News linked to both this project and an event.
According to monitoring by Axel Adler Jr, as of July 21, the Bitcoin supply concentration indicator, the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI), reached 1116.1, surpassing 89.6% of historical observations over the past decade. The index has risen by 5.5% in the last 90 days and accumulated an increase of 10.1% over the past 180 days.The uniformity of Bitcoin distribution continues to decline, with coins concentrated among holders within specific holding periods. The upward trend is primarily driven by coins held for 6 to 12 months. Within 90 days, the proportion of coins held for 6 to 12 months increased from 12.9% to 19.3%, while the share held for 3 to 6 months decreased from 14.3% to 6.3%. Long-term holders holding for over a decade account for 17.7% of the total supply.This shift represents the natural aging of coins, transitioning from the 3 to 6-month holding period to the 6 to 12-month period, rather than a new wave of large-scale accumulation. Currently, 81.6% of all Bitcoin has not moved for over six months, and 62.3% has remained idle for more than a year.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that after Bitcoin fell below $60,000 in February this year and the MVRV percentile dropped below 10% into the "capitulation zone", this situation has appeared again since June.
According to monitoring by ScenarioX, an analyst at on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant, Bitcoin's 30-day spot demand has deteriorated again to nearly -170,000 BTC after briefly rebounding to approximately -80,000 BTC in early July. Despite the significant decline in spot demand, the BTC price currently remains relatively stable, supported by eased short-term selling pressure and short covering in the derivatives market. ScenarioX noted that current derivatives demand is insufficient to support a sustained upward trend on its own, and the overall market structure is relatively fragile. If spot selling pressure reignites, it may trigger a sharp downturn; if spot selling remains sluggish, a derivatives-driven technical rebound may continue, but in the absence of substantial spot demand support, such rebounds will most likely end with large-scale long liquidations.
ARK Invest's "The Bitcoin Quarterly" report for Q2 2026 indicates Bitcoin fell approximately 14% in the second quarter, closing around $58,544, and broke below three major technical moving averages. Historically, this technical pattern is often associated with bearish market conditions. The report shows that despite price pressure, Bitcoin Long-term Holders continued to accumulate, pushing their holdings to a new all-time high of approximately 14.85 million BTC, absorbing coins released during the market correction.ARK Invest stated that on-chain data is signaling signs of seller exhaustion: the supply of BTC in loss exceeds the supply in profit, and the rate of realized losses once surpassed the rate of realized profits. Historically, similar phenomena have often clustered near the bottom of market cycles.The report also pointed out that institutional demand in the Bitcoin market is facing pressure. Both corporate Bitcoin reserves (Treasury Companies) and the ETF ecosystem have shown signs of weakness:The STRC preferred stock price once fell to approximately $74.57, below its $100 par value;U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows for 7 consecutive weeks, with cumulative outflows totaling approximately 70,000 BTC.ARK Invest believes that ETF outflows indicate a weakening of important marginal buying pressure for Bitcoin, but continued accumulation by long-term holders suggests a redistribution of coins is occurring within the market.The firm stated that a clear divergence is currently forming between BTC's price performance and the behavior of long-term holders. Historical data shows that such divergences can often serve as important observation signals for market cycle turning points.
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.
on-chain analytics firm Glassnode stated that top traders on decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid are heavily long on Bitcoin, with their sustained long position reaching the highest level since the platform's records began, surpassing the level seen during Bitcoin's previous rally to approximately $83,000. Glassnode noted that this position indicates strong speculative demand at the current price level. Hyperliquid is a decentralized derivatives exchange where traders can trade leveraged perpetual contracts with no expiry date on-chain. A Bitcoin whale on Hyperliquid has recently pushed net long positions to a year-to-date high. Glassnode's weekly report shows that despite Bitcoin's price decline in June, accumulation has continued; Bitcoin has recently reclaimed the $65,000 level.
according to Lookonchain monitoring, after suffering significant losses from shorting Hyperliquid's HYPE, whale Loracle has reopened new positions today, establishing a fresh trading strategy.It is reported that loracle.hl previously shorted HYPE, accumulating a total loss of approximately $46.46 million. Subsequently, the trader opened new positions, including going long on SKHX and shorting crude oil (#oil).His overall trading performance experienced drastic fluctuations. The account's profit and loss once peaked at around $42.87 million in gains, then reversed to a loss of $17.27 million, and currently has returned to an overall profitable state of about $2.06 million.
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders are gradually transferring holdings to a new round of buyers. Glassnode's RHODL Ratio began to decline after reaching a historical second-high of 6.5 in early July and has now fallen below 6, but the Bitcoin price remains trading sideways around the $60,000 range, with no significant panic selling observed.
Odaily Odaily News According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, Binance Futures smart money trader "Yu yu m" has an unrealized loss of $2.091 million on its long positions, topping the 3D loss leaderboard. It holds 7,462.68 SKHX, worth $11.03 million, with an entry price of $1,477.89, resulting in an unrealized loss of $1.954 million; and holds 25,733.63 SKHY, worth $4.045 million, with an entry price of $157.22, resulting in an unrealized loss of $137,000. Its margin is sufficient, with liquidation prices at $756 and $27.59 respectively, and there is currently no risk of forced liquidation.
