News linked to both this project and an event.
Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode have jointly released a market report, maintaining a neutral outlook on the cryptocurrency market for the third quarter of 2026. In the second quarter, the total market capitalization of the crypto market (excluding stablecoins) declined by approximately 12%, while stablecoin supply reached an all-time high. On-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be transitioning from a correction phase to an accumulation phase, characterized by compressed valuations, near-multi-year lows in recent active supply, and the proportion of supply in profit breaking below historical statistical lower bounds—historically corresponding to accumulation rather than distribution zones. However, the macro liquidity environment remains tight, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a hawkish stance under Kevin Warsh's leadership, a strong U.S. dollar, coupled with geopolitical risks, selling pressure from digital asset treasuries, and net outflows from spot BTC and ETH ETFs in the first half of the year (though the pace of outflows has begun to slow), thus overall caution is advised.
According to CoinDesk, Japanese investment bank Mizuho has downgraded stablecoin issuer Circle (CRCL) from "Neutral" to "Underperform," with the price target significantly lowered from $85 to $50. Circle's stock price subsequently fell 0.6% to $62.63. Mizuho analysts pointed out that the OpenUSD stablecoin launched by the Open Standard consortium on June 30 poses a fundamental threat to Circle's business model. Unlike the USDC model, which retains most reserve yield and then shares it with partners such as Coinbase and Binance, OpenUSD charges only a small operating fee and distributes the vast majority of reserve yield to issuers and distributors, which may force Circle's partners to demand a higher revenue share. The consortium has assembled over 140 partners, including Mastercard, Stripe, Coinbase, and BlackRock.
Odaily News, Strive Vice President Joe Burnett posted on X platform, stating that BTC's break-even annualization is often difficult to understand, and it's important to grasp why. The market generally holds three types of views on Bitcoin: Bullish Bitcoin investors believe Bitcoin will appreciate significantly; if they can borrow long-term capital at a cost below 20% and anticipate Bitcoin's future compound annual growth rate will exceed that level, they are willing to finance the purchase of more Bitcoin. Neutral Bitcoin investors require a much lower hurdle rate of return for Bitcoin. According to Michael Saylor's post, if Bitcoin grows by only 3.3% annually, they could sustainably pay current dividends through Bitcoin capital gains. This is a different bet from expecting Bitcoin to grow at a compound rate of over 20%. For context, the historical annual growth rate of the US dollar M2 money supply is around 7%. BTC is a scarce monetary asset with a long-term supply growth rate of 0%. Therefore, buyers of digital credit don't need to be extremely bullish on Bitcoin; they primarily need to believe that Bitcoin won't die out and will roughly keep pace with dollar inflation. This audience is much broader. Joe Burnett stated this might already be the current global consensus view on Bitcoin. Bearish Bitcoin investors can also express their views by shorting Bitcoin or shorting Amplified Bitcoin. Currently, capital has three clear ways to express its view: Bullish on Bitcoin can hold Bitcoin and Amplified Bitcoin; Neutral on Bitcoin can hold Digital Credit; Bearish on Bitcoin can short Bitcoin or Amplified Bitcoin. Every major capital allocator now has a Bitcoin-related tool matching their worldview, and this is how over $1 quadrillion in global capital begins to flow into Bitcoin.
According to CryptoQuant analyst Gaah’s monitoring, the Bitcoin Cycle Momentum indicator has yet to break above the neutral zone (0), clearly signaling the continuation of the bear market. The indicator has currently declined to the -30 level—a range that has historically served as a key cyclical support zone and formed major cycle bottoms on multiple occasions. Analysts note that for a trend reversal to be confirmed, price must first form a bullish pattern, accompanied by the indicator’s effective breakout above the neutral zone.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated on X that the current Global Risk On/Off indicator is neutral. Recent signs of de-escalation in the conflict—potentially linked to statements by relevant leaders—and growing market expectations around SpaceX’s IPO are influencing investor sentiment. It is reported that approximately 372 oil tankers remain stranded in the Persian Gulf, carrying roughly 26 million tons of hydrocarbons. This situation may continue to affect global energy supply expectations and serve as a key variable for market risk sentiment. Currently, risk assets remain in a phase shaped by multiple overlapping factors—including geopolitical developments, shifts in liquidity, and capital market events involving major tech companies—while investors await clearer directional signals.
crypto research firm K33 stated that although Bitcoin has retested its 200-day moving average around $82,000 this month and subsequently fallen by about 6%, the low near $60,000 in February this year may still represent the maximum drawdown of this cycle. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a moderate correction rather than a precursor to another sharp decline.K33 also noted that institutional fund flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F filings show that institutional investors reduced their holdings by a total of approximately 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC. Neutral strategy institutions like Jane Street and Millennium accounted for most of this reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth-largest five-day capital outflow since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC is near the cost basis of ETF holdings, reflecting investors' tendency to cut losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing significant drawdowns. (The Block)
Bitget has announced the launch of Delta-Neutral Mode in its Unified Account. When an account meets predefined delta-neutral conditions, this feature applies a differentiated Auto-Deleveraging (ADL) ranking mechanism to eligible hedged positions, thereby reducing the likelihood of forced liquidation for properly hedged strategies during extreme market conditions. Delta-Neutral Mode enables users to combine spot, cross-margin leveraged trading, and cross-margin perpetual contracts within the Unified Account framework. The system simultaneously assesses directional exposure at both the account and asset levels. This feature supports funding rate arbitrage, basis trading, multi-market hedging strategies, and quantitative neutral strategies.