital flows. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 Ahead of Fed Decision, Put Option Demand Remains Dominant
Odaily Report: Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Tuesday, down about 0.4% since UTC midnight and touching a low of around $79,700. Ethereum dropped 0.5%, while the DeFi index fell 1.8%, the largest decline among CoinDesk-tracked indices. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI rose 3.1% as Asian tech stocks strengthened, but the crypto market failed to follow the rebound.On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and announce its rate decision on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data shows the market sees about a 90% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, with traders watching whether there is still any chance of a rate hike this year.In the options market, the $72,000 put expiring December 25 was the most-traded Bitcoin option over the past 24 hours, and the 25 Delta put/call skew for Bitcoin options across maturities is positive, indicating the market still has demand for downside protection. (CoinDesk)
Analyst: FOMO Sentiment Is Driving Bullish Option Buying in the S&P 500
Odaily News - Traders are showing strong demand for options betting on further gains in the S&P 500. On Tuesday, call option volume on the benchmark index surpassed 4 million contracts, setting a new all-time high, while put option volume remained in line with the average.Jason Coogan, a trader at Simplex Trading, noted that over the two days through Tuesday, the market experienced a "one-way order flow" situation. Analyst Tanvir Sandhu said: "The options market is reflecting investors' FOMO (fear of missing out on the rally) sentiment. Investors currently appear more concerned about missing the next leg up than about guarding against a market pullback, as evidenced by significant shifts in options skew. Even as the stock market continues to climb, strong demand for call options is still underpinning implied volatility."
BIT: AI Stock Sell-off Triggers BTC Drop Below $60,000, Market Shows "Orderly Decline" Rather Than Panic
According to the weekly market report released by BIT Official, heavy selling in semiconductor and AI stocks on June 23-24 triggered defensive adjustments by institutional capital. BTC fell below $60K on June 24, hitting a low of ~$59,000 (intraday decline of approximately 5%). Approximately $994 million in liquidations occurred during the same period (of which approximately $780 million were long positions). Approximately $1.2 billion in nominal Put positions at the $60K level forced market makers to short, exacerbating the downward trend. As of the weekend, BTC was quoted at ~$59,992, down 6.9% for the week; ETH was quoted at ~$1,578, down 9.3% for the week. In terms of volatility, DVOL only rose slightly (BTC 44.1→45.7, ETH 57.3→59.5), front-end skew tended to stabilize, and convexity returned to normal. The institutional defensive hedging ratio decreased from 29.6% to 19.7%, shifting towards two-way balance, overall showing characteristics of an "orderly decline" rather than panic selling. In terms of ETFs, for the week ending June 26, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.79 billion, marking the second-highest weekly outflow record in history, and have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks; IBIT net assets decreased to approximately $44.4 billion, with average holders having an unrealized loss of approximately 40%. Strategy purchased only 520 BTC this week (approximately $34.9 million), significantly slowing down compared to the previous two weeks. MSTR stock price has fallen below its BTC book value, and the flywheel effect has been affected
Bitcoin Falls Below $65,000: Fed Meeting Looms, Structural Concerns Over Strategy and Leverage Risks Converge
Bitcoin continues to face pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and institutional wait-and-see sentiment, hovering around $64,500, down approximately 2% on the day. The market is awaiting the outcome of the Fed FOMC meeting, which will be chaired by Kevin Warsh for the first time, with widespread expectations that interest rates will remain unchanged in the 3.50%–3.75% range.Analysts point out that the focus of this meeting has shifted from "whether to cut rates" to "policy path and inflation signals." Current US inflation is believed to remain near three-year highs, with energy prices and geopolitical developments keeping the market cautious about the future policy direction.Pressure is also emerging simultaneously on the chain and institutional levels. Structural concerns surrounding Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) continue to escalate, with its preferred stock STRC falling to $91.79 on June 16, over 8% below its $100 par value, seen as a sign of weakening corporate Bitcoin buying power.Although spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $10.1 million on June 16, with BlackRock's IBIT contributing the majority, the capital scale remains significantly lower than in previous periods, indicating limited buying momentum.Market research firms Bitfinex and QCP note that the recent Bitcoin rebound appears more like a "technical recovery driven by exhausted selling pressure" rather than being fueled by new demand. In the derivatives market, rising implied volatility in options and a skew towards put protection suggest traders are pricing in tail risks.In terms of price structure, Bitcoin is considered to be oscillating in the short term within the $60,000 to $68,000 range. If the Fed signals a hawkish stance or institutional buying weakens further, a pullback to the $62,000–$63,000 range is possible.Overall, the current market presents a combination of "macro wait-and-see, marginal institutional weakening, and heightened derivatives defense." The short-term direction still depends on FOMC policy signals and the potential return of ETF and corporate capital flows. (The Block)