Odaily Odaily News: Citrini analyst jukan posted on X platform that KIS Semicon analyst Minsook Chae expects SK Hynix's operating profit for the second quarter of 2026 to be 60.4 trillion Korean won, up 61% quarter-on-quarter and 556% year-on-year, which is 8% lower than the market consensus of 65 trillion Korean won.The analyst stated that the lowered expectations are mainly due to SK Hynix's higher proportion of HBM sales compared to peers, lower-than-expected price increases for general DRAM, and the stabilization of ASP (Average Selling Price) driven by Long-Term Supply Agreements (LTAs). The forecast for the quarter-on-quarter growth rate of the comprehensive DRAM ASP in Q2 2026 has been lowered to 28.9%, down from the previous 50.0%; the growth rate for commodity DRAM ASP has been reduced to 34.2%, down from the previous 60.6%. With the mass production of HBM4 officially commencing in the third quarter of 2026, the comprehensive ASP growth rate is expected to return to an average market level of approximately 10% quarter-on-quarter.However, the analyst believes this adjustment does not signal a downturn for the industry. The recent revision is a more realistic reflection of the 3 to 5-year LTA structure and is expected to lead to more stable long-term profit growth. The year-on-year operating profit growth rates for the fiscal years 2026 through 2028 are projected to be 419%, 53%, and 19%, respectively.
According to a post by Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), Head of Research at Galaxy Research, metrics related to Bitcoin long-term holders have all reached all-time highs: Supply held for ≥10 years accounts for 17.7% Long-term holder holdings reach 16.75 million coins Long-term holder Realized Market Cap reaches $836.4 billion Long-term holder average cost basis reaches $50,000 The above data indicates that a large amount of holdings are firmly locked by long-term holders; even though the average price has reached $50,000, they refuse to sell. The market's actual circulating supply continues to tighten, and long-term holder behavior is building solid bottom support for Bitcoin prices.
According to The Block, Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin has been trading below the realized market mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200) for five consecutive months, marking one of the longest deep value periods in its history. Daily average realized losses for long-term holders reached $280 million, the highest since December 2022, accounting for 43% of the total on-chain realized value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84.86 million on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows. In terms of derivatives, the options open interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, while perpetual funding rates remained below neutral levels, indicating the market overall holds a cautiously bullish positioning. In terms of geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed, and the U.S. Central Command carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran, causing Bitcoin's weekly gains to narrow from 9.4% to approximately 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued cooling of long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and the price reclaiming the realized market mean are the three prerequisite conditions for the market to enter a bull market.
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.
Glassnode's latest weekly report points out that after Bitcoin fell below $60,000, market sentiment remains suppressed by continuous net outflows from US spot Bitcoin ETFs, defensive options hedging, and expectations of macro tightening. However, on-chain data shows that long-term holders have resumed accumulation, with multiple wallet size groups absorbing supply simultaneously, indicating that some high-conviction capital is gradually absorbing selling pressure.
10x Research published an analysis noting that US employment data stronger than expected temporarily caused Bitcoin price volatility, and ETF fund outflows also exacerbated selling pressure. However, active buying from long-term holders helped form price support for the market. Meanwhile, weak employment data also led the market to delay its expectation for the next rate hike from October 2026 to December, providing certain support for Bitcoin's short-term trend. 10x Research added that historical data shows July has always been a month where Bitcoin performs relatively strongly, with an average gain of 9.1%. However, the market usually enters a consolidation phase from August to September, and September might become the low point of this cycle. Bitcoin recently rebounded from $58,500 to $61,500, which may be providing new positioning opportunities for traders.
Bitcoin rebounded above $61,000 on Thursday, recovering from 21-month lows hit earlier this week, showing signs of stabilization following a period of high volatility. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of approximately $296 million on July 1, extending the trend of capital exodus. June alone saw outflows of about $4.5 billion, marking one of the worst months on record. Among them, the Grayscale Bitcoin Mini Trust ETF led with a single-day net inflow of $36.3 million.On-chain data indicates that long-term holders have re-entered an accumulation phase after an extended period of distribution, with buying pressure increasing from addresses holding 100–1000 BTC. Currently, approximately 10.83 million BTC are in a state of unrealized loss, surpassing the 9.22 million BTC that are in profit. Glassnode analyst Chris Beamish noted that the Coinbase order book shows increased buying depth, and market makers' Gamma positioning is stabilizing, suggesting structural support is forming. However, the derivatives market remains cautious. The options market Put/Call ratio has risen to a one-year high, with implied volatility increasing, reflecting heightened demand for hedging. Meanwhile, long leverage exposure on Hyperliquid has climbed to a cyclical high, indicating diverging market sentiment.On the price structure front, Bitcoin briefly broke below $58,000 before repeatedly testing support. It currently remains below the critical Gamma Flip zone of around $68,000. The realized price of approximately $53,000 is viewed as a key structural support level. On the macroeconomic front, US non-farm payroll data came in below expectations, pushing back expectations for the timing of interest rate cuts. The broader crypto market remains in a phase of capital rotation and structural competition. (The Block)
According to Glassnode data, long-term holders—wallets that have held coins for at least 155 days—have shifted from net distribution to net accumulation, indicating a recovery in BTC demand. Small and medium-sized wallets are leading a broad trend of buying the dip, while the largest whale wallets remain mostly neutral. Analysts say it is still too early to conclude that the market has entered a full accumulation phase. (CoinDesk).
According to Hyperinsight monitoring, today a total of four whales established long positions in Micron Technology (MU) on Hyperliquid, while only one large trader established a short position, with large market funds overall leaning long.
according to Lookonchain monitoring, Machi Big Brother (@machibigbrother) sold 34 Bored Ape Yacht Club NFTs for 326 ETH ($5.14 million) in the past month, incurring a loss of 399 ETH ($6.31 million). Among them, Bored Ape #6057 was purchased 4 years ago for 76.84 ETH and has now been sold for 7.65 ETH, a loss of 90%.During the same period, his ETH long positions on Hyperliquid were liquidated multiple times. After the most recent liquidation 3 hours ago, his account balance dropped to $81,000.
According to on-chain monitoring, Garrett Jin has again placed a $21.73 million short position in ZEC; part of it has already been executed. Meanwhile, his long BTC position is currently underwater by over $20 million.