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QCP: BTC Trades in Narrow Range, Surging Oil Prices Weigh on Risk Assets

据 QCP Group 发布的市场报告,当前市场整体处于风险规避状态。受美伊紧张局势升级影响,布伦特原油突破每桶 85 美元,创一个月新高,周涨幅超 10%;美股半导体板块领跌,市场担忧超大规模云厂商或削减 AI 基础设施支出,资金转向防御性板块与能源板块。 加密市场方面,BTC 持续在 63,000 至 65,000 美元区间内窄幅整理,现报 64,100 美元附近,7 月 17 日曾短暂跌至 62,924 美元低点;ETH 表现持续弱于 BTC,现报 1,832 美元,此前短暂突破 1,900 美元后回落,关键阻力位在 1,847 美元,多头需收复 200 日均线(约 2,400 美元)方可改善整体结构。 资金面出现积极信号,美国现货比特币 ETF 连续四日录得净流入,扭转此前创纪录的 80 亿美元净流出趋势。期权市场方面,已实现波动率持续压缩,前端期权定价相对低廉,做市商在 7 月 28 至 29 日 FOMC 会议前处于 Gamma 空头状态,若霍尔木兹海峡紧张局势缓和,上行加速风险不容忽视。

Strategy Bitcoin Strategy Manager: STRC Short-Term Dislocation Fixed, Targeting Long-Term Return to $99–100 Range

Chaitanya Jain, Bitcoin Strategy Manager at Strategy, stated on X that STRC has begun to recover after a brief price dislocation. The company's goal is to drive its long-term gradual return and stabilization in the $99–100 range.He noted that Strategy will achieve this goal through multiple tools, including: a floating dividend rate mechanism, a continuously growing USD reserve, the gradual unwinding of convertible bond structures, share buybacks, and ongoing product feature enhancements.

Stablecoin compliance startup Range raises $8.3 million in Series A funding, with participation from TX Ventures and others

Range, a stablecoin compliance startup, announced the completion of an $8.3 million Series A funding round, with participation from TX Ventures, SixThirty, Maven 11 Capital, Onigiri Capital, and others. The project's total funding to date has reached $11 million.Range provides a unified platform for companies operating both stablecoins and fiat currencies. Its core products include Unify, a real-time ledger system, and Protect, an on-chain transaction screening tool. Its clients include Circle, Solana Foundation, Stellar, Squads, and Jupiter, among others. The funds from this round will be used to expand the Unify and Protect products, grow the engineering and business development teams, and increase integrations and network coverage. (The Block)

stablecoin compliance infrastructure Range completes $8.3 million Series A funding, led by TX Ventures and others

stablecoin compliance infrastructure Range has announced the completion of an $8.3 million Series A funding round. The round was led by Swiss TX Ventures and US-based SixThirty, along with other traditional fintech funds, with participation from crypto-native funds such as Maven 11 Capital and Onigiri Capital. To date, the company's total funding has reached $11 million. The new funds will be used to support the development of a unified compliance financial infrastructure platform designed to bridge stablecoins and fiat payment systems, primarily serving enterprises that operate on both on-chain and traditional banking systems. (Chainwire)

Remixpoint Announces FY2027 Financial Forecasts; Net Sales for Digital Asset Management Business Expected to Range from ¥5.107 Billion to ¥12.442 Billion

Remixpoint, a Japanese Bitcoin treasury company, has released its consolidated earnings forecast for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2027. According to the forecast, net sales for FY2027 are expected to range from ¥48.777 billion to ¥56.112 billion, operating profit from ¥6.723 billion to ¥14.058 billion, net income attributable to owners of parent from ¥5.319 billion to ¥11.443 billion, and earnings per share from ¥36.28 to ¥78.06. The digital asset management business is projected to contribute net sales of ¥5.107 billion to ¥12.442 billion, with departmental profit matching this amount. The forecast assumes a Bitcoin price range of $86,000 to $116,000, which is expected to generate valuation gains of ¥4.707 billion to ¥12.042 billion, along with approximately ¥400 million in cryptocurrency lending revenue. Additionally, the energy business is expected to achieve departmental profit of ¥2.005 billion, while the energy storage solutions business is projected to achieve departmental profit of ¥1.002 billion. The company stated that FY2027 will serve as a pivotal year for restoring profitability and enhancing contributions from growth businesses, and plans to improve transparency in revenue structure and KPI disclosures across all business segments.

CryptoQuant: Bitcoin Is Approaching Its Valuation Bottom Range, but Shrinking Demand Indicates the Bottom Has Not Yet Been Confirmed

CryptoQuant’s latest report states that Bitcoin has fallen to a new low of $59,000 in this bear market cycle—only 9% above its realized price of $53,600—and is now approaching the historical bottom range of past bear markets from a valuation perspective.

Wintermute Launches DeFi Vault Curation Platform Armitage, Supporting a Broader Range of Collateral Types

According to The Block, crypto market maker Wintermute has launched Armitage, a DeFi treasury curation platform offering non-custodial treasuries tailored to varying risk appetites to access decentralized lending opportunities. Wintermute stated that, leveraging its market-making operations and liquidation execution capabilities, Armitage can accept “collateral types unsupported by other curators.” The announcement notes that user deposits require no KYC, and users retain full control over their funds. As institutions continue to deploy treasury strategies on Ethereum-based Morpho, Solana-based Kamino, and others, treasuries are becoming a key tool for institutional participation in crypto markets.

QCP: Inflation Data Releases Pile Up—BTC May Remain Range-Bound in the Short Term

According to QCP analysis, this week features a dense schedule of macroeconomic events, with market attention focused on three key themes: First, President Trump and President Xi Jinping are scheduled to meet in Beijing this week, with discussions expected to cover tariffs, the rare-earth supply chain, and the Middle East situation; markets are watching closely to see whether substantive progress can be achieved on trade. Second, April’s CPI, PPI, and retail sales data will be released sequentially; if inflation stabilizes, real yields may decline—historically providing support for the crypto market—whereas the opposite would reinforce expectations of monetary tightening. Third, the U.S. Senate Banking Committee will hold hearings on the CLARITY Act; legislative progress could further catalyze institutional capital inflows. Currently, despite ETF outflows last week, BTC has held the $80,000 level, while crypto volatility remains near its lowest point of the year, with the VIX at approximately 18. In the short term, BTC is highly likely to remain range-bound, with $84,000 serving as a key resistance level.

QCP: BTC Enters Range-Bound Trading, Funding Rate Remains Low, and Volatility Continues to Contract

According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.

Kalshi Launches Commodity Market, Offering Price Prediction Services for Full Range of Commodities Including Soybeans, Natural Gas, Corn, Live Cattle

Odaily News Kalshi has launched a 24/7 commodity market, providing price prediction services for commodities including crude oil, diesel, gold, silver, copper, lithium, natural gas, sugar, soybeans, wheat, corn, coffee, cocoa, live cattle, and more.