Analysis: BTC Unlikely to Hold Above $80,000 in the Short Term, Weak Spot Demand Curbs Breakout Expectations
Odaily Bitcoin fell below $78,000 on Thursday, with growing concerns over the sustainability of any rebound. Data shows that Bitcoin spot ETFs have recorded net outflows for four consecutive trading days, while approximately $584 million in long liquidations earlier this week continues to suppress market risk appetite. Analysts suggest that until on-chain spot demand recovers, BTC will still struggle to firmly hold above $80,000 in the short term.The pressure on the Ethereum market is even more pronounced. The ETH spot ETF saw net outflows of $28.1 million on the day, marking eight consecutive trading days of withdrawals. Since May 7, ETH ETFs have seen cumulative outflows of approximately $504 million over nine trading days, the most severe sustained capital exodus since February this year.In the derivatives market, total crypto futures liquidation volume reached approximately $657 million this Monday, with long liquidations accounting for $584 million, the largest single-day long squeeze event since early February. The current Bitcoin open interest has fallen about 14% from its May 6 peak, but the overall leverage structure has not yet been fully reset.On-chain data also leans bearish. Glassnode indicates that Bitcoin's previous rebound to $82,000 briefly reclaimed the key level of $78,300, the "realized market average," but has since fallen back below it. Historical cycles suggest that BTC typically needs to consolidate in this range for weeks to months to confirm a structural shift between bull and bear markets.Additionally, Glassnode data shows that Bitcoin's spot CVD (Cumulative Volume Delta) has been negative for nine consecutive trading days, marking the longest net selling cycle since 2026. Meanwhile, BTC's hourly spot trading volume has declined about 40% compared to the same period in 2025. Analysis indicates that U.S. investors have been consistently distributing their holdings since Q4 2025, while Asian capital has shifted to accumulation.The options market is also signaling caution. The BTC short-term 25-delta skew has risen from 2.7% to 6.2%, indicating a significant increase in market demand for downside protection. A large gamma short position of approximately $2.5 billion is concentrated around the $75,000 strike price. Should BTC fall back to this area, hedging by market makers could further amplify volatility.In the altcoin market, the sector is largely following BTC, with Bitcoin's dominance remaining around 60%. However, Hyperliquid and Zcash have bucked the trend with double-digit gains, suggesting selective rotation by some capital. (The Block)
Market Awaits Fed Decision as BTC Short-Term Options Bearish Sentiment Cools Notably
Odaily reports: Bitcoin rose about 0.8% since midnight (UTC) on Monday to $81,400, after briefly falling below $80,000. Ethereum gained 0.9%, Asian chip stocks led a tech rebound, South Korea's KOSPI rose 6.6%, SK Hynix climbed about 11% on roughly 7x year-over-year profit growth, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%.The Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the market sees about a 92% probability of rates being held steady. Traders will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to gauge whether there is any possibility of a rate hike ahead. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $176 million on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive trading day of inflows.On the derivatives side, crypto futures trading volume rose 7.5% over the past 24 hours to $163.2 billion, open interest increased only 1.3%, and liquidations rose 38% to $183.6 million. Bitcoin rose 2.3% while open interest actually fell 0.1%; Ethereum rose 2.7% with open interest up 1.7%, indicating the price rebound has not yet been accompanied by large-scale new leverage. ZEC open interest grew 14%, higher than its 6.3% price gain over the same period, making it one of the large crypto assets with the most obvious new position building.In the options market, Deribit data shows that Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, indicating that demand for short-term downside protection has weakened somewhat, though the one-month, three-month and six-month tenors remain clearly skewed toward puts. Meanwhile, gold futures open interest fell 10%, while open interest for Tether's gold token XAUT rose 11.6%, showing divergent capital flows. (CoinDesk)
BIT: AI Stock Sell-off Triggers BTC Drop Below $60,000, Market Shows "Orderly Decline" Rather Than Panic
