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Project Overview
Outcome is a decentralized prediction market platform designed to build a fully on-chain open market to verify the authenticity of the market.
Trading volume surges nearly 3x, but market access remains restricted after Hyperliquid HIP-4 permissionless deployment of prediction markets
Odaily Odaily News: After Hyperliquid opened third-party permissionless deployment of the HIP-4 prediction market layer on August 29, platform trading volume grew rapidly. In the first 28 days of August, HIP-4 had an average daily trading volume of approximately $545,000. After the permissionless deployment, daily trading volume rose to $1.97 million on August 31, with trading volume over the past 24 hours reaching $2.75 million. The number of active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841. Prediction market project Outcome currently accounts for nearly 85% of HIP-4's trading volume, and its $1 million trading incentive program has further driven liquidity growth. Hyperliquid's unified account system allows prediction markets to share the same account environment as perpetual contracts and HIP-3 assets, enabling users to hedge perpetual positions using prediction market contracts. Sports prediction markets could become the primary growth space for HIP-4. Previously, during the World Cup, HIP-4-related markets accumulated a total trading volume of $189.5 million, accounting for approximately 3% of global World Cup prediction market trading volume. The main constraint HIP-4 currently faces is regulatory access, rather than on-chain deployment. The U.S. market falls under regulatory frameworks such as the CFTC and SEC, and sports-related prediction markets in particular may trigger gambling-related regulatory scrutiny.
Hyperliquid Policy Center Urges CFTC to Open Compliance Routes for Decentralized Prediction Markets
the Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) has announced it has formally submitted a comment letter regarding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets. The HPC advocates for establishing clear compliance pathways for decentralized prediction markets built on public, permissionless blockchains, while simultaneously refining the regulatory framework for centralized prediction markets.In its comment letter, the HPC calls on the CFTC to develop more flexible, function-oriented rules tailored to decentralized market structures; to establish clear legal channels for U.S. market participants to access decentralized prediction markets; and to support U.S. leadership in the field of decentralized finance innovation.The HPC states that prediction markets are a natural extension of the federal derivatives framework. They help participants directly manage their economic risk exposure to real-world events and aggregate dispersed information through continuously updated market prices. Their price discovery capabilities have been widely validated and, in some cases, outperform traditional polling and expert forecasts.The HPC points out that decentralized prediction markets based on public blockchains offer advantages such as transparency, non-custodial operation, and high resilience. They do not rely on centralized operators to hold user funds, nor do they present single points of failure. All transactions are recorded in real-time on a public ledger, facilitating both regulatory oversight and market surveillance, while market access standards are more transparent and uniform.The HPC emphasizes that the current rulemaking process should not codify reliance on single exchange operators, custodial intermediaries, or traditional settlement monitoring mechanisms. Doing so would prevent U.S. users from legally participating in decentralized prediction markets. The HPC states it will continue to promote compliant access to Hyperliquid and HIP-4 Outcome Markets for U.S. market participants, and will maintain ongoing communication with the CFTC.
Hyperliquid lowers the minimum order amount for perpetual contracts to $1
Hyperliquid plans to lower the minimum order notional amount for Outcome contracts from $10 to $1 in its next network upgrade, while introducing a deployer remaining quota query feature. The specific upgrade time has not yet been announced.
Trading volume surges nearly 3x, but market access remains restricted after Hyperliquid HIP-4 permissionless deployment of prediction markets
Odaily Odaily News: After Hyperliquid opened third-party permissionless deployment of the HIP-4 prediction market layer on August 29, platform trading volume grew rapidly. In the first 28 days of August, HIP-4 had an average daily trading volume of approximately $545,000. After the permissionless deployment, daily trading volume rose to $1.97 million on August 31, with trading volume over the past 24 hours reaching $2.75 million. The number of active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841. Prediction market project Outcome currently accounts for nearly 85% of HIP-4's trading volume, and its $1 million trading incentive program has further driven liquidity growth. Hyperliquid's unified account system allows prediction markets to share the same account environment as perpetual contracts and HIP-3 assets, enabling users to hedge perpetual positions using prediction market contracts. Sports prediction markets could become the primary growth space for HIP-4. Previously, during the World Cup, HIP-4-related markets accumulated a total trading volume of $189.5 million, accounting for approximately 3% of global World Cup prediction market trading volume. The main constraint HIP-4 currently faces is regulatory access, rather than on-chain deployment. The U.S. market falls under regulatory frameworks such as the CFTC and SEC, and sports-related prediction markets in particular may trigger gambling-related regulatory scrutiny.
