News linked to both this project and an event.
White Hair Stock Oracle Serenity posted on X platform: "The divergence between fundamental demand and valuations has now reached an extreme level. On one hand, procurement from Super Micro Computer (SMCI) to SpaceX (SPCX) is accelerating; on the other hand, stock prices from Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) to data center hosting providers are collapsing. I believe that after the earnings season, October 2026 will be seen as another (buy-the-dip) opportunity similar to the 'DeepSeek shock' or the 'April tariff panic.'
Odaily reports: White Hair Stock Oracle Serenity stated that the memory chip industry is gaining unprecedented long-term demand visibility, with major cloud service providers such as Google even seeking to sign long-term supply agreements extending to 2035. However, the market remains affected by concerns over the sustainability of AI infrastructure investment and financing risks.Serenity also cited Dell CEO Michael Dell's view that the memory chip supply shortage may last about 4 years, as the construction cycle for new wafer fabs is lengthy, and the relevant capacity is expected to be released only between 2029 and 2030. Dell expects that the supply-demand imbalance in memory chips may further deteriorate in 2027.
Odaily reports: “White-Haired Stock Oracle” Serenity posted that Musk’s recent abrupt interactions with multiple finance-sector KOLs have amplified market concerns about CoreWeave (CRWV) financing risks and speculative behavior among AI investors. Although Musk is highly visionary, from the outside, continuously magnifying the problems facing competitors and accusing Samsung and SK Hynix of overpricing may further increase the financing difficulty of those parties. These remarks may benefit Tesla and SpaceX in the long run, but the market may also overlook the specific context of some of these issues as a result.Serenity added that it had previously raised concerns multiple times about CoreWeave’s debt interest burden and the risk of rising rates, and criticized the market for lacking detailed analysis of changes in high-end memory chip supply and Broadcom CEO’s remarks about OpenAI’s annualized recurring revenue (ARR). It also suggested that when Musk criticizes competitors, he should also consider the risks he himself faces.
White-Haired Stock Oracle Serenity posted on X stating that although AI-related stocks have recently been affected by the macroeconomic environment, rate hike expectations, and concerns over capex sustainability, the fundamentals of key supply chain segments such as memory chips and optical communications remain strong, and the market's pricing of different companies is clearly diverging.He noted that demand visibility for memory manufacturers such as Micron, Samsung, and SK Hynix has extended to 2030-2031, and long-term procurement agreements and price floor mechanisms are expected to support future profitability. On the optical communications side, Lumentum's capacity is essentially sold out through 2029, and with the large-scale adoption of CPO/NPO technology, a supercycle in optical communications may arrive in 2027-2028, with capacity-expanding companies such as AAOI and SIVE worth watching.As for capital-intensive capex companies such as IREN, he stated that the market does not seem to favor companies that require continuous heavy investment while also constantly raising funds. In any case, the market currently appears to have entered a more risk-averse environment, with capital shifting toward large-cap companies in search of safety, such as CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palantir (PLTR).In addition, the White-Haired Stock Oracle believes that even if AI capex slows, it does not mean that all supply chain companies will come under pressure simultaneously. The current market tends to trade AI-related stocks as a whole, which may lead to some key supply chain companies being undervalued. Rather than simply chasing the AI concept, companies with higher demand visibility, imminent profitability inflection points, and expected declines in forward valuations may deliver better performance over the medium term.
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X platform, stating that traditional value investing appears to have entered a "hibernation period." In the past, investors would look for companies with P/E ratios of 10 to 12 times, slow growth but able to compound value through cash flow buybacks and dividends. Now the market has even seen companies with a P/E ratio of just 1.8 times and revenue growing 605.24% year-over-year, and the main thing investors need to discuss is how long the growth can last. In addition, Sumitomo of Japan has a P/E ratio of only 16.2 times, but it has a large number of long-term agreements with hyperscale cloud service providers in its AI-related businesses, from optical fiber to lasers.Serenity believes that AI has created a greater valuation mispricing in the medium term, gradually shifting "value investing" toward high-growth "deep value" companies.
Odaily News "White-haired Stock God" Serenity posted on X, expressing optimism about storage chip maker Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (ESMT, 3006) over the coming months, suggesting its trajectory could mirror the strong rally seen in SanDisk (SNDK).Serenity noted that a single DDR2 memory chip currently costs around $0.96. If the ASP (average selling price) triples, the cost per chip would increase by roughly $2. While this cost increase remains relatively limited for end products, sustained price hikes in memory products could have a significant impact on ESMT's own profitability. Additionally, SLC NAND is expected to see ASP increases of 120% to 170% in the second half of the year, with NOR Flash and other products also facing pricing upside expectations.Serenity stated that based on July performance, ESMT's current monthly net profit stands at approximately $111 million, with a market cap of around $2.8 billion, and believes there remains substantial room for valuation re-rating. Serenity noted that ESMT's current situation reminds them of early-stage SanDisk, but this opportunity is primarily concentrated in the legacy and specialty memory market.