According to the weekly market report released by BIT Official, heavy selling in semiconductor and AI stocks on June 23-24 triggered defensive adjustments by institutional capital. BTC fell below $60K on June 24, hitting a low of ~$59,000 (intraday decline of approximately 5%). Approximately $994 million in liquidations occurred during the same period (of which approximately $780 million were long positions). Approximately $1.2 billion in nominal Put positions at the $60K level forced market makers to short, exacerbating the downward trend. As of the weekend, BTC was quoted at ~$59,992, down 6.9% for the week; ETH was quoted at ~$1,578, down 9.3% for the week. In terms of volatility, DVOL only rose slightly (BTC 44.1→45.7, ETH 57.3→59.5), front-end skew tended to stabilize, and convexity returned to normal. The institutional defensive hedging ratio decreased from 29.6% to 19.7%, shifting towards two-way balance, overall showing characteristics of an "orderly decline" rather than panic selling. In terms of ETFs, for the week ending June 26, US spot BTC ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $1.79 billion, marking the second-highest weekly outflow record in history, and have seen net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks; IBIT net assets decreased to approximately $44.4 billion, with average holders having an unrealized loss of approximately 40%. Strategy purchased only 520 BTC this week (approximately $34.9 million), significantly slowing down compared to the previous two weeks. MSTR stock price has fallen below its BTC book value, and the flywheel effect has been affected
BTC IV remains low while Gamma reversal occurs, the options market presents a "near-term bearish, long-term bullish" structure
Odaily News: BTC IV at 38%, ETH IV at 53%. ETH Skew shows divergence, with the mid-to-long-term maintaining +2 to +4, indicating strong institutional bullish consensus. The short-term skew has sharply deteriorated to -8 to -12 due to CPI exceeding expectations and Powell's resignation, leading to a surge in short-term hedging demand. BTC/ETH GEX has shifted from a long Gamma, steady bull market strategy to short Gamma, widening short-term volatility and making it difficult for IV to drop significantly. The medium-term bullish structure remains intact, with the current situation appearing more like an event-driven release of short-term risk rather than a trend reversal. In block trades, 2,181.8 lots (worth $176 million) of BTC 5/15 expiry $82K Calls were traded; 11,026 lots (worth $24.97 million) of ETH June $2,100 Puts were traded.Gate has launched an exclusive incentive plan for options VIPs. During the event, users can participate to share a 100,000 USDT prize pool. The platform supports cross-exchange VIP rate matching. By submitting VIP proof or trading volume records from other exchanges, users can apply for lower rates. Rewards are distributed in tiers based on options trading volume; the more you trade, the higher the reward. Additionally, participating users enjoy exclusive service benefits, including VIP customer support, API technical integration, and daily options strategies and data services, providing professional traders with more competitive trading costs and liquidity support.
Glassnode: BTC Rises to ~$82,000 in Its 20th Week, with On-Chain Activity and Derivatives Risk Appetite Rising in Tandem
Glassnode’s Week 20 BTC Market Report states that BTC rose last week from above $77,000 to below $82,000, with strengthening spot demand and futures activity and sustained buying absorbing pullbacks. The report notes rising Spot Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), spot trading volume, futures open interest, and perpetual swap CVD—indicating a rebound in market risk appetite. However, price momentum slowed, and long funding rates declined, signaling a marginal cooling of bullish sentiment. In the options market, demand for downside protection decreased and open interest increased, yet the volatility skew widened, reflecting persistently high market uncertainty. On-chain metrics show increases in daily active addresses, entity-adjusted transaction volume, and total fees; profitability indicators improved, and the overall market structure continues to recover.
Related news
Market Awaits Fed Decision as BTC Short-Term Options Bearish Sentiment Cools Notably
Odaily reports: Bitcoin rose about 0.8% since midnight (UTC) on Monday to $81,400, after briefly falling below $80,000. Ethereum gained 0.9%, Asian chip stocks led a tech rebound, South Korea's KOSPI rose 6.6%, SK Hynix climbed about 11% on roughly 7x year-over-year profit growth, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.5%.The Federal Reserve is about to announce its rate decision, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the market sees about a 92% probability of rates being held steady. Traders will focus on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference to gauge whether there is any possibility of a rate hike ahead. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $176 million on Tuesday, marking a second consecutive trading day of inflows.On the derivatives side, crypto futures trading volume rose 7.5% over the past 24 hours to $163.2 billion, open interest increased only 1.3%, and liquidations rose 38% to $183.6 million. Bitcoin rose 2.3% while open interest actually fell 0.1%; Ethereum rose 2.7% with open interest up 1.7%, indicating the price rebound has not yet been accompanied by large-scale new leverage. ZEC open interest grew 14%, higher than its 6.3% price gain over the same period, making it one of the large crypto assets with the most obvious new position building.In the options market, Deribit data shows that Bitcoin's one-week put/call skew has dropped from nearly 10% a week ago to less than 1%, indicating that demand for short-term downside protection has weakened somewhat, though the one-month, three-month and six-month tenors remain clearly skewed toward puts. Meanwhile, gold futures open interest fell 10%, while open interest for Tether's gold token XAUT rose 11.6%, showing divergent capital flows. (CoinDesk)
