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QCP: BTC Enters Range-Bound Trading, Funding Rate Remains Low, and Volatility Continues to Contract

According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.

CryptoQuant Analyst: BTC Composite Market Index (BCMI) Approaches High-Confidence Support Zone, Entering Value Accumulation Range

According to CryptoQuant analyst Woominkyu, Bitcoin’s Composite Market Index (BCMI) is currently testing a significant historical pivot zone, having declined into the 0.2–0.3 range—indicating that BTC is in one of its historically deepest undervaluation zones. The BCMI comprises MVRV (30% weight), NUPL (25% weight), SOPR, and the Fear & Greed Index. This correction has reset both realized value and investor sentiment to levels not seen since early 2023. He also notes that the 90-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) remains in a downtrend; confirmation of selling pressure exhaustion and price stabilization will require the SMA’s slope to flatten.

Hyperbridge Contract Hit by MMR Proof Replay Vulnerability, Suffering ~$242,000 in Losses

According to BlockSec Phalcon, the HandlerV1 contract managed by Hyperbridge on the Ethereum network was found to contain a Merkle Mountain Range (MMR) proof replay vulnerability, resulting in approximately $242,000 in losses. The vulnerability stems from the lack of binding between proofs and requests, enabling attackers to replay historical valid proofs alongside newly forged requests to perform malicious actions—such as altering administrator privileges. In the specific incident, the attacker changed the Polkadot (DOT) token administrator and then exploited those privileges to mint additional DOT tokens for profit. Observed attack transactions include: changing the DOT token administrator and minting new tokens (losses of ~$237,400), changing the ARGN token administrator and minting new tokens (losses of ~$3,800), and host withdrawal operations. The vulnerability was discovered by PhalconSecurity and analyzed via PhalconExplorer. Previously, the Hyperbridge gateway contract was attacked, leading to the unauthorized minting and subsequent dumping of 1 billion DOT tokens on Ethereum.