News linked to both this project and an event.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin may have entered a new accumulation zone, but the potential structural bottom for this cycle remains around $48,000. Currently, Bitcoin’s post-adjustment seller risk ratio indicator shows that unprofitable supply is beginning to surpass profitable supply, and unrealized pressure on holders is rising significantly. Meanwhile, the Cumulative Value Destroyed Days (CVDD) valuation model indicates that Bitcoin’s structural bottom for this cycle is approximately $48,000.
According to Odaily, the crypto derivatives contract SPCX, linked to a potential SpaceX IPO, has seen a rebound on the decentralized exchange Hyperliquid, reigniting market expectations for the space company founded by Elon Musk's first day of trading.Data shows that the SPCX contract traded back up to approximately $176 to $183 on Friday, recovering from a dip to around $153 earlier this week. This marks a significant bounce from the roughly $157 level observed when market attention peaked on Wednesday. The contract currently has an open interest of about $216 million, with 24-hour trading volume exceeding $150 million.SPCX does not represent ownership of SpaceX stock, allocation rights, or equity in the company; it is a cash-settled derivative. However, with the SpaceX IPO price set at $135 per share, the market views this contract as a key benchmark for gauging investor expectations of the opening price on the first day of listing.At the current price of around $183, SPCX implies a first-day premium of about 36% for SpaceX. Earlier, in May, the contract surged to $216, corresponding to a roughly 60% premium over the IPO price. When the contract fell to $157 earlier this week, the implied market premium narrowed to about 16%.Meanwhile, other informal market signals also indicate a rebound in investor sentiment. Bloomberg reports that derivatives data from IG International implies a market valuation for SpaceX of approximately $2.4 trillion, which is over 35% higher than the roughly $1.77 trillion valuation implied by the IPO price. Additionally, Polymarket users are currently assigning a 70% probability to SpaceX's market capitalization exceeding $2 trillion at the close of its first trading day.SPCX had previously fallen by about 30% over several weeks, reflecting traders' cautious stance on SpaceX's listing performance. The recent rebound suggests the market is re-pricing the potential for a higher valuation premium from the SpaceX IPO. (CoinDesk)
digital asset platform Gate has released its May 2026 transparency report. The report indicates that multi-asset trading and prediction markets are becoming key growth engines for the platform. As of the end of May, Gate had listed 605 CFD trading assets, covering multiple categories including stocks, indices, forex, metals, and commodities, ranking among the top globally among crypto trading platforms in terms of asset count. Additionally, Gate Stocks allows users to trade over 10,000 US stocks and ETFs from major U.S. markets using USDT, covering the main U.S. securities trading markets and liquidity networks. The platform's direct IPO first-phase project, SpaceX, saw意向 subscription amounts exceed $100 million.Meanwhile, the platform continues to deepen its presence in the prediction market sector. Gate has deeply integrated Polymarket, launching features such as smart money tracking, wallet monitoring, top holdings, profit/loss statistics, and AI analysis. As the first CEX platform to integrate Polymarket, Gate continues to strengthen its advantage as a prediction market gateway, maintaining a leading position in user participation scale, market activity, and ecosystem influence.Furthermore, Gate's flagship event, WCTC S8, successfully concluded in May, attracting over 80,000 participants and 9,500 registered teams. The cumulative total weighted trading volume for the event exceeded $50 billion, with the CFD segment alone accounting for a cumulative trading volume of over $140 billion, reflecting the strong growth momentum of traditional financial assets within crypto trading scenarios. As stablecoins, RWA, asset tokenization, and prediction markets emerge as new growth engines for the industry, Gate will continue to expand its business layout in stocks, forex, and IPOs, aiming to build a comprehensive one-stop global digital financial services platform.