“白毛股神”Serenity 发文质疑 Sivers Photonics（SIVE）发展策略，表示其目前仍将大量精力放在瑞典本土市场的沟通和私募融资上，而不是美国市场，这一策略“令人难以理解”。Serenity 认为，瑞典投资者在交流中更关注“如何止血”“为何不能披露私人客户”“为何专注于收发器”等问题，导致约三分之一的电话会议时间都在解释业务管线和措辞，而非讨论未来增长空间。
"White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that Unitree (688836) surged significantly after its listing, providing an important valuation benchmark for humanoid robot companies in the public market. As a reference, Agility Robotics, backed by NVIDIA, Amazon, and others, plans to go public via Churchill Capital Corp XI (CCXI), with a pre-money valuation of approximately $2.5 billion. Tesla's market cap has already exceeded $1 trillion, but the Optimus humanoid robot business is only a part of this sprawling company.Serenity noted that Unitree's performance demonstrates that public market demand for "pure-play humanoid robot targets" is far higher than many had previously anticipated.
Odaily News "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity shared insights on the AI industry chain on the X platform, noting that AI infrastructure demand is driving multiple sectors—including storage, advanced packaging, computing power financing, optical communications, power supply, and electronic components—into a long-term expansion cycle. The AI supply chain remains in a phase of rapid growth.In the storage sector, Serenity cited UBS forecasts indicating that traditional DRAM manufacturers (such as Micron) could see gross margins reach an unprecedented 95% by 2027, potentially even surpassing the gross margin levels of HBM products. Additionally, SanDisk's long-term agreements already cover approximately two-thirds of its 2028 production capacity, with minimum contracted revenue reaching $93 billion. Given its current market cap of around $239 billion, this suggests its future revenue targets could persist for years, making it difficult to simply classify the company as a traditional cyclical stock.On the cloud computing infrastructure front, CoreWeave has signed agreements to use Nvidia A100 GPUs through 2029. This is a positive development for emerging cloud computing companies such as Nebius and Iren, and it also weakens some investors' bearish thesis centered on the rapid depreciation of older GPUs.AI model companies are also continuing to grow at a pace that exceeds expectations. Frontier AI labs are still maintaining extremely rapid growth rates, and a slowdown in growth would actually be a cause for concern. The market projects that Anthropic's 2028 revenue could reach $190 billion to $200 billion.However, advanced packaging and semiconductor infrastructure remain core bottlenecks. The head of advanced packaging at TSMC has stated that in the coming years, the industry may face not only memory shortages but also tight supply of ABF substrates.Serenity concluded that the AI infrastructure supply chain is continuously expanding. From GPUs, storage, and advanced packaging to power, optical communications, and electronic components, every segment is showing a long-term demand growth trend. The AI supply chain is still in a high-speed development stage.
"White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on X, stating that Unitree Technology's IPO has seen over 8,000x oversubscription from retail investors, reflecting an "extremely huge" market demand for pure humanoid robot companies. Serenity currently holds a bullish view on investment opportunities related to the U.S. humanoid robot company Agility Robotics, a project backed by SoftBank, NVIDIA ($NVDA), Amazon ($AMZN), Foxconn, and others, with a pre-money valuation of approximately $2.5 billion.Serenity stated that Unitree Technology's perpetual contract market valuation before its IPO already indicated relatively high expectations. If the company's market cap exceeds $30 billion after listing, it could further boost market attention on leading U.S. humanoid robot companies in the next one to two weeks. Regardless of the final outcome, the market demand demonstrated by Unitree's IPO is "truly astonishing," and the humanoid robot sector is emerging as a new hotspot for global capital attention.
"White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity has summarized the capital expenditure guidance from the latest earnings reports of Amazon, Meta, Google, and Microsoft, stating that the four major tech giants are expected to allocate a combined capital expenditure of approximately $720 billion to $745 billion in 2026, exceeding the market's previous expectation of $695 billion to $725 billion. The market has recently experienced significant deleveraging, as well as position liquidations among retail and institutional investors due to margin pressures. While short-term adjustments may persist, it is difficult to maintain a bearish stance on upstream semiconductor companies and next-generation cloud computing infrastructure in the medium to long term.Serenity also proposed the "bottleneck investment" thesis, arguing that when trillions of dollars in capital flow into supply chain segments previously viewed as low-value commodities—such as memory chips and even enterprises in the energy infrastructure sector—these companies may undergo a valuation reshaping. Many currently popular AI supply chain companies were previously overlooked by the market during the telecommunications cycle. However, as AI infrastructure construction enters an acceleration phase and capital expenditure flows into their balance sheets, these enterprises may experience a repricing.
