News linked to both this project and an event.
According to monitoring by Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel, the Polymarket probability of "Strait of Hormuz returning to normal by June 30" has dropped to 25%, a 25% decrease in a single week. The total trading volume for this event has now approached $12 million.The contract rules for this event are as follows: If the IMF Portwatch reports that the 7-day average number of vessel arrivals at the Strait of Hormuz on any date between the market creation and June 30, 2026, is equal to or greater than 60, the market will be resolved as "Yes"; otherwise, it will be resolved as "No." Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and oil tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.Previously, US and Iranian forces clashed again near the Strait of Hormuz. However, Trump stated earlier today that negotiations with Iran regarding a temporary peace agreement would "yield good results," and he faces a balancing act between potential criticism if Washington agrees to unfreeze billions of dollars in Iranian funds at Tehran's request. Trump had indicated last Friday that he would make a "final decision," but he postponed it as both sides continue to negotiate details, including Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium and how to reopen the Strait of Hormuz waterway (which may require demining first).The Odaily Seer’s Oracle Channel continues to monitor the prediction market. See changes before they are priced in.
According to Caixin, Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), has warned that the Trump administration’s push for financial deregulation—particularly the relaxation of bank capital requirements and regulatory transparency—is significantly increasing the risk of a future systemic financial crisis in the United States. Rogoff pointed out that one key justification currently advanced for deregulation is to enable traditional banks to remain innovative and competitive against cryptocurrencies—especially U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoins. If cryptocurrency regulation is simultaneously relaxed, combined with deregulation of the traditional financial system, it could trigger a “dual deregulation” risk, ultimately leading to systemic collapse. Although a full-scale banking crisis may not erupt in the short term, the associated risks have clearly risen, and the regulatory balance between stablecoins and the traditional banking system has become a critical vulnerability.
Odaily Seer Channel monitoring shows that the probability for Polymarket's "Strait of Hormuz Returns to Normal by May 31" has risen to 68%, up 9% in 24 hours.The contract rules for this event are: If the International Monetary Fund's Portwatch publishes data showing that the 7-day moving average of daily vessel arrivals ("Vessel Arrivals") transiting the Strait of Hormuz is equal to or greater than 60 on any date between the market creation date and May 31, 2026, the market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Daily vessel arrivals include container ships, bulk carriers, roll-on/roll-off ships, general cargo ships, and tankers. Vessels not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.It is reported that US Vice President Vance will travel to Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with Iran. US President Trump stated in a recent phone interview that Iran "will negotiate" and expressed confidence in the potential talks to be held in Pakistan. Trump said they will negotiate, and if they don't, they will face unprecedented problems. He also expressed hope that both sides could reach a "fair deal" and emphasized that Iran will not possess nuclear weapons. He defended potential military action against Iran, saying there was no other choice, and stated that the final cleanup work would be completed.Odaily Seer Channel continues to monitor prediction markets, seeing changes before they are priced in.