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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X platform that Bitcoin's MVRV Z-Score has dropped to approximately 0.42, about four times lower than its historical average of 1.7, indicating Bitcoin is currently in an undervalued zone. However, this metric has not yet entered negative territory, suggesting the market has not shown the "capitulation selling" typically associated with cycle bottoms.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day Realized P/L has turned positive from negative, currently standing at approximately $239 million, indicating that on-chain selling pressure has eased. The analysis suggests that while the market is currently in an undervalued and short-term stabilization phase, it has yet to show the capitulation signal needed to confirm a cycle bottom, nor is there clear demand-driven momentum from a new cycle.
According to TechFlow Research, JPMorgan's quantitative report on July 16 noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index has cumulatively declined by approximately 19% since its high on June 22, but quantitative models indicate that the unwinding of crowding in AI-related sectors is not yet complete. The "AI Bubble Interest Score" tracked by the model remains in the historical highest range; at this level, the probability of SOX falling another 8% or more in the short term exceeds 50%. JPMorgan provided a quantifiable entry signal: only when the score falls out of the historical highest range is it truly time to consider scaling in. Before this, every rebound may be pressed back by panic narratives. For US stock investors, now is not the time to add positions; it is recommended to wait for the window in mid-August, or use put options and defensive sectors to hedge. For A-share investors, the volatility of the domestic AI sector is higher; the same logic can be applied, waiting for clearer right-side signals, with the August earnings period being the key window.
The current Bitcoin Market State Score is +34.7, within the bullish zone; Market State Confidence, reflecting the consistency of the model's components, has risen to 79.4%, approaching the high confidence threshold.
: On-chain analyst Ai Yi posted on platform X, stating that account 0xec4…6c92b correctly predicted the 3:2 score in this morning's knockout match between Argentina and Egypt, profiting $106,900 from a $2,329.9 wager, achieving a return rate of 4488%.
: On-chain data analytics platform Glassnode posted on X that its “Accumulation Trend Score” indicator shows that after Bitcoin’s price dipped to the $60,000 range in early June, the overall behavior of on-chain addresses has notably shifted toward accumulation.This indicator measures the intensity of on-chain accumulation behavior by combining holding sizes with recent balance changes. A score close to 1 represents widespread accumulation, while a score near 0 indicates ongoing distribution.Glassnode notes that as the price enters lower ranges, the scores for holders of different sizes rise simultaneously, indicating a typical “buy-the-dip” market structure. That is, the price decline did not trigger sustained selling, but instead sparked stronger on-chain demand inflows.Analysts believe that this cross-cohort synchronized accumulation structure typically appears in the early stages of market sentiment recovery, reflecting that medium- to long-term capital is being repositioned.
According to Odaily, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market price from its realized value (the average cost of each coin since its last on-chain transaction), helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the green zone historically considered the "accumulation range" (around 0 and below). Historically, the bottom of every major bear market has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major crash in 2011-2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022, each time paving the way for a subsequent bull run.However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still possess substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the MVRV of short-term and long-term holders converge, a cyclical bottom tends to form (as was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022).Although it is difficult to precisely predict the market bottom, after the hundreds of billions of dollars in sell-offs last week, conditions that have historically signaled a rebound are gradually emerging. This suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be approaching its end, and investors can monitor on-chain MVRV indicators and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)