"White-Haired Stock God" Serenity stated that today, Micron ($MU) announced the signing of a long-term memory supply agreement with Qualcomm ($QCOM). However, the market reaction was somewhat unexpected, with Micron's stock price subsequently falling by 5.37%.Serenity believes that against the backdrop of the AI industry chain continuously signing long-term supply agreements to lock in future demand, current memory and AI-related stocks themselves have not shown any significant signs of fundamental deterioration.He noted that the recent sector adjustment is more likely due to a chain reaction triggered by market deleveraging and margin pressure, rather than a reversal in AI demand or storage industry trends.Serenity pointed out that as AI infrastructure construction continues to advance, companies across the industry chain are strengthening supply security through long-term agreements. Short-term market volatility may more reflect adjustments in capital flows and valuations, rather than a shift in the long-term growth logic.
"White Hair Stock God" Serenity published an analysis stating that if Sivers obtains approximately 10% of wafer capacity allocation from foundry Win Semi through an asset-light model, under the assumptions of 65% yield and an ASP of $50 to $75, the annual revenue from its optical array products could reach $341 million to $512 million. Based on management’s gross margin target of 50% to 60%+, the corresponding annual gross profit would be approximately $205 million to $307 million.At Sivers' current market cap of around $1.1 billion, the market cap-to-gross profit multiple in this scenario would be only about 3.6x to 5.4x. If the capacity allocation increases to 15%, annual gross profit could rise to between $307 million and $461 million, correspondingly reducing the valuation multiple to 2.4x to 3.6x.Serenity pointed out that Sivers' CEO has previously confirmed the company is cooperating with more wafer fabs to expand capacity, and since 2024, the scope of its supply chain certifications has been continuously expanding. With the accelerated development of the co-packaged optics (CPO) market, future revenue guidance and capacity plans may be further revised upward.On the demand side, supply of continuous wave (CW) lasers remains tight. Lumentum’s financial report indicates the company has begun purchasing CW lasers from the open market to fulfill EML orders. TrendForce data shows that AMD is securing related capacity through long-term agreements. Serenity believes that as Sivers enters mass production with partners such as GlobalFoundries, Jabil, Ayar Labs, POET, and O-Net, any newly added and certified independent capacity could be quickly absorbed by the market.Additionally, a recent report from Morgan Stanley has listed Sivers, with a market cap of approximately $1.1 billion, as one of the three core players in the CPO laser field, alongside Coherent and Lumentum, which each have market caps exceeding $55 billion. Serenity believes that beyond its existing business, Sivers—having listed on Nasdaq—may also expand its TAM through future M&A, replicating the growth path of Lumentum's acquisition of Cloud Light to enter the complete optical module and optical engine market.
Serenity, known as the "White-Haired Stock Guru," posted on X platform stating that Blue Origin is seeking to raise $10 billion in funding, with a company valuation target of approximately $130 billion. If this fundraising is completed at this valuation, it will provide a new valuation anchor for the commercial aerospace industry, potentially benefiting other aerospace-related companies including RKLB and ASTS. If leading companies like SpaceX and Blue Origin can achieve such high market valuations, investors may reassess the long-term value of companies across the entire space economy industry chain.
Serenity, known as the "White-Haired Stock God," stated that Raymond James Financial has initiated coverage of SPCX with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target of $800, a significant increase from the previous $160.In response, Serenity indicated that this price target implies a valuation of $10 trillion for SpaceX, and remarked that he is "speechless" about it, jokingly adding that the so-called "institutional research report" aimed at retail investors essentially speaks for itself in terms of its content.
: "White-Haired Stock God" Serenity posted on platform X, stating that based on the capital flow direction in China's private VC market, institutions are currently pouring into fields related to Physical AI and World Models on a large scale.Data shows the approximate capital distribution as follows: Large Models/LLMs at about $23.56 billion, AI Infrastructure and Technology Layer at about $15.74 billion, Embodied Intelligence/Physical AI at about $13.36 billion, AIGC Applications at about $8.79 billion, and Autonomous Driving plus other top 20 sub-sectors totaling about $3.82 billion (note: metrics may not be directly comparable).Serenity pointed out that early-stage pure foundational model financing is largely closed, with capital more concentrated in existing leading companies and the World Model direction. He expects this trend to also appear in the US, potentially concentrating further towards leading companies like Anthropic and OpenAI. Regarding AIGC applications, Serenity believes this track's commercialization is already relatively mature, but an absolute winner has yet to emerge, exhibiting a fragmented competitive landscape in both China and the US markets.Overall, Serenity concluded that current AI investments continue to flow into infrastructure and the semiconductor supply chain. Meanwhile, capital is rapidly rotating towards Physical AI and Embodied Intelligence, but the World Model track still lacks direct investment targets.
