News linked to both this project and an event.
The PPP Prediction Market tool monitors that Polymarket has listed a new event: "Will the US government revoke public access to another major AI model?" The current probability is reported at 33%.The settlement rules state: If the US federal government, by the end of 2026, passes relevant legislation, issues an executive order, implements export controls, or takes any other action that substantially restricts US public access to a major AI model, the market outcome will be "Yes." Otherwise, the outcome will be "No." A "qualifying action" refers to a formal measure taken by the US government, the effect of which is equivalent to completely prohibiting the public from accessing a specific AI model within the United States. Furthermore, the settlement rules emphasize that regardless of the action's true purpose or nominal goal; if the action effectively results in the public being unable to access the model within the US—for example, prohibiting the model from being provided to foreign citizens or governments, as long as the general public cannot access the model through conventional channels within the US—it meets the qualification requirements. Merely excluding access to the model from a single channel is insufficient. Removals of public access that are not caused by any formal action of the US government are not eligible."Mainstream AI model" refers to the flagship, general-purpose large language model or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Models designed for specific tasks, or those that are outdated, used solely for research or preview purposes, do not meet this criterion.The action can target a single model or a group of models, as long as at least one major AI model becomes inaccessible to the public within the US as a result. A temporary suspension of public access to a model meets this condition. However, if an action has been implemented or a related resolution has been issued, but the public can still access the model before the resolution takes effect, that action does not meet the condition.The information sources for this market are official announcements and information from the US government and the relevant AI companies. However, reliable media reports may also be referenced to form a consensus.The Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before prices are set.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that Polymarket's probability of "GPT-5.6 to be released to the public on July 7" has risen to 64%, up 26% in 24 hours.The rules state that a model explicitly named "GPT-5.6," or a model officially recognized as the direct successor to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.), will meet the settlement conditions. Task-specific models like GPT-Codex and Transcribe, cost-optimized versions such as Nano and Mini, and the o-series reasoning models are all included in this market. However, GPT-6 or other next-generation flagship models are not counted.Additionally, qualified models must be open to the public, including public beta or open waitlists; closed testing or private access only will not meet the requirements. The final settlement will primarily be based on OpenAI's official announcements and public information on its official website, and will be verified with mainstream media reports.On June 27, OpenAI launched the next-generation GPT-5.6 series of models, currently offering a limited preview to a select group of partners.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
PPP Prediction Market Tool monitoring shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 being restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 97%, up 71% in 24 hours.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to Claude Fable 5 just days after its release on June 9.The latest update indicates that Anthropic has received notification that the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. Access rights will begin to be restored.Odaily Seer Channel continues to focus on prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
The PPP prediction market tool monitors that in the Polymarket "2026 World Cup Round of 32 Netherlands vs. Morocco" prediction event, a smart money address (0x0c787cc2962ee6464414da592b892c3886e077f1) with total profits exceeding $229,000 purchased $116,000 on the Netherlands defeating Morocco. The average entry price was 43¢, with 274,653.6 shares bought, currently showing an unrealized loss of $1,373.The Round of 32 match between the uncrowned kings of the Netherlands and Africa Cup of Nations champions Morocco will kick off on June 30 at 9:00 AM Beijing time. Morocco's current FIFA ranking has just risen to 6th, one spot ahead of the Netherlands. In this World Cup, the Netherlands is known as the "strong offense, weak defense Tulips," while Morocco is the "upgraded Atlas Lions," making this match full of suspense.The Odaily Seer channel continues to focus on the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
The Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event titled “What clauses will the US-Iran diplomatic agreement contain before December 31, 2026.”Iran Reconstruction Funding: Whether a non-Iranian-led mechanism for Iran's reconstruction or economic development funding will be established;Dilution of Iran's Uranium: Whether Iran will be required to dilute or downgrade enriched uranium under its control;Uranium Enrichment % Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment purity lasting more than one year will be set;≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap: Whether a cap on uranium enrichment at low or below purity levels lasting more than one year will be set;Enriched Uranium Surrender: Whether Iran will be required to transfer part or all of its enriched uranium to non-Iranian entities;1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium: Whether a comprehensive suspension of uranium enrichment activities lasting more than one year will be implemented.According to the settlement rules, this event will be based on the official text of the formal written diplomatic document ultimately signed or formally approved by both sides. Currently, US-Iran negotiations are undergoing intensive communication around ceasefire lines, asset unfreezing, and the rules of passage through the Strait of Hormuz. The launch of this series of prediction events provides the financial market with an intuitive and detailed indicator for observing the long-term trajectory of geopolitical risks.The Odaily Seer Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a prediction event for the “Number of Fed Rate Hikes in 2026.”From the perspective of the interest rate path, the market is currently pricing in two distinctly different macro narratives. One view holds that the U.S. economy will enter a growth slowdown cycle in 2026, with the Fed maintaining a wait-and-see stance or even resuming rate cuts. The other view argues that if inflation reemerges or long-term inflation expectations become unanchored, the Fed could be forced to restart its rate hiking cycle. Therefore, the high probability attached to “3 to 4 rate hikes” essentially reflects the market’s reassessment of inflation stickiness and economic resilience over the next year, rather than a consensus on a single path.Bank of America has already shifted to a more hawkish interest rate path forecast. BofA Global Research now expects the Fed to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December of 2026, totaling 75 basis points for the year, pushing the federal funds rate target range to 4.25%–4.50%. This represents a significant upward revision from its previous outlook of “rates unchanged for the year,” primarily based on the still-resilient U.S. labor market, the bumpy progress of disinflation, and the possibility that the Fed’s policy reaction function under new Chair Kevin Warsh could be more hawkish. In comparison, Deutsche Bank also expects the Fed to start hiking in September, but with a cumulative annual increase of 50 basis points, indicating that major Wall Street institutions are reassessing the upside risks to U.S. interest rates in 2026.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket "Arcium FDV Above $300M One Day After Launch" probability has risen to 93%, up 58% in 24 hours.According to the rules, if the fully diluted valuation of Arcium's officially issued token exceeds the target value at 4:00 PM Eastern Time on the day after its launch, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No."FDV is calculated as the total token supply multiplied by the token price. Only tokens officially issued by Arcium that are publicly tradable are valid. Stablecoins, Meme coins, liquid staking tokens (LSTs), and synthetic assets are excluded from the calculation. If Arcium has not issued a token by 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the event will be settled as "No."Previous news: Binance Futures will list the ARXUSDT perpetual contract.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, spotting changes before prices are set.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Claude Fable 5 will be restored for US customers by June 26" has dropped to 41%, down 16% in 24 hours.Due to US government export controls imposed on national security grounds, Anthropic suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9.Latest reports indicate that Anthropic executives have submitted a proposal to US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, pledging closer collaboration with the White House and working to address the security concerns that led to restrictions on its powerful "Mythos" and "Fable" models.Sources familiar with the matter say that during ongoing remediation negotiations, Anthropic has committed to resolving any security issues more quickly in the future, though there is currently no exact timeline for a complete resolution. Another insider stated that Anthropic co-founder and Chief Computing Officer Tom Brown, along with Head of Public Policy Sarah Heck, are leading negotiations with Trump administration officials. Representatives from both Anthropic and the Department of Commerce did not respond to requests for comment.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the Polymarket “GPT-5.6 will not be publicly available before June 28” probability has risen to 78%, up 67% in 24 hours.OpenAI Chief Scientist Jakub Pachocki described GPT-5.6 as a significant upgrade over GPT-5.5 in an internal memo on June 11. Analysts suggest that previous leaked information related to the Codex backend in May, along with the relatively fast iteration pace following the release of GPT-5.5 on April 23, have strengthened market expectations for the imminent launch of GPT-5.6.The rules stipulate that GPT-5.6 includes both models explicitly named GPT-5.6 and models identified by OpenAI as direct successors to GPT-5.5 (such as GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc.). Task-specific models, cost-optimized versions like Nano/Mini, and o-series reasoning models are not within the scope of this event. Next-generation flagship models such as GPT-6 are also ineligible. Eligible models must be officially opened for public use, including open beta or open waitlist forms. Versions limited to closed beta or private access do not meet the settlement criteria.This event will primarily rely on OpenAI’s official announcements and website information as the main basis for settlement, supplemented by verification from credible media reports.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before prices are set.
