News linked to both this project and an event.
DeFi researcher Ignas posted on X stating that during the current market downturn, the "buy the dip" sentiment commonly seen in the past has rarely appeared on social media. Although some market participants believe that Bitcoin holding the $77,000 to $80,000 range is a bullish signal, most crypto traders may already hold substantial token positions, and some investors would rather wait for price confirmation of an uptrend before buying than bottom-fish amid panic. Assets decoupled from Bitcoin's price action such as HYPE, as well as "conviction tokens" like ZEC and revenue-generating assets like HYPE, remain attractive. However, there is currently insufficient potential buying interest—retail investors who previously favored crypto assets are now being buffeted by volatility in assets such as AI stocks, gold, and quantum computing, and crypto ETF fund flows have also turned to net outflows over the past 30 days.
Morgan Stanley assessed that surging real yields did not weigh down gold prices, attributing the gap to structural demand from central bank purchases and ETF inflows, with global gold ETF inflows hitting a record $31 billion in Q3.
CryptoQuant platform analyst Trdaer_Gemini posted that BTC is currently trading just above $80,000, positioned above the Trader Realized Price, which has risen to approximately $75,000 (reflecting the average acquisition cost of BTC most recently moved between 1 and 3 months ago). Historically, this level frequently serves as support during bull market pullbacks; if the price breaks below and sustains beneath it, underwater traders may exit positions as they approach breakeven, potentially flipping the level into resistance. Furthermore, when the price approaches the Upper Band, it is typically accompanied by increased profit-taking pressure and short-term pullbacks. The analyst emphasized that the Upper Band does not guarantee a market top, nor does the Realized Price guarantee a rebound; neither should be treated as automated trading signals, but rather used as observation points to identify where market participants may shift their behavior.
trader Killa has posted that current Bitcoin price action is highly similar to 2023. At that time, after BTC broke out of its consolidation range and posted a higher weekly high, it did not fall back below the previous high, but instead went on to form a higher low. If a similar pattern plays out this time, BTC may hold the upper boundary of its previous range, and the price may not fall back to the previous $74,000 low, but instead bottom out and rebound at a higher level. The current trend remains clearly bullish.
Odaily reports: Prediction market platform Kalshi plans to launch exchange-traded futures contracts tracking the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) and core CPI in December. It is pitching the products to major banks and hedge funds and has hired former Barclays trader Michael Ashton, known as "Mr. Inflation," to design the contracts and expand institutional clients. If launched, this would become a unique futures product directly tracking CPI, helping institutional investors hedge against inflation and Federal Reserve interest rate change risks, and further positioning Kalshi to enter the traditional derivatives market dominated by CME Group (CME) and Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Kalshi has confirmed it is developing CPI futures but did not disclose specific launch details. (Bloomberg)
In a research report released on Thursday, DWF Labs pointed out that daily fund flows of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs are poor predictors of Bitcoin's subsequent price movements, as investors tend to buy after prices rise and withdraw funds when prices fall. The study covered 694 trading days since the launch of U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024: in the 8 instances where Bitcoin's price dropped by 15%, net ETF outflows occurred 7 times; while in all 9 instances where prices rose by 15%, net inflows occurred. DWF Labs concluded that ETF fund flows are more of a confirmation of market trends rather than a leading indicator.Data shows that the correlation coefficient between same-day ETF fund flows and Bitcoin price changes over the previous 5 trading days was 0.54, but the correlation coefficient with price changes over the subsequent 5 trading days was only 0.03. Between October 2025 and February 2026, Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of approximately $6.9 billion, and during the market downturn from May to June 2026, net outflows reached approximately $8.2 billion. DWF Labs also noted that some ETF trading may involve hedging strategies that combine buying fund shares with shorting Bitcoin via CME futures, meaning fund flows do not directly reflect investors' true bullish or bearish positions. (Cointelegraph)
According to The Block, TD Cowen analysts Lance Vitanza and Jonnathan Navarrete raised their price target for Strive (ASST) on Friday from $44 to $56. Strive's bitcoin holdings have increased to 35,595 BTC, valued at approximately $2.9 billion, up from 28,000 BTC at the end of September. This represents an acquisition of nearly 7,600 BTC over two weeks, surpassing TD Cowen's previous forecast of adding 4,750 BTC in the fourth quarter. The purchases include 3,311 BTC acquired on Tuesday (approximately $280 million, marking its largest single transaction since January) and 2,822 BTC on Wednesday. Strive is now the publicly traded company with the fourth-largest bitcoin treasury, marginally ahead of MARA's reported holdings. Strive has simultaneously expanded its SATS preferred stock offering to 7 million shares at $90 per share, targeting $630 million in proceeds, with completion expected by October 20. The company plans to reserve cash sufficient to cover dividend payments for 18 months. TD Cowen expects the offering to fund future bitcoin acquisitions without necessitating additional common stock issuance.
