News linked to both this project and an event.
According to Odaily, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market price from its realized value (the average cost of each coin since its last on-chain transaction), helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the green zone historically considered the "accumulation range" (around 0 and below). Historically, the bottom of every major bear market has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major crash in 2011-2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022, each time paving the way for a subsequent bull run.However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still possess substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the MVRV of short-term and long-term holders converge, a cyclical bottom tends to form (as was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022).Although it is difficult to precisely predict the market bottom, after the hundreds of billions of dollars in sell-offs last week, conditions that have historically signaled a rebound are gradually emerging. This suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be approaching its end, and investors can monitor on-chain MVRV indicators and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)
According to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai_9684xtpa), a16z (@a16zcrypto) may have become the sixth-largest HYPE holder—and the largest external holder, assuming the top five holders are all entities within Hype’s own ecosystem. Data shows that a16z initiated large-scale accumulation of HYPE in August 2025, acquiring a total of 9.18 million HYPE tokens (approximately $356 million) at an average purchase price of $38.77 per token. After deducting amounts transferred to exchanges and market makers, a16z still holds 8.844 million HYPE tokens, distributed across dozens of addresses. Within just the past 11 hours, a16z added another 206,000 HYPE tokens (approximately $9.95 million) to its holdings. Since April 16, it has accumulated 2.35 million HYPE tokens (approximately $102 million); and since 2026, it has accumulated 4.92 million HYPE tokens (approximately $183 million). At current prices, its unrealized profit per token stands at $79.29 million.
: Analyst Murphy posted on X platform, stating that based on the relationship between the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP)" and price action, Bitcoin may currently be in the formation stage of a bottom structure.Murphy pointed out that previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by BTC breaking through and trading around the 1-3m_RP cost basis line, but the patterns differed across cycles: In 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around this cost basis line for an extended period; in 2019-2020, it directly triggered a mini bull run after the breakout; in 2022-2023, it experienced a second retest to confirm support before rebounding again.Murphy stated that since BTC broke through this cost basis line on April 15, it has continued to trade above it. Regarding future trends, he believes the focus is not on predicting specific scenarios, but rather on preparing position and trading response plans for different market situations in advance.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.