Monitoring by Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers before July 1" on Polymarket has risen to 73%, up 33% in 24H.If Anthropic reopens Claude Fable 5 (or Claude Mythos, or a version confirmed to be the same model) to the US public before the specified date, this event will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No". Qualifying methods of restoration include public beta or public waitlist; closed testing and private access do not count. Other models such as Haiku, Sonnet, and Opus are not included by default unless they are confirmed to be the same model as Claude Fable 5. Settlement will primarily be based on official announcements from Anthropic, supplemented by consensus reports from mainstream media.Due to export controls imposed by the US government on national security grounds, Anthropic urgently suspended global access to the Claude Fable 5 model just days after its release on June 9. Although the restrictions were primarily aimed at foreign users, due to the difficulty of real-time user identity screening, Anthropic ultimately closed access for all users, including those in the US, and switched requests to less capable models such as Opus 4.8. Anthropic is currently engaged in high-level discussions with the White House on issues including model capabilities and potential jailbreak risks. The company has publicly stated that the ban may have stemmed from a misunderstanding and is actively pushing to restore access.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Monitoring from the Odaily Seer Prophet Channel shows that the probability of "o1 TGE market cap exceeding $400 million on day 2" on Polymarket has risen to 89%, up 81% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on the fully diluted valuation (FDV) of the o1 governance token one day after its launch. If the FDV of the o1 governance token at 16:00 Eastern Time on the day following its launch is higher than the stated value in the title, it will settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No."The token must be publicly available, transferable, and tradable to be considered fully launched. FDV will be calculated by multiplying the total token supply by the token price, with the price source being the most liquid source at the time. If o1 fails to launch a token before 23:59 Eastern Time on December 31, 2027, the event will settle as "No."Previous news: o1.exchange completes $4.2 million financing, co-led by Coinbase Ventures and AllianceDAOThe Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, observing changes before pricing occurs.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability on Polymarket for "Will Anthropic's valuation reach $1.1 trillion before June 30" has risen to 67%, up 30% in 24 hours.This event will be settled based on Anthropic's private market valuation data released by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM). If Anthropic's NPM Price reaches or exceeds the specified amount between the market creation and June 30, 2026, the event will be settled as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be settled as "No".Anthropic's latest funding round was completed on May 28, achieving a post-money valuation of $965 billion after its $65 billion Series H round, just one step away from common short-term thresholds like $1 trillion. With this prediction market set to settle on June 30, traders are monitoring secondary market liquidity and whether any new primary financing or tender offer activity could push its implied valuation higher within the remaining window. Recent estimates show Anthropic's annualized revenue run rate is approaching $47 billion, continuing to support investor demand. However, no new funding announcements have emerged since late May, and IPO preparations remain longer-term.Odaily Seer Channel continues to follow prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Claude Mythos model release date being June 10" is currently at 74%, up 24% in 24 hours. Additionally, the probability for "Release before June 12" stands at 83%; "Release before June 15" at 89%; "Release before June 22" at 95%; "Release before June 30" at 94%; and "Release before July 31" at 99%.Previously reported, tech journalist Alex Heath revealed that Anthropic will release a "public version of Mythos" tomorrow. The company plans to rename and slightly adjust Mythos, releasing it under the name "Fable 5."Odaily Seer continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing occurs.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring shows that on Polymarket, the probability of "Israel will close its airspace before June 30" has risen to 64%, a 24H increase of 52%; additionally, the probability of "Israel will close its airspace before June 15" has risen to 59%, a 24H increase of 52%.Closing airspace refers to the closure of all of Israel's civilian airspace, or a closure covering most of Israel's civilian airspace, resulting in flight cancellations or a complete suspension of commercial aviation, including commercial flights transiting, arriving at, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply to flights nationwide in Israel, or to a qualifying major portion of Israel's airspace. Limited-scope flight cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops, or individual regional closures do not meet the conditions for a "Yes" settlement.If there are a few exceptions within the context of a large-scale closure, such as permitting some pre-approved flights to pass, this does not affect the closure being deemed valid. Warnings, no-fly zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions issued by airlines or countries other than Israel cannot serve as sufficient basis for a "Yes" settlement.After the US-Israel-Iran ceasefire on April 8, Iran today launched missiles at Israel again after a two-month interval. Trump stated that his advice to Iran is, since the missiles have been launched, they should now return to the negotiating table and reach an agreement. Trump also said he will call Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to tell him not to retaliate.