Bitcoin Falls Below $80,000 Ahead of Fed Decision, Put Option Demand Remains Dominant
Odaily Report: Bitcoin fell below $80,000 on Tuesday, down about 0.4% since UTC midnight and touching a low of around $79,700. Ethereum dropped 0.5%, while the DeFi index fell 1.8%, the largest decline among CoinDesk-tracked indices. Meanwhile, South Korea's KOSPI rose 3.1% as Asian tech stocks strengthened, but the crypto market failed to follow the rebound.On the macro front, the Federal Reserve will begin its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday and announce its rate decision on Wednesday. CME FedWatch data shows the market sees about a 90% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged, with traders watching whether there is still any chance of a rate hike this year.In the options market, the $72,000 put expiring December 25 was the most-traded Bitcoin option over the past 24 hours, and the 25 Delta put/call skew for Bitcoin options across maturities is positive, indicating the market still has demand for downside protection. (CoinDesk)
10x Research: Bitcoin Options Prices at Five-Year Lows, Investors Remain Bullish While Actively Hedging Risk
Odaily News: 10x Research has stated that Bitcoin options prices have dropped to five-year lows, with near-month implied volatility at 33.5%, more than 4 percentage points below realized volatility, indicating that options are relatively cheaply priced.Over the past week, Bitcoin options skew has declined by nearly 3 percentage points, with traders concentrated in buying October-expiry put options at strike prices of $78,000 and $80,000, with single block trades reaching as high as $204 million. 10x Research believes this indicates that investors on the whole still hold long positions while hedging downside risk through options, rather than fully turning bearish.By contrast, the Ethereum options market is showing different signals. Its largest corporate buyer has indicated it will stop buying within weeks, options trading is dominated by call sellers, and implied volatility is higher than realized volatility.
Glassnode: BTC options open interest rebounds to nearly 550K BTC, market sentiment turns positive
According to Odaily, Glassnode data shows that as BTC rebounds toward $80,000, options market positioning has clearly shifted to a bullish stance. BTC options open interest has climbed back to nearly 550,000 BTC, with derivatives market participation rising again; the DVOL volatility index has bounced to around 41, though still below the previous high-volatility range of 50–60. Glassnode notes that the 25 Delta Skew across all tenors has narrowed significantly, with short-term skew turning negative, indicating reduced demand for downside protection and positioning leaning more balanced or bullish. BTC is currently in a dense Gamma zone between approximately $75,000 and $80,000, with recent flows concentrated at the $72,500 and $79,250 strike prices, where notable call buying has been observed at both levels, while put demand remains relatively limited.
IBIT call option volume hit a record 1.58 million contracts, with the 3-day call skew rising 0.05, marking the largest increase since January 2025
Odaily News: Solid Intel stated on the X platform that IBIT call option volume reached a record 1.58 million contracts, with the 3-day call skew rising 0.05, the largest increase since January 2025.
Bitcoin Options Market Sentiment Improves: Bullish Positions Dominate, but Long-Term Hedging Demand Remains
Odaily News Glassnode posted on X that the Bitcoin options market has recently released a moderately positive signal, with data showing that market volatility expectations are recovering, short-term panic is easing, and bullish options positions continue to dominate.Data shows that BTC options implied volatility (IV) is currently about 10% higher than realized volatility (RV), ending the previous weeks-long period where realized volatility consistently exceeded implied volatility. This indicates that the market has begun to pay a premium for future uncertainty again. However, current volatility levels have not yet reached an extreme tension state.In terms of options skew, hedging demand for short-term options has clearly declined, with the 1-week 25-delta skew dropping to approximately 7%. However, skew for longer-dated options remains in the 10%-12% range, suggesting investors are still protecting against medium-to-long-term downside risks.Regarding positioning, Bitcoin options open interest remains distinctly skewed toward call options. Currently, the open interest value of call options stands at approximately $15 billion, higher than put options at roughly $10 billion. After adjusting for recent expirations, bullish positioning still maintains an advantage.In terms of capital flows, options trading is mainly concentrated in the $61,000 to $67,000 range, with buying of $65,000 call options being relatively active, accompanied by put option selling, indicating that short-term market trading sentiment is improving.The analysis says the current BTC options market reflects a pattern of "cautious optimism": short-term panic is receding, bullish allocation still dominates, but long-term hedging demand persists, and investors have not fully abandoned risk protection.