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According to QCP Capital’s market report, as the geopolitical risk premium gradually subsided last week, market sentiment turned cautious, and investors’ attention has refocused on policy direction, the interest-rate path, and the economic growth outlook. Equities have been trading near recent highs but lack momentum for an upside breakout. The Federal Reserve’s FOMC decision is due today. A pause in rate hikes is now the baseline market expectation; however, with no new CPI or employment data released since the prior meeting, markets are highly sensitive to Chair Powell’s commentary—any hawkish signal could swiftly reprice front-end rates and tighten financial conditions. Meanwhile, growing attention is turning to potential leadership changes at the Fed. Kevin Warsh has gained increasing traction in market forecasts. His hawkish stance on inflation and skepticism toward quantitative easing stand in marked contrast to current policy approaches. Should he assume leadership, liquidity-driven assets—including crypto—could face pressure, given crypto markets’ particular sensitivity to rising real yields and a stronger U.S. dollar. Regarding Bitcoin: after a strong performance in April—supported by ETF inflows and sustained institutional accumulation—the price has entered a range-bound phase. Funding rates remain subdued, volatility continues to narrow, and the broader market is in a wait-and-see mode. QCP believes Bitcoin’s next directional move will hinge more on Fed signals and macroeconomic data than on crypto-native flows. Additionally, the upcoming tech earnings season, alongside releases of the PCE and GDP price indices, will further test the validity of the “soft landing” narrative.
Odaily News Bitcoin rose to around $74,935 during Asian trading hours, gaining 0.7% in the past 24 hours and 5.4% for the week. However, the derivatives market is sending mixed signals. Institutional firm QCP Capital noted that this rally is primarily driven by spot buying, not a broad-based recovery in risk appetite. Currently, Bitcoin perpetual futures funding rates remain negative, and open interest is declining, indicating that shorts are still adding hedges rather than being forced to liquidate.The options market also leans cautious: short-term implied volatility is subdued, with the one-month tenor lower than the three-month, and risk reversal indicators show market demand for downside protection exceeds that for upside bets, suggesting traders are more willing to pay for potential declines than to chase gains. QCP believes this looks more like a "rebound" than a trend reversal.On the macro front, long-term U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices have not confirmed a recovery in risk appetite. Gold remains near its highs, indicating persistent safe-haven demand. Institutions point out that the current market action is more of a "sentiment repair" driven by ceasefire expectations, rather than a resolution of core risks.Furthermore, Ethereum has shown relative strength, with the ETH/BTC ratio recovering to around 0.0315. Coupled with on-chain transaction volume and stablecoin supply reaching all-time highs, this suggests signs of capital rotation into higher-beta assets. However, the market still needs to observe the evolution of subsequent risk events to confirm the sustainability of this rally. (CoinDesk)