News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Crowdfund Insider, Circle’s French subsidiary, Circle Internet Financial Europe SAS (referred to as “Circle France”), received formal authorization from the French Financial Markets Authority (AMF) on April 20 to provide custody and transfer services for its stablecoins USDC and EURC across the entire European Economic Area (EEA). Under Article 60(4) of the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA), this authorization enables Circle France to operate via the “passporting mechanism,” allowing customers in all EEA member states to access these services without requiring additional local licenses. Circle is the largest compliant issuer of electronic money tokens (EMTs) under MiCA regulation in the EU. The authorized custody services cover secure storage and management of clients’ crypto assets, while the transfer functionality supports seamless asset movement. Dante Disparte, Circle’s Chief Strategy Officer and Head of Global Policy and Operations, stated that this milestone reflects Circle’s commitment to operating within Europe’s regulatory framework and supporting the development of trusted digital financial infrastructure in France and across the EU. This authorization builds upon Circle’s prior authorization as an electronic money institution in France.
Garrett Jin, agent representing the “1011 Insider Whale,” stated that Trump’s launch of the so-called “Project Freedom” is not a de-risking signal, but is more likely to act as a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Multiple factors are converging, including energy inventory pressures, enhanced regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic pathways. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals, but their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risks. Overall, investors are advised to maintain a cautious and hedging mindset, paying close attention to the potential disruption of market sentiment by macroeconomic and geopolitical variables.Although the market has interpreted this move as a sign of easing tensions, driving risk assets higher, the underlying structure is more akin to a strategic framework of “limited engagement plus potential response.” The action primarily maintains shipping security through coordinated shipping lanes, insurance support, and military standby, rather than direct escort operations. This approach could, in fact, amplify reactions to specific triggering events.
Garrett Jin, the agent of “1011 Insider Whale,” authored an analysis stating that Trump’s so-called “Project Freedom” is not a signal of risk mitigation but rather a “fuse” for a new wave of uncertainty. Although the market interprets it as a de-escalation and has driven risk assets higher, its underlying structure more closely resembles a “limited engagement + potential response” strategic framework. This initiative primarily maintains maritime security through coordination of shipping lanes, insurance support, and military readiness—rather than direct naval escort—potentially amplifying market reactions once triggered by specific events. Meanwhile, multiple factors—including energy inventory pressures, heightened regional military deployments, shifts in policy and legal environments, and tightening diplomatic channels—are converging. Individually, these variables do not constitute definitive signals; however, their concentration within the current time window may elevate market volatility risk. Overall, investors are advised to maintain caution and adopt hedging strategies, closely monitoring how macroeconomic and geopolitical variables could potentially disrupt market sentiment.
According to Fortune magazine, as Kalshi and Polymarket accelerate coordination with the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to crack down on insider trading, Robin Hanson—a founding theorist of prediction markets and economics professor at George Mason University—publicly voiced his disapproval, stating that “insider participation in trading” is precisely the core value underpinning prediction markets. Earlier, the U.S. Department of Justice charged a U.S. military servicemember with using classified intelligence to place bets on Polymarket regarding a Venezuelan raid operation, illegally profiting approximately $400,000. In response, Robin Hanson remarked: “You want them to trade. You want prices to be as accurate as possible—the market’s purpose is to aid decision-making.” Robin Hanson argues that, like all economic models, insiders will trade: informed participants buy “yes” contracts, thereby driving prices upward toward the truth. If insiders refrain from betting, the information-discovery function of prediction markets would be severely weakened, and such markets would fail to reflect real-world outcomes faster than news media or public opinion polls. Insider trading is likewise widespread in traditional financial markets, yet regulators address only a tiny fraction of cases. Prediction markets, like investigative journalism, are fundamentally mechanisms designed to accelerate information disclosure—and thus should not be subject to blanket prohibition. As a compromise, Robin Hanson proposes: any legislation banning government employees from participating in prediction market trading should, by the same logic, also prohibit them from speaking with journalists.
Odaily, John Wang, Kalshi's Head of Cryptocurrency, responded on X to the controversy surrounding insider trading in prediction markets, stating: "I believe this is a very important issue, but it is not unique to prediction markets. The stock market is essentially a prediction market for a company's future performance, and there has been a long history of exploration and iteration regarding the boundary between 'legitimate information advantages' and 'illegal use of material non-public information.' The role of regulation is to find this balance. Just like the stock market, insider trading is a complex problem that requires refined solutions, but it is not insurmountable. I also agree that when operating at scale, introducing mechanisms such as KYC and market surveillance is very necessary to help prevent insider trading. That's why we have adopted this approach at Kalshi from day one."