Hyperliquid plans to enable permissionless deployment of prediction markets via HIP-4, with up to 50% fee share supported in the future
Hyperliquid announced that HIP-4 (Outcome Markets) plans to support permissionless deployment in subsequent network upgrades, with the first phase launching on the testnet followed by expansion to the mainnet. According to the preliminary proposal, deployers are required to stake 500,000 HYPE. If the market definition is unclear, settlement is not performed correctly according to the template, or settlement is not completed within one week after the outcome is generated, validators can vote to slash the stake. Deployers can initially create 100 outcomes, with quotas to be expanded through an auction mechanism thereafter.
OpenAI Releases New GPT-5.6 Prompt Engineering Guidelines, Recommends Simplifying System Prompts
According to Decrypt, OpenAI has released a new prompt engineering guide for the flagship model GPT-5.6 Sol, with the core concept being "Outcome-First Prompting"—clarifying goals and termination conditions and avoiding lengthy procedural instructions. Internal programming agent tests show that streamlined system prompts improved evaluation scores by approximately 10–15%, while reducing total token usage by 41–66% and costs by 33–67%. The guide also adds the text.verbosity API parameter to globally control output verbosity, as well as a new "Programmatic Tool Calls" section, supporting the handoff of intermediate tasks such as filtering and batch processing to code to reduce the model's judgment burden. Additionally, the guide warns that GPT-5.6 strictly follows prompt rules, and conflicting instructions within the prompt will consume significant inference tokens and may lead to erroneous output.
Trezor Exec: Putting All Bitcoin into ETFs Might Be the Worst Outcome for the Industry, Undermining the Core Principle of Self-Custody
: Danny Sanders, Chief Business Officer of hardware wallet manufacturer Trezor, stated that "putting everything into ETFs" might be the worst development path for the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since the launch of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024, cumulative inflows have exceeded $53 billion, making them a significant driver of BTC prices, but also potentially altering the structure of how users hold their assets.Sanders believes that over-reliance on ETFs will weaken Bitcoin's core principle of "self-custody," gradually shifting asset control to third-party institutions instead of users holding their private keys. Although self-custody carries risks such as lost seed phrases or unrecoverable private key leaks, he considers these more of a psychological barrier than a technical challenge, adding that "it's not difficult once you actually start doing it."Data shows that out of approximately 600 million crypto users globally, only about 10% practice self-custody, and only around 12 to 13 million users employ hardware wallets.As an early hardware wallet provider in the industry, Trezor helped popularize the BIP-39 seed phrase standard and continues to advocate for lowering the barriers to self-custody through improved user experience and educational tools, rather than relying on intermediary custody.Sanders concluded that the industry's long-term goal should be to gradually approach a Web2-level user experience, rather than simply replacing self-custody with ETFs. "That would probably be the worst possible outcome for the entire industry." (The Block)
Hyperliquid Policy Center Urges CFTC to Open Compliance Routes for Decentralized Prediction Markets
the Hyperliquid Policy Center (HPC) has announced it has formally submitted a comment letter regarding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (ANPRM) on prediction markets. The HPC advocates for establishing clear compliance pathways for decentralized prediction markets built on public, permissionless blockchains, while simultaneously refining the regulatory framework for centralized prediction markets.In its comment letter, the HPC calls on the CFTC to develop more flexible, function-oriented rules tailored to decentralized market structures; to establish clear legal channels for U.S. market participants to access decentralized prediction markets; and to support U.S. leadership in the field of decentralized finance innovation.The HPC states that prediction markets are a natural extension of the federal derivatives framework. They help participants directly manage their economic risk exposure to real-world events and aggregate dispersed information through continuously updated market prices. Their price discovery capabilities have been widely validated and, in some cases, outperform traditional polling and expert forecasts.The HPC points out that decentralized prediction markets based on public blockchains offer advantages such as transparency, non-custodial operation, and high resilience. They do not rely on centralized operators to hold user funds, nor do they present single points of failure. All transactions are recorded in real-time on a public ledger, facilitating both regulatory oversight and market surveillance, while market access standards are more transparent and uniform.The HPC emphasizes that the current rulemaking process should not codify reliance on single exchange operators, custodial intermediaries, or traditional settlement monitoring mechanisms. Doing so would prevent U.S. users from legally participating in decentralized prediction markets. The HPC states it will continue to promote compliant access to Hyperliquid and HIP-4 Outcome Markets for U.S. market participants, and will maintain ongoing communication with the CFTC.
