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According to The Block, the JPMorgan analyst team (led by Managing Director Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou) released a report on July 30 stating that the probability of the "Clarity Act" (Crypto Market Structure Act) passing in the US Senate within the year has dropped to a historic low. The Kalshi prediction market shows a passing probability of only 37%, while Polymarket is even lower at 26%. Analysts pointed out that disagreements on core issues such as ethical provisions, enforcement standards, stablecoin yields, decentralized finance, and illicit finance remain unresolved. Voting is expected to be difficult to complete before the Senate summer recess, and may be postponed until after senators return in mid-September.
analysts at JPMorgan stated that the probability of the U.S. crypto market structure bill, the Clarity Act, passing the Senate by the end of this year has decreased, posing a headwind for the cryptocurrency market. Analysts pointed out that prediction markets show the likelihood of the bill passing this year has dropped to its lowest point of the year, with Kalshi at 37% and Polymarket at 26%.JPMorgan noted that the Senate prioritized other legislative matters before the summer recess. Additionally, unresolved issues such as ethical clauses, enforcement authority, stablecoin yields, DeFi, and illicit finance have made the bill's advancement prospects more uncertain. The bank had previously viewed the Clarity Act as a potential positive catalyst for the crypto market, as it would establish a clearer regulatory framework for the digital asset industry: digital commodities would be regulated by the CFTC, while digital securities would continue to fall under the SEC's jurisdiction.Analysts believe that if the bill is ultimately passed, it would help develop more institutionalized market infrastructure, ease regulatory restrictions on DeFi and stablecoin issuers, boost domestic liquidity and trading volumes in the U.S., and lower the barriers to entry for brokerages, exchanges, market makers, custodians, and bank-related platforms seeking to participate in the crypto industry.
JPMorgan has stated the decreased probability of the Clarity Act passing this year poses an obstacle to the crypto market and institutional adoption. JPMorgan indicated that the legislation would provide regulatory clarity, encouraging banks and asset management firms to expand into the digital asset space. Related delays could shift tokenization towards traditional financial infrastructure rather than public blockchain networks.
据 Decrypt 报道，高盛董事长兼 CEO 大卫·所罗门公开表态支持加密货币市场结构法案（Clarity Act），称其有助于"建立公平竞争环境、提升市场稳定性并推动创新"。此举与摩根大通 CEO 杰米·戴蒙及多家银行业协会的立场明显相左——后者强烈反对法案中允许稳定币提供收益的条款，认为此举将吸走传统银行存款。 目前，参议院共和党人正在流传最新法案草案，新增了限制总统及其家人参与加密业务的伦理条款，但该限制将于 2029 年到期且不适用于特朗普之子，遭民主党批评力度不足。法案能否在八月休会前完成参议院投票，前景仍不明朗。
Goldman Sachs Group CEO David Solomon stated that while the CLARITY Act is not perfect, he supports its advancement, believing it will establish a clearer and fairer regulatory framework for the digital asset market, enhance market stability, and promote innovation.Solomon said the most significant implication of the CLARITY Act is "creating a level playing field, allowing the market to develop healthily." This stance contrasts sharply with that of some banking executives, such as JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon. They argue that the bill, by allowing crypto companies to offer stablecoin products similar to interest-bearing deposits without assuming the same regulatory requirements as banks, could weaken the competitiveness of traditional banks.Currently, Republican senators in the U.S. have released a revised text of the CLARITY Act, which could be submitted to the Senate for a vote as early as next week. The bill aims to clarify the division of responsibilities between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in regulating digital assets, and will continue negotiations on terms related to stablecoin issuance, consumer protection, and yield-bearing stablecoins. (CoinDesk)
According to Reuters, the PayPal board believes the $53 billion acquisition offer ($60.50 per share) jointly proposed by Stripe and private equity firm Advent International undervalues the company, and has concerns regarding regulatory approval risks and financing certainty; it has not yet formally responded to the proposal. The PayPal board believes that if management successfully executes the existing transformation strategy, the company's future potential value will far exceed the current offer. Meanwhile, the acquirers have obtained approximately $50 billion in financing support from JPMorgan Chase and Morgan Stanley, with Stripe and Advent contributing a combined $17 billion in equity. Reportedly, if the parties encounter antitrust hurdles, they may consider divesting assets such as PayPal's Braintree to Advent. Despite differences, Stripe and Advent are still regarded as the most serious potential buyers at present, and negotiations are expected to continue for some time. PayPal will release its quarterly earnings report on July 28, and the market will closely monitor the growth of its core checkout business.