a16z Crypto has published an article explaining the rationale behind leading the investment in Morpho. It points out that credit is a core mechanism for modern economic growth and capital allocation, and that blockchain-driven open credit networks have the potential to lower the cost of financial infrastructure, enhance market competition efficiency, and provide global users with broader financing and yield opportunities. a16z Crypto disclosed that it first engaged with the Morpho team in 2022. Since the global financial crisis, the private credit market has grown rapidly, reflecting the market’s demand for more direct and efficient financing models. Meanwhile, institutions can issue their own lending markets that share the network’s liquidity and network effects. The infrastructure in this area is expected to dismantle traditional financial intermediary systems and build a global open credit network.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that Polymarket has launched a new prediction event: "On the second trading day of SpaceX (ticker: SPCX) on the Nasdaq, will its opening price be greater than or equal to its first-day closing price (i.e., open higher on the second day)?"SpaceX officially submitted its S-1 prospectus on May 20 and is scheduled to list on the Nasdaq on June 12. This IPO breaks tradition by adopting a fixed price of $135 per share, aiming to raise $75 billion, with a valuation of $1.75 trillion. Market traders are divided: positions betting on a higher opening on the second day are mainly supported by Starlink's strong revenue performance and the potential of space-based orbital data centers and computing power from the merger with xAI (restructured as SpaceXAI) in February 2026. Meanwhile, cautious short positions are primarily concerned about its high trailing price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 90x, the significant losses from its AI business, and the amplifying effect of Musk's dual-class share structure on stock price volatility in the early stages of listing.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor the prediction market, seeing the changes before the price is set.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $60,000 last week, recording its worst single-week performance since the collapse of the FTX exchange in 2022. In the seven days through Sunday, Bitcoin accumulated a decline of 16%, retreating over 50% from its all-time high of over $126,000 in 2025.Multiple market analysts have warned that the current rebound may be difficult to sustain, and Bitcoin may not have reached the bottom of this cycle yet. Griffin Ardern, co-founder of Primal Fund, stated that the market is still "a considerable distance" from a "true bottom."Data shows that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded net outflows for 13 consecutive trading days, with total outflows reaching approximately $5.5 billion. Meanwhile, Bitcoin last week fell below the 200-week moving average, widely regarded as a key support level, further weakening market confidence. Paul Howard, a senior executive at crypto trading firm Wincent, described the current market conditions as a "silent bear market," arguing that breaking below the 200-week moving average is a significant confirmation signal that the market has entered a bear phase.Analysts point out that the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, the reversal of expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and strong U.S. employment data are driving the market to reassess the rate path. A high-interest-rate environment is unfavorable for the performance of risk assets, including crypto assets. Additionally, some capital is flowing out of the crypto market into artificial intelligence and technology stock sectors.Despite this, the magnitude of the current correction is still smaller than historical bear market cycles. In past bear markets, Bitcoin typically retraced about 80% from its peak, whereas this cycle's decline is approximately 50%. Some traders believe that if the macroeconomic environment continues to deteriorate and companies holding large amounts of Bitcoin face financing pressures, the market still faces further downside risks in the future. (Bloomberg)
According to an independent analyst report by Markus Thielen on June 9, just days remain before SpaceX’s IPO, and market expectations continue to intensify. There is currently little indication that SpaceX will raise its expected offering price of $135, suggesting the targeted fundraising amount of $7.5 billion has already been substantially subscribed. Meanwhile, pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts tied to SpaceX are trading at $157 on Hyperliquid and $169 on Binance—both significantly above the expected offering price—with implied valuations on both platforms approaching $2 trillion. Although prices have retreated from earlier highs near $200, prediction markets still assign a 68% probability that SpaceX’s valuation will exceed $2 trillion by year-end, reflecting traders’ broad expectation of a strong IPO performance.
BIT Group posted on X platform, stating that with only days remaining until the SpaceX IPO, market expectations are heating up, with a general consensus that the stock is likely to perform well post-listing. Unlike many recent IPOs, there are currently few signs that SpaceX will raise its offering price, indicating that the target fundraising amount of $75 billion has already received fairly sufficient subscription coverage.Meanwhile, SpaceX-related pre-IPO synthetic perpetual contracts are trading at around $157 on Hyperliquid (calculated based on the old 11.9 billion share count) and quoting $169 on Binance, both significantly higher than the expected IPO price of $135. Although prices have fallen from around $200 a few days ago and undergone a repricing, the current implied valuations on both platforms still approach nearly $2 trillion, indicating that traders still anticipate a strong market debut for SpaceX. Prediction markets are also leaning towards optimism, with the current probability of SpaceX's valuation exceeding $2 trillion by the end of the year standing at 68%.
Odaily News, CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin's price has retraced approximately 20% over the past month, with two key on-chain indicators showing sustained market sentiment pressure. Among them, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score has dropped from 0.95 a month ago to 0.32, far below the historical average of 1.71, indicating that the previous valuation premium has largely been digested and the market has entered a range more conducive to long-term accumulation.Meanwhile, Bitcoin's 7-day simple moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss has been in negative territory for 22 consecutive days, meaning the market has been completing transactions at a loss since May 18. The indicator hit a low of approximately -$1.2 billion on June 6 and has since slightly recovered to around -$1.1 billion. Although market pressure is evident, it remains below the extreme levels of approximately -$2.2 billion seen during the 2022 bear market capitulation phase.Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that currently, a large number of holders are selling Bitcoin below their cost basis, reflecting significant market fear and capitulation sentiment. However, the MVRV Z-score remains above 0, suggesting that the market has not yet entered a deeply undervalued zone, nor has it presented a historically significant value trough.He believes that combining these two indicators, while market sentiment is relatively weak, valuations have clearly cooled down. Going forward, key focus points will be whether the Net Realized Profit/Loss can return above the zero line and whether the MVRV Z-score can maintain a positive value. If the MVRV Z-score falls below 0, or realized losses move closer to the extreme levels of 2022 once again, it could signal the onset of a deeper phase of market capitulation.
