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Analysis: Bitcoin Falls Back Below $81,000 After Failing to Break the 200-Day Moving Average, Historical Trend Sparks Market Caution

Bitcoin briefly approached the key 200-day simple moving average (SMA) around $83,300 on Wednesday but failed to achieve a decisive breakout, subsequently falling back below $81,000. Meanwhile, the broader crypto market weakened, with the CoinDesk Smart Contract Platform Index falling over 2% in the past 24 hours, making it the worst-performing major sector. The 200-day moving average is widely regarded by the market as a key indicator for measuring long-term trends. If BTC can hold above this level, it would further reinforce the market narrative that the bear market, which saw prices fall below $63,000 in February, has ended and a new bull market has begun.However, a similar situation occurred historically in March 2022, when Bitcoin briefly broke above and tested the 200-day moving average before ultimately falling to around $20,000 by June of that year. As a result, some analysts are warning of the risk of a "fakeout."Analytics firm Marex stated that Bitcoin's ability to continue its upward trajectory depends on three factors: sustained spot buying pressure, a continued tightening of exchange supply, and a derivatives market that remains healthy without overheating. If all three factors align positively, Bitcoin could quickly open up the path towards the $85,000 range. Alex Kuptsikevich, Chief Market Analyst at FxPro, noted that this pullback appears more like a brief consolidation within an uptrend rather than an end to the trend. However, he also cautioned that the daily RSI had previously entered overbought territory, and similar instances in the past were accompanied by significant corrections.Additionally, the 10-year US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.32% from its early-month high of 4.46%, which is viewed as a potential positive factor for risk assets. (CoinDesk)

ZachXBT Accuses LAB Founder of Engaging in CEX Market Manipulation and Harming Retail Investors

On-chain investigator ZachXBT stated that LAB’s founders engaged in CEX market manipulation while issuing “philosophical” statements—actions that harmed retail investors. ZachXBT noted he had attempted to contact them privately, but received no response. He added that such “scammer” behavior is further eroding the crypto industry’s already dwindling public trust.

ZachXBT: LAB Founder's Involvement in CEX Market Manipulation Harms Retail Investors

ZachXBT posted on X platform, stating that the LAB founder spouts philosophical nonsense while engaging in CEX market manipulation that harms retail investors. He previously attempted to contact them privately, but the messages were read and ignored. Scammers further undermine the remaining credibility of the industry.

BNY Expands Crypto Custody Business to Abu Dhabi, Initially Supporting BTC and ETH

According to The Block, BNY announced the expansion of its crypto custody business into the Abu Dhabi Global Market (ADGM) in the UAE through partnerships with Finstreet and the ADI Foundation, offering institutional clients crypto-asset custody services. Initially, the service will support custody for BTC and ETH. The three parties will subsequently explore extending these services to the ADI Foundation’s underlying blockchain infrastructure and gradually expand to stablecoins, tokenized real-world assets, and other regulated digital instruments.

StepStone Launches Evergreen Strategy on LSEG’s Digital Market Infrastructure Platform, Covering Assets Including Private Equity

StepStone Group announced its integration with LSEG’s Digital Market Infrastructure (DMI) platform and the launch of its evergreen strategies—covering private equity, private debt, and infrastructure—on the platform. DMI is embedded within LSEG Workspace and leverages distributed ledger technology to support private fund distribution, optimizing private market access for professional investors. This collaboration builds on the parties’ existing relationship, which includes the joint launch in October 2025 of the FTSE StepStone Global Private Markets Index.

WEEX Launches TradFi Market, Introducing 0% Fee Trading for Gold, Crude Oil, and U.S. Stocks

WEEX Exchange has officially launched its TradFi market, offering one-stop direct access to over 90 traditional financial assets—including U.S. equities, precious metals, and commodities. To lower the barrier to cross-market trading, WEEX has extended its “Zero-Fee Gold, Crude Oil, and U.S. Equity Futures” promotion until May 31. During this period, both makers and takers enjoy zero trading fees on these futures contracts, empowering crypto users to engage with global financial markets at zero cost.

Yunfeng Youyu, a subsidiary of Yunfeng Financial Group, officially launches its “Physical Gold Token” product.

According to an official announcement by Yunfeng Financial, Yunfeng Financial (HKEX: 00376) has officially launched its “Physical Gold Token” product on its Yunfeng Youyu platform, with underlying blockchain and asset tokenization infrastructure support provided by AlphaToken. Each unit of the product corresponds to 1 gram of physical gold certified by the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) with a purity of 99.99%. The underlying assets are held in professional vaults accredited for international operations and subject to independent audits. The product’s value is directly linked to the international gold market price. This product is available exclusively to users who have completed Professional Investor (PI) qualification certification.