amid growing insider trading concerns surrounding prediction markets, Goldman Sachs has prohibited its employees from trading prediction market contracts related to the bank's own events, elections, financial markets, macroeconomic data, and geopolitics. Financial institutions such as Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America are also formulating or updating relevant policies. Bank of America, in particular, has begun clarifying prohibited practices in prediction market trading to its employees.Previously, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the Department of Justice accused a Google employee of using non-public information to trade "Search of the Year" related contracts on Polymarket, profiting approximately $1.2 million. Legal experts note that the CFTC still lacks well-established case law in enforcing insider trading rules for prediction markets, and the wide variety of prediction market contracts further complicates regulatory oversight.Currently, Kalshi and Polymarket have respectively launched employment verification tools and collaborated with Chainalysis and Palantir to monitor suspicious trading activities. (CNBC)
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts pointed out in their latest report that although Strategy's Bitcoin selling plan has triggered market attention, it is not the core risk facing Bitcoin. The real structural threat lies in the fact that blockchain applications such as tokenization, payments, and settlements are increasingly occurring on permissioned chains (Permissioned Blockchain), rather than on public chains such as Ethereum. If this trend continues, the public chain ecosystem will face issues such as declining liquidity and weakened capital inflows, ultimately dragging down Bitcoin valuations. The analysts also warned that the proliferation of bank-built blockchain infrastructure and tokenized deposits could undermine the position of stablecoins in institutional payments; regulated alternatives such as SWIFT's blockchain plan, the digital euro, and the digital yuan also constitute competitive pressure. However, the analysts also pointed out that if hybrid public-private chain models emerge, stablecoin regulation becomes clearer, or Bitcoin continues to be held as "digital gold", the aforementioned risks may be mitigated.
According to JPMorgan analysts, Michael Saylor’s Strategy recently officially launched a Bitcoin sale policy, transforming the company from a pure BTC buyer into a potential seller, introducing an “avoidable two-way risk” to the crypto market.Strategy’s Bitcoin sale policy, named the BTC Monetization Program, allows the company to sell Bitcoin to raise up to $1.25 billion in cash reserves. These funds will be used to pay preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, or to repurchase preferred and common shares, in order to optimize its capital structure.JPMorgan believes that Strategy’s potential future sale of BTC will increase market uncertainty and volatility regarding the price of Bitcoin. Analysts stated that if the company had instead supplemented its future dividend payment reserves by issuing equity, this risk could have been avoided.Strategy currently has a minimum cash reserve target covering 12 months of preferred stock dividends and interest expenses, with its current cash reserves of $2.55 billion sufficient to cover approximately 17 months of dividends. JPMorgan believes the company should increase its cash reserves to cover 24 to 36 months of related obligations. Even if this results in the common stock trading at a discount to net asset value, it would provide greater assurance to investors that the company will not be forced to sell Bitcoin in the short term.
According to The Block, JPMorgan Chase Co-Head of Global Payments Umar Farooq and CEO of Digital Assets and Blockchain Solutions Peter Muriungi jointly published an article calling for the United States to establish a comprehensive digital asset regulatory framework as soon as possible. The two executives did not directly name the Clarity Act but clearly opposed the legalization of yield-bearing stablecoins, warning they could evolve into "shadow banking," triggering bank run risks and undermining financial stability. The article emphasized that stablecoins should adhere to the same regulatory standards as traditional deposit products, and digital asset innovation should advance within the existing securities and banking rules framework.