Odaily reports: According to Odaily monitoring, an address currently holds approximately 1.38 million HYPE long positions, with a notional value of approximately $114.63 million and current unrealized profit of approximately $61.256 million. This position accounts for approximately 6.88% of HYPE contract open interest, with a denominator of approximately $1.667 billion in total market notional open interest. This is the first observation; no trades were found in existing records, and the position entry time cannot be determined based on this information. According to the official leaderboard, this address has a daily PnL loss of approximately $6.947 million and a weekly PnL loss of approximately $14.344 million, both ranking No. 1; the leaderboard data is not equivalent to self-calculated realized PnL.Address: 0x082e843a431aef031264dc232693dd710aedca88Contract: HYPECurrent Position: Long, notional value $114,630,100Current Unrealized PnL: $61,256,100Official Leaderboard Account PnL (Last 1 Day): -$6,946,700Official Leaderboard Account PnL (Last 7 Days): -$14,343,600Account Observed Contract Trades Realized PnL: $0.00 (excluding funding fees)Distance from Liquidation Price at Observation Time: 10.30% (not a liquidation prediction)
Odaily reports: Crypto trader Rune stated on X platform that PaperTrade's official documentation has actually disclosed a "vulnerability" risk in the protocol-level pricing mechanism. According to the document screenshots he shared, attackers can exploit the BBO (Best Bid and Offer) of the Hyperliquid order book for price manipulation. This risk involves unresolved price manipulation paths, contract economic mechanisms and risk exposure controls, as well as operational-level protective measures and permission management mechanisms.Additionally, Rune retweeted a post by community user boblob, which revealed that two wallets were suspected of actively exploiting and "attacking" the PaperTrade platform, conducting trades worth approximately $20 million that briefly caused ETH price fluctuations of about 10-20 basis points on the Hyperliquid platform. boblob further added that the obvious issues currently present in the PaperTrade protocol need to be fixed as soon as possible, otherwise they may affect the protocol's long-term sustainability.
Odaily News — A whale trader on Hyperliquid holds a short position of 391.48 BTC, valued at $32.36 million, with an average entry price of $82,863.10. The account has $7.19 million in equity, uses cross margin with 13x leverage, and has a liquidation price of $99,801.20.According to Hyperbot data, the account has executed a total of 4,726 trades, with perpetual contract profits of $952,200 over the past week and a maximum drawdown of 11.03%. As of the time of disclosure, the short position is profitable by approximately $75,500, with funding fees of $64,249.75.This position emerged on the one-year anniversary of the massive crypto market liquidation event on October 10, 2025. Hyperliquid's Bitcoin market open interest is approximately 38,040 BTC, with this account's position accounting for about 1% of it.Coinglass data shows that if Bitcoin rises to $85,000, approximately $3.3 billion in short positions would face liquidation. Polymarket data indicates that the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100,000 before December 31, 2026, is 27.5%. On October 9, spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $21.13 million, with BlackRock's IBIT leading the way. (Bitcoin.com News)
Crypto analyst Darkfost stated in a post that over the past decade, the amplitude of Bitcoin price fluctuations around the "Power Law" trendline has been gradually decreasing, with market cycle volatility trending toward convergence. The oscillator index peak has declined from +169 in 2018 to +102 in 2025, while its daily change standard deviation has fallen from 4.81 to 2.47, representing a drop of approximately 49%. Darkfost added that as of October 3, the model’s oscillator index stood at +34.5, with Bitcoin trading at approximately $84,700. Based on that day's model parameters, an oscillator index reaching +100 would correspond to a Bitcoin price of roughly $157,800, which is about 86% higher than the current price. He also noted that $157,800 is not a fixed target price, but rather a reference level calculated based on current regression parameters. If the Power Law trendline continues to rise in the future, this reference level will increase accordingly.