Senator Gillibrand: The cryptocurrency regulatory bill will not pass without an ethics provision.

According to The Block, Senator Kirsten Gillibrand stated clearly on Wednesday at the Consensus Miami conference that she would not support the Cryptocurrency Market Structure Act unless it includes an ethics provision. She emphasized that members of Congress, the President, the Vice President, and senior executive branch officials must not profit from the industry by virtue of their insider status, bluntly declaring, “Without this provision, corruption will destroy this industry.” Previously, before the presidential inauguration, both Donald Trump and his wife launched meme coins. Their family-led DeFi and stablecoin project, World Liberty Financial, has also sparked widespread controversy. Bloomberg estimates that Trump has already earned at least $1.4 billion from cryptocurrency-related businesses.

QCP: BTC Reclaims $80,000+, But Options Market Has Yet to Confirm the Breakout

QCP’s market analysis notes that with Trump pausing “Project Freedom,” the geopolitical risk premium has receded, leading to lower oil prices, higher U.S. equities, and a weaker U.S. dollar—BTC has rebounded above $80,000, reflecting improved liquidity, a softer dollar, and rising risk appetite as a high-beta asset. However, the options market has not yet confirmed a full breakout: the one-month at-the-money implied volatility stands at approximately 41%, front-end volatility is weakening, and the 30-day risk reversal remains in a relatively elevated put-protective state at around −5.5 volatility points. QCP also cautions that Japan’s markets are emerging as a new macro stress point; further yen weakness and rising Japanese government bond yields could marginally tighten global liquidity. Currently, BTC needs to sustainably break above the $82,000–$83,000 range.

Taurus Secures Cyprus MiFID II License to Offer Tokenized Financial Instruments Services in the EU

According to CoinDesk, cryptocurrency custody provider Taurus has obtained a MiFID II investment license from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC), enabling it to offer tokenized financial instrument services to EU banks and asset management firms, and supporting secondary trading of tokenized bonds, fund shares, equities, and structured products. Additionally, Taurus already holds a license from the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA), and its application under the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) is underway.

Bubblemaps: MYSTERY—Potential Market Manipulation, with a Small Number of Wallets Controlling 90% of the Token Supply

On X, on-chain analytics platform Bubblemaps stated that the token MYSTERY may have exhibited highly centralized control during its initial launch phase, describing it as a “textbook scam.” Bubblemaps disclosed data showing that approximately 90 newly created wallets seized roughly 90% of the token’s supply at launch and have since continuously dumped their holdings—generating over $100,000 in proceeds so far, while still retaining about 40% of the total supply. Additionally, the token’s launch featured clear “bundled distribution” and centralized control characteristics, and some KOLs promoting MYSTERY were reportedly paid to do so.

Jito to Launch Trading App JTX, Entering the Consumer Market

According to Fortune, Jito—a Solana ecosystem infrastructure project—is set to launch JTX, a user-facing trading application, in July, officially entering the consumer trading market. Initially, the app will support spot trading, with plans to later integrate perpetual contracts and prediction market functionality. Lucas Bruder, Jito’s CEO, stated that the company is no longer relying solely on third parties building products atop its infrastructure, but is instead proactively expanding into end-user applications. Jito previously secured a $50 million investment from venture capital firm a16z Crypto in 2025.

Polygon Launches Privacy-Preserving Stablecoin Payment Feature Targeting Institutional Market

According to Cointelegraph, Ethereum scaling solution Polygon announced on Sunday the launch of a privacy-focused stablecoin payment feature to attract more enterprises and institutions to use its network. This feature routes transactions through wallets to shielded pools, with zero-knowledge proofs handling verification—it forms part of Polygon’s integration with privacy protocol Hinkal.

Ansem: Current Market Conditions Resemble "Altseason," But the Focus Has Shifted to Stock Assets

Ansem posted on X platform, stating that the current market trend resembles "altseason," but the capital's focus has shifted from crypto altcoins to stock assets that support 24-hour perpetual contract trading. These trades are primarily concentrated on the Tradexyz platform.

Although Cursor has accepted SpaceX’s $60 billion acquisition offer, it will not currently collaborate with xAI to develop coding models.

According to The Information, sources familiar with the matter said that although Cursor has previously accepted SpaceX’s conditional $60 billion acquisition offer (which has not yet been finalized), the company currently has no plans to jointly develop a coding model with xAI, SpaceX’s AI division. Instead, Cursor is focusing on optimizing its in-house model, Composer—which is partially powered by the Chinese AI model Kimi. Market expectations had previously suggested that, if the deal were completed, Cursor might engage in deep collaboration with xAI to develop programming models. However, the latest developments indicate that the company will continue pursuing an independent technical path in the near term.