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continuously monitors the prediction market, seeing changes before they are priced in.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event titled "Was Zcash's Orchard privacy pool confirmed to have been exploited?"On June 4, Zcash's core development team revealed that they had deployed an emergency network upgrade to fix a critical cryptographic vulnerability in the Orchard privacy pool. This flaw could have potentially allowed a malicious attacker to arbitrarily forge unlimited amounts of ZEC. Due to the vulnerability's characteristic that "it is impossible to cryptographically prove whether it was exploited in the past," independent support organization Shielded Labs subsequently proposed on June 5 to deploy a new privacy pool during the NU7 upgrade at the end of July. They also suggested implementing strict "Turnstile-accounting" audits for tokens exiting Orchard to investigate whether any forged tokens exist. According to the settlement rules for this prediction event, if before December 31, 2026, official sources or mainstream credible media confirm that the vulnerability was effectively exploited on the mainnet before being patched, the event will settle as YES.Odaily Seer continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Odaily Seer Prophet Channel monitoring shows that the probability of "Zcash will hit $100 in 2026" on Polymarket has risen to 53%, a 24-hour increase of 36%.Market rules: If between 17:35 on November 24, 2025, and 23:59 on December 31, 2026 (Eastern Time), the lowest price (Low) of any 1-minute candlestick of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair reaches or falls below the price stated in the title, this market will immediately settle as "Yes"; otherwise, it will settle as "No." Settlement is based solely on the 1-minute candlestick data of the Binance ZEC/USDT trading pair; prices from other exchanges or trading pairs will not be considered.In previous news, the privacy coin Zcash disclosed and fixed a critical security vulnerability that could have been exploited by malicious miners to transfer over 25,000 ZEC (approximately $6.5 million) from the deprecated Sprout privacy pool. Officials stated that the vulnerability had existed since July 2020 but was not actually exploited, and user funds remained safe at all times. The development team has released version v6.12.0 to complete the fix, and major mining pools have already upgraded their deployments.Odaily Seer Prophet Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
Odaily Seer monitoring shows that the probability of Polymarket's “GPT 5.6 will be released before June 15” has dropped to 21%, a 24H decline of 45%. In addition, the probability of “GPT 5.6 will be released before June 30” has dropped to 80%, a 24H decline of 13%. It is reported that OpenAI plans to release the next-generation AI model GPT 5.6 in June 2026, which is currently in the internal testing phase.Odaily Seer continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitors that Polymarket's "o1.exchange will TGE before June 30" event probability has risen to 90%, a 29% increase in 24 hours.This morning, o1.exchange founder Jerry Pan posted on X platform, stating that the o1.exchange whitepaper has been released. According to the whitepaper content, the TGE date is June 17.The Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing changes before pricing.
Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel monitoring indicates a new prediction event on Polymarket: "Will the U.S. House and Senate pass the same resolution by June 30, 2026, aimed at limiting U.S. military action against Iran in recent conflicts?"Since the escalation of U.S. military operations against Iran at the end of February this year, the power struggle between the two parties in Congress over the 1973 War Powers Resolution has experienced multiple failures. Although the Senate advanced a related procedural vote in mid-May, and the House also briefly formed a cross-party majority, the House Republican leadership, on the eve of the recess on May 21, cited "absentee members and insufficient votes" to urgently withdraw and postpone the full floor vote. With lawmakers returning to Washington after the Memorial Day recess in early June, the time window for the two chambers to unify the amendment text and complete final passage is extremely compressed. Coupled with the White House's tough stance, potentially using a veto, the market leans toward the view that the two chambers will not reach a substantial binding resolution before the June 30 deadline.Odaily Seer Prophecy Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before pricing.
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel, the Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" has dropped to 25%, a 25% decrease in a single week. The total trading volume for this event has now approached $12 million.The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any date between the market creation and June 30, 2026, is equal to or greater than 60, the market will be resolved as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be resolved as "No." Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.Previously, US and Iranian forces clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump stated earlier today that negotiations with Iran regarding a temporary peace agreement would "yield good results," and he faces a balancing act between potential criticism if Washington agrees to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request. Trump had indicated last Friday that he would make a "final decision," but he postponed it as both sides continue to negotiate details, including Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz waterway (which may require demining first).The Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel continues to monitor the prediction market. See changes before they are priced in.