News linked to both this project and an event.
Odaily News: Investor Mark Cuban and "The Big Short" investor Michael Burry have recently issued warnings about valuation risks in Nvidia (NVDA) and AI stocks. Cuban stated on X that the current AI capital cycle bears similarities to the dot-com bubble of the 1990s, arguing that Nvidia is playing the role the IPO market did back then, fueling continuous capital inflows by supporting customers' purchases of AI chips.Burry, meanwhile, has focused on the rising cost of Nvidia's credit default swaps (CDS), noting that the scale of the "circular financing" driven by Nvidia is expanding. He believes that some AI demand relies on financing support, and future revenue may be built on complex capital cycles.Earlier, Nvidia's stock price fell approximately 5% in a single day, erasing about $250 billion in market value. The IMF and the Bank for International Settlements have also previously flagged potential systemic risks from AI circular financing. However, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang dismissed such criticism as "absurd." (TheStreet)
In its financial system stability assessment report released this month, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that Brazil's cryptocurrency-based cross-border fund flows have been growing steadily since 2017, with their scale now exceeding traditional capital movements. The report indicates that these fund flows are largely driven by stablecoins, which are utilized by both corporations and retail investors for efficiency and tax-related reasons. Stablecoin flows are correlated with international and local investment indicators such as the S&P 500, VIX, and Bitcoin prices, and are also influenced by exchange rates, interest rates, policy uncertainty, and changes in tax policies. The IMF noted that the Central Bank of Brazil has taken measures to regulate the virtual asset service provider (VASP) industry, but gaps remain in areas such as customer legal protection and the segregation of custodial assets. Comprehensive implementation of international standards, including the Travel Rule, is still necessary for anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT). The report points out that Brazil's crypto system is interconnected with the traditional financial system, and regulators need to collaborate with domestic and international counterparts to establish a more robust reporting framework. The Brazilian Congress is preparing to deliberate on Bill 4308/2024, aimed at regulating the status of stablecoins.
According to BeInCrypto, El Salvador's two major opposition parties have officially nominated candidates for the February 2027 presidential election: the Nationalist Republican Alliance (ARENA) nominated former legislator Maytee Iraheta, while the Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) nominated doctor and union leader Rafael Aguirre. Both candidates clearly oppose Bukele's Bitcoin strategy, characterizing it as a fiscal failure. However, Bukele's approval rating remains as high as 94%, and his New Ideas party has also completed nominations, holding a clear advantage for re-election. It is worth noting that El Salvador revoked Bitcoin's legal tender status in February 2025 after reaching a $1.4 billion loan agreement with the IMF, restoring the US dollar as the sole official currency, but the government still maintains the plan to purchase approximately 1 Bitcoin per day, with holdings reaching approximately 7,730 BTC as of July 27.
: On the prediction market platform Polymarket, the probability of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait closing before August 31 has risen to 21%, up from a low of 11% on Monday morning. The probability of a closure before September 30 once rose to 26%. The Yemeni Houthi group, Ansar Allah, has announced a maritime blockade against Saudi Arabia, stating that the operation is based on the principle of "an eye for an eye" and aims to disrupt the flow of Saudi crude oil exports. The relevant passage handles the transit of over 4.5 million barrels of crude oil. The outcome of this prediction contract will be determined based on maritime trade flow data released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) platform, PortWatch. If the 7-day moving average of vessel arrivals at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is equal to or less than 10 on any day between the contract's creation and its expiration date, the contract will be resolved as "Yes."
Odaily News: Nigerian President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has signed an executive order to coordinate virtual asset regulation, enhance cooperation between the country's financial, tax, and capital market institutions, and address the fragmentation of digital asset regulation. The executive order establishes a Virtual Assets Committee composed of heads from Nigeria's major financial regulatory agencies to guide relevant policies. Nigeria's tax authority will update digital asset policies and provide more details on the impact on taxpayers. Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President, stated that the executive order does not create new regulatory agencies nor transfer powers between agencies; each institution retains its statutory duties and independence, and registration requirements will be determined based on the nature of the activity and the assets involved. A June report from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) shows that since 2019, Nigeria has accounted for approximately 60% of stablecoin inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; between July 2023 and June 2024, the country's cryptocurrency inflows reached approximately $59 billion.
According to a post on the official blog of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Tobias Adrian, Director of the IMF's Monetary and Capital Markets Department, wrote that asset tokenization is not merely a technical upgrade but will fundamentally alter the structure of the global financial system. When financial assets are transferred to shared digital ledgers, the three major processes of execution, clearing, and settlement can be completed simultaneously, and risks will shift centrally from the balance sheets of institutions such as banks to platforms and smart contracts. The article also warns that while tokenization eliminates friction, it also removes buffer mechanisms, leading to real-time liquidity demands and accelerated risk transmission. For emerging market countries, the risks of rapid cross-border capital flows and erosion of monetary sovereignty are particularly prominent. The IMF emphasized that current policy choices will determine whether tokenized finance strengthens or fragments the global financial system, and countries need to establish coordination mechanisms as soon as possible on core issues such as the roles of public and private money, interoperability, legal frameworks, and liquidity support.
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel, the Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" has dropped to 25%, a 25% decrease in a single week. The total trading volume for this event has now approached $12 million.The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any date between the market creation and June 30, 2026, is equal to or greater than 60, the market will be resolved as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be resolved as "No." Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.Previously, US and Iranian forces clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump stated earlier today that negotiations with Iran regarding a temporary peace agreement would "yield good results," and he faces a balancing act between potential criticism if Washington agrees to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request. Trump had indicated last Friday that he would make a "final decision," but he postponed it as both sides continue to negotiate details, including Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz waterway (which may require demining first).The Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel continues to monitor the prediction market. See changes before they are priced in.
According to Caixin, Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that the Trump administration’s push for financial deregulation—particularly the relaxation of bank capital requirements and regulatory transparency—is significantly increasing the risk of a future systemic financial crisis in the United States. Rogoff pointed out that one key justification currently advanced for deregulation is to enable traditional banks to remain innovative and competitive against cryptocurrencies—especially U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoins. If cryptocurrency regulation is simultaneously relaxed, combined with deregulation of the traditional financial system, it could trigger a “dual deregulation” risk, ultimately leading to systemic collapse. Although a full-scale banking crisis may not erupt in the short term, the associated risks have clearly risen, and the regulatory balance between stablecoins and the traditional banking system has become a critical vulnerability.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes data showing that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") transiting the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair deal" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He defended potential military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final cleanup work would be completed.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.