: AI startup Moonshot AI is seeking to raise up to $2 billion in a new funding round, which would value the company at $30 billion. Moonshot AI has already entered early-stage talks with potential investors and plans to raise over $1 billion. Meanwhile, the company is nearing the completion of a funding round led by Meituan, which values it at $2 billion.As of April, Moonshot AI's annualized recurring revenue had exceeded $200 million, driven by increased demand for its Kimi chatbot and large language model. Additionally, the company is dismantling its offshore structure to pave the way for an initial public offering in Hong Kong, and plans to establish a joint venture structure to allow foreign capital to participate. The company recently launched Kimi Work, a general-purpose AI agent based on its K2.6 series model. (Bloomberg)
According to an investigation by on-chain detective ZachXBT, Rain Protocol ($RAIN), a prediction market project with a market cap of approximately $8.8 billion, faces serious risks. ZachXBT traced on-chain addresses and found that RAIN’s team funding is linked to the Gems hot wallet. The same addresses previously transferred funds simultaneously for the failed projects DOP and TOMI—suggesting possible team overlap. TOMI, DOP, and Sirin Labs all trace back to controversial Israeli businessman Moshe Hogeg, who was detained in 2021 for crypto-related fraud and charged by police in 2023 with orchestrating a $290 million cryptocurrency fraud scheme. Additionally, $RAIN’s token price appears to be manipulated on-chain; its Total Value Locked (TVL) consists almost entirely of its own highly illiquid native token, and its annual fee revenue amounts to only about $1 million. Gems.vip—the launchpad that incubated these projects—is reportedly preparing a new presale for Kai Platform. Meanwhile, DOP’s previously raised $162 million remains unaccounted for, prompting ongoing complaints from retail investors.
According to the Central Bank of Russia’s “Financial Stability Review,” Russian private investors currently hold approximately 3.8 billion rubles in cryptocurrency-linked financial instruments—a figure nearly unchanged from 3.7 billion rubles six months earlier—indicating stagnation in market interest growth. Of this amount, 1.7 billion rubles flowed into crypto-linked corporate bonds; 5,600 investors collectively held cryptocurrency futures positions worth 1.7 billion rubles; and roughly 3,800 investors allocated 354 million rubles to digital financial assets pegged to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Major issuers include large banks such as Sber and VTB. Meanwhile, the Moscow Exchange has progressively launched Bitcoin and Ethereum futures, along with related ETFs, and will introduce Solana, Ripple, and TRON futures in May 2026.
“New Stock God” Serenity posted on X, seemingly responding to the potential investigation into Sivers, stating that Sivers (SIVE) should fully transform into a U.S. company, with Nasdaq listing as the first step—given that the company already possesses a U.S. capital structure, a significant equity stake, and support under the CHIPS Act. Such a transformation would deliver higher valuation premiums and M&A opportunities. Meanwhile, negative reporting by Swedish local media—allegedly influenced by short sellers—is hindering the development of AI photonics, whereas the U.S. market offers greater financing opportunities and support from institutions, funds, and indices.
According to Finance Feeds, Grayscale is in talks with Hyper Holdings Global LP to sell its proposed Hyperliquid ETF shares in exchange for approximately 2 million HYPE tokens—valued at roughly $115 million at current prices—as seed capital ahead of the fund’s listing. Meanwhile, Grayscale has renamed the product the “Grayscale Hyperliquid Staking ETF,” planning to list it on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol HYPG. The addition of staking functionality distinguishes it from spot ETFs that merely track token price performance.
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, the Anthropic contract deployed by Hyperliquid on Ventuals is currently trading at $1,471 (implying a valuation of approximately $1.48 trillion). Meanwhile, per today’s news, Anthropic’s post-money valuation following its Series H funding round stands at $965 billion. This means that long positions on this contract are betting on a bullish outcome priced roughly $515 billion above the official valuation—representing a ~53% premium over the primary-market valuation.
BIT Official released a chart analysis stating that the crypto market has already begun pricing in the SpaceX IPO ahead of time.The chart shows that SpaceX plans to IPO on June 12 with a valuation of approximately $1.74 trillion, nearly 40% higher than its latest internal valuation of $1.25 trillion. Currently, Hyperliquid and Binance have successively launched SpaceX-related perpetual contracts, with the implied valuation corresponding to the relevant market price standing at approximately $2.41 trillion.Markus Thielen believes this indicates the market is betting that SpaceX will complete its IPO at a higher valuation or deliver a strong performance after listing. Meanwhile, he pointed out that the launch of such contract products also reflects the deepening integration of the crypto market with traditional finance, as crypto trading platforms gradually expand their trading exposure to stocks and popular primary market themes.