Serenity has released an exclusive analysis of the AI ASIC market on the X platform, presenting the core thesis that "NVIDIA is the kingmaker of the ASIC market." It proposes a set of industry reasoning logic, arguing that NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang is not pleased with Broadcom monopolizing the custom ASIC track. With implicit support from the NVIDIA ecosystem, companies such as Marvell, MediaTek, AlChip, and GUC are steadily capturing market share originally held by Broadcom, taking on more custom chip projects for hyperscale cloud vendors. This landscape is comparable to the rise of emerging cloud service providers last year, serving as an important means for NVIDIA to hedge against the moat created by leading cloud vendors developing their own ASICs.Serenity suggests this could represent a two-year trading opportunity but does not constitute investment advice. It also predicts that after 2030, major companies like Google will internalize a significant amount of chip design work. It added that NVIDIA has the ability to reshape the valuation of the industry chain, and there have already been market expectations that Marvell could potentially reach a trillion-dollar market cap.
"The White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X platform, stating that Sivers Semiconductors (SIVE) has completed a new round of capital increase financing worth 700 million Swedish kronor. The round was "multiple times oversubscribed" and was slightly upsized from the original target. Funds from this round will primarily be used to expand production capacity for InP (Indium Phosphide) lasers and optical amplifiers, driving the company's capacity ramp-up under a fab-light model.Serenity's analysis indicates that this financing suggests SIVE may have reached a critical inflection point for scaled development. The issue price was 57 SEK per share, while the current stock price is approximately 63 SEK, close to the market price, which could help form price support. With the entry of institutional funds, this not only reduces SIVE's balance sheet risk but also provides financial support for its transition to the High-Volume Manufacturing (HVM) stage.
“New Stock God” Serenity posted on platform X, expressing curiosity about how investors will feel if they miss the AI super cycle.Serenity believes that photonics, memory storage, and Neocloud providers represented by Nebius (NBIS) are all poised to benefit from the development opportunities of the AI super cycle. Meanwhile, Serenity quipped that some investors are still holding IREN, which has “endless $6 billion ATM financing capabilities,” while overlooking potential opportunities within the AI industry chain.
Odaily, "White-Haired Stock Guru" Serenity posted on X, reviewing his past experiences where his investment views faced skepticism. He stated that many original investment ideas initially face strong opposition, but ultimately the market becomes the standard for judging right and wrong. He has faced significant criticism for being bullish on several companies, for example:$AXTI: Early on, it was questioned as a "scam company," and related discussions even led to a ban from Reddit's WSB forum. However, it later received coverage from Reuters, and the performance of the Indium Phosphide (InP) substrate industry company, along with institutional investor validation, confirmed its logic.$RPI: Initially labeled a "meme stock" by the market, analysts believed it lacked fundamentals. However, earnings reports showed the company's future revenue growth expectation reached 58%, and it was subsequently re-evaluated as a high-growth AI hardware company.$SIVE: Once considered a "meme stock" by numerous investors, it later gained institutional buying support, including attention from Fidelity Research, JPMorgan Chase, and others, and announced partnerships with companies like Jabil and GlobalFoundries.Serenity stated, "The market will ultimately decide what is right or wrong, not the angry comments or posts on X (formerly Twitter)." He added that as each investment thesis gets validated one by one, the eventual market performance overshadows the early noise. He also listed several other cases that were initially doubted but later gained market recognition, including:$AAOI: Near $30, management was questioned as "untrustworthy";$LITE: At $300, the photonics industry was considered to be in a bubble;$RKLB: At $20, it was dismissed as just a low-revenue launch company;$HOOD: At $20, it faced negative sentiment due to the GameStop trading restriction incident;$IQE: Considered just a small UK company lacking partnerships in the photonics field;$SOI: Analysts at a European bank considered its valuation too high;$NBIS: Questioned for having no competitive moat;$INTC: The market thought it couldn't compete with TSMC;$MRVL: The market feared its ASIC market share would be taken by Broadcom;$AEHR: The market misinterpreted its earnings report, thinking the company lacked revenue;$EWY: The market believed the South Korean semiconductor cycle was in a bubble.