In pre-market analysis, trader degentrading (@degentradingLSD) highlights the following key market signals: • Macro: The 10Y yield has risen to 5.2% and the 30Y to 5.5%, nearing historical peaks. The South Korean stock market opened down 2.5%, with the memory and semiconductor sectors (SK Hynix, Samsung, MU, SNDK) broadly declining 2%–5%. Price action is expected to remain volatile ahead of MU's earnings report. • Next-Generation Cloud Computing: Project payback periods for compute infrastructure have fallen below one year. Market perception is shifting, and rapid revaluation of the new cloud sector is anticipated. Power supply bottlenecks are also gaining prominence. • Tech Stocks: META is trading lower in pre-market. Monitor for accumulation opportunities at the $690 support level or a breakout above all-time highs. If the broader hyperscale data center sector breaks out, META, MSFT, and peers could undergo paradigm-level repricing. • Crypto Markets: Broad weakness across major and alt coins, with BTC potentially testing the $82K support level. Risk capital was freed last week by trimming TAO and DOGE, and taking profit on CRDO. Since crypto sentiment typically remains positive during KBW week, the strategy this week centers on identifying short-term bullish setups.
DOG 创始人 Leonidas在 X 平台发文喊话 Bitget CEO 称，Bitget 在遭遇黑客攻击数小时后、用户提现仍处于暂停状态时发布 DOG 下架公告，叠加黑客事件引发的信任担忧，导致 DOG在 Bitget 出现严重价格脱锚，并直接影响持有或交易 DOG 的用户。
Odaily News: According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin's monitoring, the 35,000 ETH that Garrett Jin whale entity (0x92ea...050e) withdrew from Binance last night has been fully sold 10 minutes ago at a price of $2,500, worth $87.5 million. After selling the ETH, the entity added partial margin to its ZEC short position, raising the liquidation price from $2,631 to $4,738; the short position is currently showing an unrealized loss of $30 million.
According to on-chain analytics platform Glassnode (@glassnode), Bitcoin’s price fell to approximately $76,000, breaking below the consolidation range maintained since late August and dropping roughly 1% below the “Realized Price” of $76,700. Despite multiple headwinds including the failure of the Senate’s CLARITY Act vote, sharp declines in altcoins, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, the pullback has remained moderate. On-chain capital inflows turned negative for the first time on September 15 following 27 consecutive days of growth; U.S. spot ETFs recorded cumulative net outflows of approximately $334 million from September 8 to 14; the total stablecoin market cap stands at roughly $301 billion, down about 4% from its April peak with recent growth stalling; and publicly traded companies have net-purchased only about 5,900 BTC over the past three months, far below the 89,000 BTC bought in July 2025, with an average corporate cost basis of approximately $80,500 leaving them currently underwater. The options market shifted to bearish sentiment within hours of the voting results being announced. Max pain for the September 25 expirations sits at $72,000, with heavy call option concentration capping upside near $85,000. The order book shows thin bid liquidity below $68,000; should this range break decisively, subsequent key support levels would be the short-term holder cost basis at $71,300 and the on-chain support zone between $62,000 and $65,000.
Odaily News According to data from the Korea Securities Depository, Korean retail investors recorded a net purchase of approximately $85.61 million (about 118.5 billion KRW) in the "Roundhill Memory ETF" between August 14 and 20, making it the second-largest product by net purchase amount among the country's overseas individual stocks and ETFs (trailing only Google's parent company Alphabet). This actively managed ETF primarily invests in major memory chip companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron.Recently, memory chip stocks have shown a clear rebound. From August 10 to 21, SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics saw their stock prices rise by 21.6% and 21.8%, respectively, both outpacing the 10.4% gain of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) over the same period. On the US market side, Micron rose approximately 11% during the same timeframe, while SanDisk gained around 32%.The domestic Korean ETF market has also seen capital inflows. Data shows that between August 14 and 20, the "TIGER US S&P500 ETF," which tracks the S&P 500 index, attracted net inflows of 170.9 billion KRW, while the "KODEX US Nasdaq 100 ETF," which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index, saw net inflows of 132.3 billion KRW. Market analysts believe that as expectations for a semiconductor cycle recovery grow, investors are increasing their allocations to the AI chip and memory chip supply chain. (Daum)
According to Korean media outlet Economist, as the memory chip sector mounts a strong rebound, South Korean retail investors are accelerating capital inflows into U.S.-listed ETFs investing in companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. Data from the Korea Securities Depository shows that domestic retail investors recorded a weekly net purchase of approximately $85.61 million (roughly 118.5 billion won) in the Roundhill Memory ETF, making it the second-largest product by net buying volume among overseas individual stocks and ETFs during the same period. The ETF primarily invests in major memory chip enterprises including Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron. Memory chip stocks have recently witnessed a clear recovery, with SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics shares rising 21.6% and 21.8%, respectively, over the past two weeks, both outpacing the 10.4% gain of the Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI). In the U.S. market, Micron rose approximately 11%, while SanDisk gained around 32%.
