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Bybit Weekly Report: Probability of Rate Hike Rises to 60%; Peace Talks Cannot Rescue the Crypto Market; DVOL Hits All-Time Low—Caution Advised

Bybit’s latest options weekly report states that BTC rebounded after finding support at the dense $74,000 level last week and is now consolidating near $77,000. A key macro turning point: Nomura has withdrawn its rate-cut expectations, and the CME FedWatch tool shows the probability of a rate hike rising to 60%, completely breaking the “ceasefire → rate cuts → BTC rally” logic chain. Barclays, Goldman Sachs, ING, and JPMorgan all confirm that the rise in long-end yields is driven by three structural factors—debt expansion, AI-related investment, and an increase in the neutral interest rate—unrelated to geopolitical tensions. Bullish catalysts continue to accumulate (SpaceX holding 18,712 BTC, the ARMA reserve proposal, and the CLARITY Act), yet price remains unmoved. DVOL has fallen to ~35%, a historical extreme; no strategy is recommended for now—await DVOL’s recovery above 45% before entering.

Qivalis Euro Stablecoin Project Gains Support from 37 European Banks and Has Applied for a License with the Dutch Central Bank

According to the Financial Times, Amsterdam-based company Qivalis has secured support from 37 European banks—including BNP Paribas, ING, and UniCredit—for its yet-to-launch euro-pegged stablecoin, making it the single euro stablecoin project with the largest number of European backers to date. Newly added supporters include ABN AMRO, Intesa Sanpaolo, and Rabobank. Qivalis has applied for a license from the Dutch Central Bank (De Nederlandsche Bank), aiming for approval in the second half of this year, and plans to complete operational readiness upon license issuance.

Deputy Governor of the Bank of France Publicly Disagrees with Christine Lagarde, Strongly Advocates for Public-Private Collaboration in Developing the Digital Euro

According to CoinDesk, Denis Beau, Deputy Governor of the Bank of France, has publicly called on Europe’s public and private sectors to jointly advance the development of euro-tokenized money to counter the dominance of U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoins. This stance stands in clear contrast to that of European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde, who remains cautious toward private stablecoins—citing financial stability risks posed by USDT, USDC, and others—and favors a central bank–led digital euro initiative expected to launch in 2029. Beau outlined a “triple objective” for Europe’s development: aligning with central bank monetary services; enabling regulated institutions to issue pan-euro tokenized private money; and strengthening the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) regulatory framework. His position closely aligns with that of the Qivalis consortium—a group comprising 12 major European banks, including ING, BBVA, and BNP Paribas—which plans to launch a private digital euro this year. Beau also revealed that the eurosystem will roll out its first tokenized wholesale central bank money service before year-end.

Qivalis Partners with 12 European Banks to Advance Euro-Backed Stablecoin, Expected Launch in H2 2026

According to CoinDesk, custody provider Fireblocks will handle the issuance and distribution of the Qivalis consortium’s euro-pegged stablecoin. The project is expected to launch in the second half of 2026, under supervision by the Dutch Central Bank and in compliance with the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA). Qivalis members include 12 European banks, such as BBVA, BNP Paribas, ING, and UniCredit. The report notes that the current stablecoin market size stands at approximately $30.5 billion, of which about 99% consists of U.S. dollar–pegged stablecoins, while euro-pegged stablecoins account for roughly $650 million. Qivalis aims to boost institutional adoption of euro stablecoins through a compliant product.

French Finance Minister Calls for Expansion of Euro-Backed Stablecoins, Marking Major Shift in Policy Stance

According to CoinDesk, French Finance Minister Roland Lescure publicly stated on April 17 that Europe needs more euro-denominated stablecoins and strongly encouraged EU banks to explore launching tokenized deposits. Lescure explicitly backed the Qivalis consortium—a group of 12 European banks including BBVA, ING, UniCredit, and BNP Paribas—that plans to launch a euro-pegged stablecoin in the second half of 2026, aiming to counter U.S. dominance in digital payments. He also noted that the current scale of euro-pegged stablecoins remains far smaller than that of dollar-pegged stablecoins—a situation he described as “unsatisfactory.” This statement marks a clear departure from France’s previous hardline regulatory stance: former Finance Minister Le Maire had declared that private stablecoins “have no place in Europe,” while Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau has repeatedly warned that stablecoins pose risks of monetary privatization.