Related news
Hyperliquid lowers the minimum order amount for perpetual contracts to $1
Hyperliquid plans to lower the minimum order notional amount for Outcome contracts from $10 to $1 in its next network upgrade, while introducing a deployer remaining quota query feature. The specific upgrade time has not yet been announced.
Trading volume surges nearly 3x, but market access remains restricted after Hyperliquid HIP-4 permissionless deployment of prediction markets
Odaily Odaily News: After Hyperliquid opened third-party permissionless deployment of the HIP-4 prediction market layer on August 29, platform trading volume grew rapidly. In the first 28 days of August, HIP-4 had an average daily trading volume of approximately $545,000. After the permissionless deployment, daily trading volume rose to $1.97 million on August 31, with trading volume over the past 24 hours reaching $2.75 million. The number of active traders increased from 1,256 to 1,841. Prediction market project Outcome currently accounts for nearly 85% of HIP-4's trading volume, and its $1 million trading incentive program has further driven liquidity growth. Hyperliquid's unified account system allows prediction markets to share the same account environment as perpetual contracts and HIP-3 assets, enabling users to hedge perpetual positions using prediction market contracts. Sports prediction markets could become the primary growth space for HIP-4. Previously, during the World Cup, HIP-4-related markets accumulated a total trading volume of $189.5 million, accounting for approximately 3% of global World Cup prediction market trading volume. The main constraint HIP-4 currently faces is regulatory access, rather than on-chain deployment. The U.S. market falls under regulatory frameworks such as the CFTC and SEC, and sports-related prediction markets in particular may trigger gambling-related regulatory scrutiny.
Outcomexyz accounts for 91% of all Outcome fees
Odaily News: HyperliquidNews posted on X platform stating that Outcomexyz fees account for 91% of all Outcome fees.
Justin Sun Responds to Incident Involving Ms. Jing: Respects Court Procedures, Will Accept Any Outcome
Justin Sun posted that after nineteen years, some things linger as long as they remain unwritten; once set down in words, they may simply vanish. He noted that letting go allows for no shortcuts. One must eventually move out after dwelling somewhere for too long, and moving out requires turning off the lights. He emphasized that the sound of switching off the light, which had startled Ms. Jing, was never his intention, extended his wishes for her well-being, and hoped her days ahead would be untouched by these words.
FOMC Storm Approaches, Huobi HTX to Livestream and Discuss BTC Future Market Trends
According to official social media news, Huobi HTX will host a themed live stream titled "FOMC Tonight Decides the Outcome — 20% Rate Hike Probability Hard to Distinguish: Can BTC's $70,000 Option Bet Still Pay Off?" at 20:00 today. At that time, crypto KOLs such as Mao Mao Jie, Sincere Little Taoist, 0xJoker, and Mr. Misi will be invited to attend, focusing on core variables of market concern on the eve of the FOMC meeting, analyzing the macro signals behind the 20% rate hike probability, discussing the impact of USD liquidity changes on the crypto market, and combining with BTC key option positions to identify short-term market breakouts and risk turning points.
Bonk Guy: Traders Don’t Need to Win Every Trade — One Massive Opportunity Can Change the Outcome
Bonk Guy stated one major mistake many traders make is believing they must win every single trade.He noted that even if a trader loses 90% of their trades, they can still outperform most people, because one massive winning opportunity can wipe out months of losses and completely change the overall outcome.Unipcs added that a trader’s goal is not to win every trade, but to stay in the market long-term and wait to capture the opportunities that truly matter.