News linked to both this project and an event.
Sentiment regarding bets on the formal enactment of the CLARITY Act in 2026 has turned bearish, with the probability of the bill being passed within the year falling to a historic low. The market's peak expectation for the bill at the beginning of the year once reached 82%, but as negotiations have hit multiple deadlocks, the probability has continued to decline. The core disagreements hindering the bill's progress include a standoff over ethics clauses, opposition from banking lobbying groups regarding provisions related to stablecoin interest payments, as well as a tight congressional schedule and the approaching midterm elections, which have compressed the window for deliberation and voting. Although major industry players generally support this comprehensive digital asset regulatory bill, traders believe that the multiple disagreements cannot be resolved in the short term, and the bill will likely be unable to complete the full legislative process and take effect within 2026.
Odaily, July 5th - The cryptocurrency market continued its stabilization trend, with Bitcoin rising nearly 7% in the week ending July 5th, recording its strongest weekly performance since March. This rally was primarily fueled by declining inflation expectations. The breakeven inflation rate, a measure of market inflation expectations, has dropped notably recently. The two-year indicator has fallen below 2%, approaching the Federal Reserve's inflation target level, while long-term inflation expectations have also weakened. Meanwhile, WTI crude oil prices have fallen in tandem with inflation expectations, returning to levels close to those seen before the geopolitical conflicts in February, prompting the market to reassess inflation pressures, interest rate cut expectations, and the dollar's trajectory.Some analysts suggest that if the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakens, it could further lower resistance for Bitcoin’s upward movement, as the two typically exhibit a negative correlation. However, other viewpoints caution that services inflation remains sticky, and falling oil prices do not necessarily imply a reversal of the overall inflation trend. Monetary policy may continue to maintain a "higher for longer" stance.The next key milestone for the market is the US June CPI data due on July 14th, which could serve as a crucial catalyst for determining the inflation path and the direction of risk assets. (CoinDesk)
following Micron Technology's optimistic earnings report and Qualcomm's positive performance outlook, sentiment in the technology sector has notably warmed, driving a rebound in market risk appetite and alleviating earlier concerns over a slowdown in AI-related trading. Driven by this, Bitcoin recovered after hitting a 20-month low, rebounding 0.3% to $61,106, after briefly dipping to $59,062 during the session. Market focus now shifts to the upcoming U.S. PCE inflation data, which could influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's future interest rate policy and further sway the performance of risk assets.
According to the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey data, the proportion of bearish investors has surged to 47.7% over the past week, approaching the year's high of 52% (March 18), well above the historical average of 31%.The AAII Sentiment Survey gauges the opinions of individual investors by asking them their views on market direction over the next six months and has been conducted continuously since 1987.
According to JIN10, U.S. President Trump criticized Tehran’s leadership for lacking unity, which he said is hindering agreement on ending the nine-week conflict that has triggered a global energy crisis. He stated that “Iran’s requests are ones I cannot accept,” though some traders interpreted this as a negotiating tactic rather than an abandonment of peace efforts. Investors will be watching for a new batch of U.S. corporate earnings reports and U.S. employment data. Below are the key market focus points for the coming week: Tuesday, 00:50: John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a permanent voting member of the FOMC, delivers a speech; Tuesday, 22:00: U.S. April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and U.S. March JOLTS Job Openings; Wednesday, 20:15: U.S. April ADP Employment Change; Wednesday, 21:30: Alberto Musalem, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and an FOMC voter in 2028, speaks on the economic outlook and monetary policy; Thursday, 01:00: Austan Goolsbee, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago and an FOMC voter in 2027, participates in a panel discussion at a conference; Thursday, 19:30: U.S. April Challenger Job Cuts; Friday, 02:05: Loretta Mester, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland and an FOMC voter in 2026, delivers a speech; Friday, 03:30: John Williams, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and a permanent voting member of the FOMC, delivers a speech; Friday, 22:00: U.S. May one-year inflation expectation (preliminary), U.S. May University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (preliminary), and U.S. March wholesale sales (month-on-month). Forecasters expect the April nonfarm payrolls report—due next Friday—to show solid job growth.