According to Chaoxiang Research, Morgan Stanley's August 20 report indicates that gold has hit its fourth-quarter target price of $4,450 per ounce. From July to August, easing expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes spurred net inflows of 70 tons into gold ETFs, reversing the 93-ton net outflow seen from May to June. The People's Bank of China purchased 60 tons of gold this year, marking its highest accumulation since 2023; Poland added 82 tons, raising total holdings to 632 tons and approaching its 700-ton target. Morgan Stanley maintains that gold prices are decoupling from the real interest rate framework. Persistent central bank buying, COMEX short positions falling to their lowest since April 2020, and fiscal concerns underlying yield curve steepening form a new structural foundation. The bank projects that gold prices could surpass $5,000 per ounce by 2027, with US inflation data serving as the main short-term volatility risk.
Odaily News: CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin (BTC) is currently attempting to reclaim the "Active Supply Cost Basis" level.Darkfost noted that active supply refers to all BTC that has been transferred at least once within the past 7 years. By excluding long-dormant Bitcoin, a more accurate average cost basis that aligns with the current market structure can be obtained, with its Realized Price standing at approximately $70,400.He stated that the last time Bitcoin successfully reclaimed this level was in early April, before the market fell back below this zone again in early June, with sellers reasserting dominance.Darkfost said that if BTC can sustain its position above the active supply cost basis this time, it could signal the market is forming a longer-term uptrend, rather than the brief breakout that lasted only about two months previously.This metric is commonly used by the market to observe changes in long-term holder costs and Bitcoin market cycle status. Whether BTC can firmly hold near the $70,400 level will become a key indicator for future bullish and bearish forces.
Odaily News Bitfinex's latest report indicates that Bitcoin (BTC) has been fluctuating within a narrow range recently, with volatility, trading activity, and market liquidity all compressed to levels similar to those seen at the end of a bear market.Currently, Bitcoin's price remains above the "Median Realised Price" of around $63,200, while the key level for short-term holders (STH) to achieve overall profitability stands at $67,176. Meanwhile, market demand is weakening: U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $385 million last week, corporate Bitcoin reserve-related activity has turned negative, spot trading volume has fallen to multi-year lows, and Bitcoin transfer speed has dropped to its lowest level in seven years.Bitfinex stated that in the current extremely thin liquidity environment, even slight changes in capital flows could trigger significant Bitcoin price fluctuations. At the same time, weak retail activity, declining real income, and deteriorating consumer confidence indicate that U.S. household demand is under pressure. Bitfinex noted that the current market shows a clear divergence: accommodative financial conditions are driving traditional risk assets higher, but the crypto market has not yet received corresponding capital inflows.Bitfinex believes that the core market question has shifted from "whether monetary policy will improve" to "whether improved liquidity can translate into capital inflows for crypto assets." If Bitcoin spot ETFs resume sustained net inflows in the future, coupled with stablecoin supply expansion, this would signal a restart of the crypto market's liquidity transmission mechanism and could become a key catalyst for BTC breaking out of its prolonged low-volatility state.Before capital returns, although the macro environment is gradually improving, the crypto market's upside still lacks capital support. However, given that market participation has dropped to extremely low levels and BTC continues to hold key realized price support levels, once liquidity re-enters the market, it could trigger violent fluctuations. The current structure leans toward an upward breakout once demand recovers.