According to Business Insider, U.S. Army Special Forces Sergeant Major Gannon Van Dyke has been charged with allegedly using classified military information to place bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket regarding the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro—netting over $400,000 in illegal profits. Notably, Van Dyke had previously attempted to open an account on rival platform Kalshi but was rejected due to failure to pass identity verification and KYC checks. Polymarket stated it proactively reported the suspicious trading activity to law enforcement authorities and has fully cooperated with the investigation. This case is regarded as the first major insider-trading criminal prosecution in the prediction market space, reigniting market concerns about insider-trading risks on prediction platforms.
Polymarket posted on X platform, saying, "Last month, we released enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we discovered that a user was trading based on government classified information, we referred the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperated with their investigation. Polymarket has zero tolerance for insider trading, and today's arrest proves the system is effective."The arrest referred to by Polymarket involved a special forces soldier who participated in the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and was taken into custody by U.S. federal authorities on Thursday. The soldier is suspected of profiting over $400,000 by betting on Maduro's removal from power. Sources say federal investigators believe that the commando placed over $33,000 in bets on the prediction market Polymarket just hours before President Trump announced Maduro's capture in January.For details on the insider trading related to the Maduro capture operation on Polymarket, please see When War is Settled Before the News is Out: How Prediction Markets "Priced In" Maduro's Capture 6 Days Early
Odaily News: New York State Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order on Wednesday prohibiting state government employees from using non-public information to trade in prediction markets or assisting others in profiting from it. This move aims to address growing concerns over "insider betting" in prediction markets.According to the executive order, all government officials appointed by the governor or under her jurisdiction, as well as members of public agencies, are prohibited from using any non-public information obtained in the course of their duties to seek profits or avoid losses in prediction markets or similar services. They are also barred from assisting others in such activities. The governor mentioned in the document that the current "rapid expansion of prediction markets" has drawn regulatory attention.The day before, Illinois Governor JB Pritzker also issued a similar executive order, banning state government personnel from using non-public information to participate in prediction market betting.Meanwhile, prediction market platform Kalshi disclosed that it has launched investigations into three insider trading cases involving candidates and has imposed fines and trading suspensions on the relevant individuals. One of those penalized is Mark Moran, a candidate in the Virginia State Senate Democratic primary, who was penalized for betting on his own campaign and stated he "hoped to be caught."
According to The Information, prediction market Polymarket has announced audits of several early-stage startups integrated into its ecosystem. These startups had previously been accused of identifying and distributing suspected “insider trading accounts” to steer users into copy-trading those accounts. Among the implicated projects are Kreo—which touts itself as a service for “detecting insider accounts ahead of time”—and Polycool—which offers an “insider trading guide.” By pushing suspicious account trading data to users, these platforms have amplified market concerns about insider trading and market manipulation. Polymarket’s move signals its strengthened compliance oversight of its ecosystem, following sustained external scrutiny over potential insider trading risks in prediction markets.
According to the Nikkei, Japan’s Cabinet formally approved an amendment to the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act (FIEA) on April 10. This amendment marks the first time that crypto assets (virtual currencies) have been brought under Japan’s financial instruments regulatory framework. It explicitly prohibits insider trading based on non-public information and requires issuers to make annual disclosures. Regulatory authority over crypto assets will thus shift formally from the Payment Services Act to the FIEA; accordingly, registered operators’ official designation will change from “Crypto Asset Exchange Operators” to “Crypto Asset Trading Operators.” Regarding penalties, the maximum term of imprisonment for unlicensed crypto asset sales operations has been increased from three years to ten years, and the maximum fine has risen from ¥3 million to ¥10 million.
According to an article published by Caixin titled “Financial Innovation or Insider Trading? The Rise and Controversy of Polymarket,” when insider information can be openly monetized, the boundary of prediction markets has already become blurred—raising questions about whether such markets are merely “gambling” disguised as finance, or even涉嫌 insider trading. Yet regardless of the legal debate over whether such activities constitute gambling, the fact that Polymarket uses the USDC stablecoin for settlement and delivery itself poses a significant legal risk for participants within China. Previously, U.S. Senators Jeff Merkley and Amy Klobuchar introduced the “End Prediction Market Corruption Act,” which prohibits the President, Vice President, and members of Congress from trading on prediction markets and requires that the prediction market trading activities of their spouses and dependents be included in annual financial disclosures.