“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: Market Misreads Trump’s “Project Freedom”; Real Risks May Just Be Beginning

Garrett Jin, agent representing the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that Trump’s launch of the so-called “Project Freedom” is not a de-risking signal, but is more likely to act as a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Multiple factors are converging, including energy inventory pressures, enhanced regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic pathways. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals, but their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risks. Overall, investors are advised to maintain a cautious and hedging mindset, paying close attention to the potential disruption of market sentiment by macroeconomic and geopolitical variables.Although the market has interpreted this move as a sign of easing tensions, driving risk assets higher, the underlying structure is more akin to a strategic framework of “limited engagement plus potential response.” The action primarily maintains shipping security through coordinated shipping lanes, insurance support, and military standby, rather than direct escort operations. This approach could, in fact, amplify reactions to specific triggering events.

“1011 Insider Whale” Agent: Trump’s “Freedom Plan” Could Be a Risk Trigger, and the Market May Be Underestimating Potential Volatility

Garrett Jin, the agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” authored an analysis stating that Trump’s so-called “Project Freedom” is not a signal of risk mitigation but rather a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Although the market interprets it as a de-escalation and has driven risk assets higher, its underlying structure more closely resembles a “limited engagement + potential response” strategic framework. This initiative primarily maintains maritime security through coordination of shipping lanes, insurance support, and military readiness—rather than direct naval escort—potentially amplifying market reactions once triggered by specific events. Meanwhile, multiple factors—including energy inventory pressures, heightened regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic channels—are converging. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals; however, their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risk. Overall, investors are advised to maintain caution and adopt hedging strategies, closely monitoring how macroeconomic and geopolitical variables could potentially disrupt market sentiment.

Kraken’s parent company completes acquisition of Bitnomial, expanding its presence in the U.S. crypto derivatives market

According to The Block, Payward, Kraken’s parent company, has announced the completion of its acquisition of Chicago-based crypto-native exchange Bitnomial, thereby obtaining a full suite of U.S. derivatives licenses from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), including Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), Designated Contract Market (DCM), and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) licenses. Payward stated that it will first launch spot margin trading on Kraken, followed by perpetual contracts and options products, all available to eligible U.S. customers. This acquisition will also provide partners—including banks, brokers, and payment service providers—with a channel to offer U.S. derivatives to their end customers. Bitnomial will operate independently under Payward while retaining its existing licenses and regulatory framework. The transaction’s value is reported to be up to $550 million, comprising cash and stock, implying a valuation for Payward of approximately $20 billion; however, the final terms have not been disclosed.

Kraken parent company Payward completes Bitnomial acquisition, officially enters the U.S. crypto derivatives market

Payward (Kraken’s parent company) has announced the completion of its acquisition of Bitnomial, marking its official entry into the U.S. crypto derivatives market with full regulatory credentials. Following the transaction, Payward now holds a comprehensive set of U.S. CFTC licenses, including Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), Designated Contract Market (DCM), and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO) status, enabling it to launch compliant derivatives services in the U.S. market.Payward stated that it will gradually roll out spot margin trading under the Kraken brand, followed by plans to launch perpetual contracts and options products, while expanding institutional-grade derivatives capabilities through the Bitnomial framework. It is reported that Bitnomial, as a Chicago-based native crypto derivatives trading platform, has long held the three core CFTC licenses and has been relatively aggressive in listing new assets. After the transaction, it will retain its existing licenses and regulatory framework, continuing operations within the Payward system.Additionally, this acquisition continues Payward’s recent expansion moves: the company had previously secured a $200 million investment from Deutsche Börse Group and filed IPO-related documents with the U.S. SEC, signaling its accelerated push into globally compliant derivatives and capital market pathways. (The Block)

U.S. CFTC’s Request for Comments on Prediction Market Rules Has Received Over 1,500 Responses, Revealing Clear Industry Divisions

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has received over 1,500 public comments on its proposed rules for prediction markets, reflecting intensifying regulatory discussion in this space. Platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi have expressed support for the proposed regulatory framework, viewing it as conducive to industry standardization and development. However, some stakeholders have called for stricter regulation and enforcement measures to mitigate potential risks. Market analysts note that this comment period highlights substantial disagreement regarding the compliance boundaries, product classification, and regulatory positioning of prediction markets. The finalization of these rules may thus become a pivotal factor shaping the industry’s future development.