According to a report by Forbes, JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon stated that the U.S. crypto market structure bill—the Clarity Act—allows crypto companies to offer deposit-like interest yields on products such as stablecoins, but without corresponding protections; such arrangements “could ultimately collapse,” and he personally will not participate in them. The report notes that disagreements between banks and crypto firms over whether stablecoin accounts may offer interest-like rewards persist, and the likelihood of the Clarity Act passing this year has dropped from nearly 70% to just above 50%. Affected by this uncertainty, Bitcoin recently fell below $76,000.
According to The Block, JPMorgan analysts noted in their latest report that tokenized money market funds currently account for only about 5% of the stablecoin market size and are expected to continue growing—but unless there is a significant shift in the regulatory environment, they are unlikely to surpass a market share ceiling of 10%–15%. The analysts believe stablecoins remain the preferred cash instrument in the crypto ecosystem due to their widespread use in trading, settlement, cross-border payments, and liquidity management. In contrast, tokenized money market funds—classified as securities—are subject to structural regulatory disadvantages, including requirements for registration, disclosure, and transfer restrictions, making them difficult to circulate freely within on-chain ecosystems. Although the U.S. SEC has introduced streamlined processes for issuing on-chain money market funds, JPMorgan analysts view this as only a “marginal improvement,” insufficient to fundamentally alter the market dynamics between these two asset classes.
JPMorgan Chase has filed an application to launch a tokenized money market fund, JLTXX, on the Ethereum blockchain. Officially named the JPMorgan OnChain Liquidity-Token Money Market Fund, this fund will invest exclusively in US Treasuries and overnight repurchase agreements fully collateralized by US Treasuries or cash. It is designed to meet the eligible reserve asset requirements for stablecoin issuers under the GENIUS Act.Last year, JPMorgan launched its first tokenized money market fund, MONY, on Ethereum.
According to CoinDesk, JPMorgan Chase released a research report stating that legislative negotiations for the U.S. CLARITY Act are nearing completion, with contentious issues reduced from over a dozen to just “two or three remaining items.” Discussions regarding stablecoin rewards have also entered a constructive phase. The bill aims to clarify the regulatory framework for digital assets, delineate responsibilities between the SEC and the CFTC, and establish compliance pathways for stablecoins and DeFi platforms. The latest proposal is expected to garner support from both the crypto industry and traditional financial institutions. However, the official text of the bill has not yet been published, nor has a vote been scheduled. Moreover, if Democrats regain control of the House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, the priority for crypto-related legislation may decline, introducing uncertainty into the bill’s progress.
According to CoinDesk, Jeremy Barnum, Chief Financial Officer of JPMorgan Chase, stated during the company’s first-quarter earnings call that stablecoins—offering bank-like products without being subject to regulatory and consumer protection standards equivalent to those applied to bank deposits—could evolve into tools for “regulatory arbitrage.” He emphasized that if stablecoin issuers allow users to earn interest on reserve assets, this would create a business model similar to banking but lacking capital, liquidity, and safeguarding requirements, resulting in unfair competition. Barnum noted that JPMorgan supports the establishment of a clearer U.S. regulatory framework for digital assets and related yield-bearing products, though he stressed that consistency is more important than speed. Currently, JPMorgan is modernizing its payments business through its blockchain division, Kinexys, which has launched JPM Coin and tokenized deposits. Data shows JPMorgan’s net income for the first quarter rose 13% year-on-year to $16.49 billion.
Securitize announced the appointment of Brett Redfearn as President and a member of its Board of Directors. Redfearn previously served as Chair of Securitize’s Advisory Board and has now been elevated to this senior leadership role. He brings extensive experience in regulatory and market structure matters from his prior roles at the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), JPMorgan, and Coinbase. Securitize stated that Redfearn will lead the expansion of its regulated platform businesses—including compliant token issuance, trading, and fund management—and will focus on strengthening collaboration with regulators and institutional investors to support the development of a next-generation, tokenization-based financial infrastructure.