Odaily reports: Bitget has announced the launch of Reality, a licensed financial protocol focused on the tokenization of Real World Assets (RWA). The issued tokenized stocks (rTokens) are strictly pegged 1:1 to the underlying US stocks, with assets custodied at a US securities broker-dealer that is FINRA-registered and SIPC-protected. Real-time proof of reserves is provided through third-party independent audits. By directly accessing liquidity pools from Nasdaq, NYSE, and other US stock exchanges, Reality's stock tokens can achieve liquidity on par with traditional brokerages. Meanwhile, stock dividends will be distributed 1:1 to user accounts in token form, cash dividends will be automatically converted into USDT for distribution, and stock splits and reverse splits will be mapped to on-chain tokens in real-time, offering an experience highly consistent with holding US stocks.Furthermore, the US stock tokens launched by Reality are deeply integrated with the Bitget ecosystem. They can be used, for example, as margin for unified accounts and are compatible with core product lines such as grid trading, copy trading systems, and staking/lending.Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, previously proposed the "10% Vision": Currently, tokenized stocks represent only 0.1% of the $125 trillion global stock market. She predicts this proportion will rise to nearly 10% by 2030. Reality is built on this trend. In its initial phase, it will focus on US stocks, and will later expand asset classes, driving the extension of Bitget's UEX strategy into a broader access layer for global financial assets.
According to Fortune magazine, Antonio Gracias, founder of Valor Equity Partners and a close confidant of Elon Musk, stands to amass over $100 billion in wealth from SpaceX’s anticipated IPO. Valor reportedly holds more than 500 million shares of SpaceX’s Class A stock. If SpaceX goes public at the rumored valuation of $1.75 trillion to $2 trillion, the value of Valor’s stake could reach $90 billion to $140 billion. Meanwhile, related-party transactions totaling approximately $20 billion between SpaceX and Valor have sparked corporate governance concerns. Documents reveal that xAI-related subsidiaries under SpaceX signed three GPU infrastructure leasing agreements with Valor, all backed by payment guarantees from SpaceX. PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC), the auditing firm, contends that these transactions are substantively closer to loans than standard sale-and-leaseback arrangements and has therefore required that roughly $9 billion in associated debt be recorded on SpaceX’s balance sheet.
Hyperliquid has recently significantly outperformed the broader market. Its token, HYPE, hit an all-time high following the launch of two related ETFs in the United States. Meanwhile, European traders are accelerating their migration to the platform due to restricted access to perpetual contracts on regulated exchanges. Market analyst Michael van de Poppe stated that with Hyperliquid's continued rally and renewed interest in AI-related crypto projects, signs of improving risk appetite are emerging in the altcoin market. Hyperliquid’s expansion into tokenized stocks, commodities, and pre-IPO assets is strengthening the on-chain asset tokenization trend. He suggested that if market sentiment continues to improve, HYPE’s price could target $100 or even higher.However, Michael van de Poppe also stressed that while Hyperliquid holds a short-term advantage, Solana offers greater long-term investment certainty, transitioning from a "speculative ecosystem" to institutional-grade infrastructure. In the AI track, he noted that NEAR Protocol and Bittensor remain significantly undervalued, citing a disconnect between their fundamental growth and valuations. He pointed out that NEAR’s revenue growth potential and Bittensor’s subnet expansion could support higher valuation ranges. Additionally, he indicated that the privacy sector retains long-term demand, but fully anonymous systems face regulatory pressure. The future is more likely to be dominated by zero-knowledge proofs and compliant privacy solutions.On the macro level, Michael van de Poppe highlighted that bond yields and central bank policies remain the core drivers of the crypto market, with changes in Japanese government bond yields potentially serving as a key barometer. (CoinDesk)
According to The Block, Foundation, a Bitcoin hardware wallet manufacturer, has raised $6.4 million in funding. The round was led by Fulgur Ventures, with participation from Arche Capital. The company plans to accelerate its expansion from Bitcoin self-custody wallets into identity authentication, multi-factor authentication (MFA), and AI agent authorization. Following this round, Foundation’s total funding has reached $16.5 million. Meanwhile, Foundation has announced the full commercial launch of its flagship device, the Passport Prime, and opened its KeyOS platform SDK to developers. The device integrates a Bitcoin hardware wallet, FIDO security key, 2FA storage, secure vault, and 50 GB of encrypted storage.