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Odaily News Bitcoin has rebounded strongly recently. Analysts believe that record-breaking short squeeze activity, along with policy signals from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, may be pushing the market into a new phase of bull market cycle adjustment.Data shows that Bitcoin has risen approximately 23% over the past week, marking its largest weekly gain since the post-U.S. election rally in November 2024. Crypto market trading activity has also recovered in tandem, with spot and perpetual contract trading volume surging 188%. CME Bitcoin futures volume rose 152%, and the annualized futures basis climbed to 11.1%—the highest level since January 2025. Additionally, Bitcoin ETF products recorded net inflows of approximately 31,740 BTC over the week, the strongest capital inflow since the market peak in October 2025.Vetle Lunde, Head of Research at crypto research firm K33 Research, stated that the early phase of this rally was primarily driven by short covering. On August 19, Bitcoin short positions saw a single-day liquidation scale of $1.37 billion, a record high, followed by another $739 million in short liquidations on August 21. The massive short squeeze pushed open interest in perpetual contracts down to 284,000 BTC, the lowest level since May, while market funding rates also returned to neutral.On the macro front, policy signals from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding increased long-term Treasury buybacks are also viewed by analysts as a market catalyst. K33 believes that the Treasury buyback program could lower long-term interest rates and boost demand for scarce assets. Meanwhile, Bitcoin's correlation with gold has risen, with the 90-day correlation coefficient reaching 0.52—the highest since October 2020—while its correlation with the Nasdaq index has declined to 0.38, a one-year low.Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at crypto investment firm Bitwise Asset Management, believes that Bessent's recent remarks on sanctions against Iran's financial network have further strengthened Bitcoin's investment thesis: as the global financial system becomes increasingly influenced by geopolitics, the value of assets that are decentralized and do not rely on any single nation's financial system may appreciate further. (The Block)
Odaily Odaily News: K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde stated that the Coldcard attack likely drove the movement of approximately 890,000 BTC within 7 days, setting the highest 7-day active supply record for 2026. K33 estimates that around 7,300 addresses had approximately 1,596 BTC stolen at the time the report was prepared. The incident stems from a firmware flaw introduced by Coinkite in March 2021 in Coldcard hardware wallets, which may generate wallet seeds with insufficient randomness. Since July 30, coordinated transfers have removed approximately 1,600 BTC from thousands of addresses, worth over $100 million, and a possible fourth wave of attacks has pushed the total to nearly 2,000 BTC. On-chain data shows that Bitcoin's 7-day hot supply rose from 403,101.95 BTC on July 28 to 797,407.72 BTC on August 4, an increase of approximately 394,306 BTC in one week, or 98%. Sani from Timechainindex.com stated that since the Coldcard hack on Friday, exchanges have seen net inflows of 22,052 BTC. From July 30 to August 5, 39 dormant addresses moved a total of 1,486.09044782 BTC, worth over $95 million. Among them, one address created in 2010 moved 50 BTC, and five addresses created in 2013 collectively moved 620.00100547 BTC.
According to The Block, K33’s latest report states that Bitcoin rebounded approximately 6% last week after two consecutive weeks of sharp declines, currently hovering near $65,000. The report notes that as of June 6, only 218,400 bitcoins—dormant for over two years—were reactivated in 2026, significantly lower than同期 levels over the past two years, indicating weak on-chain selling pressure.
crypto research firm K33 stated the Bitcoin supply held by long-term holders has reached an all-time high, indicating the bear market may be approaching its end. K33 noted a clear downturn in the reactivation of old coins in 2026. As of June 6, only 218,421 Bitcoins had been reactivated, showing significantly reduced on-chain selling pressure. In contrast, 1.18 million Bitcoins had been reactivated during the same period in 2024. K33 believes the decline in old coin activity suggests long-term holders have a reduced willingness to sell, with patient participants continuing to absorb the supply. (The Block)
crypto research firm K33 stated that although Bitcoin has retested its 200-day moving average around $82,000 this month and subsequently fallen by about 6%, the low near $60,000 in February this year may still represent the maximum drawdown of this cycle. K33 Research Head Vetle Lunde pointed out that unlike the bear market rallies in 2014, 2018, and 2022, this market experienced a slow recovery lasting 189 days after breaking below the 200-day moving average. Furthermore, market leverage and risk appetite have not been quickly rebuilt. Therefore, the current trend resembles a moderate correction rather than a precursor to another sharp decline.K33 also noted that institutional fund flows still reflect a defensive sentiment. The latest 13F filings show that institutional investors reduced their holdings by a total of approximately 26,733 BTC in the first quarter, while retail investors increased their holdings by about 19,395 BTC. Neutral strategy institutions like Jane Street and Millennium accounted for most of this reduction. Additionally, Bitcoin ETFs recently recorded the ninth-largest five-day capital outflow since the launch of U.S. spot ETFs. K33 believes this typically occurs when BTC is near the cost basis of ETF holdings, reflecting investors' tendency to cut losses or reduce risk exposure after experiencing significant drawdowns. (The Block)