News linked to both this project and an event.
Analyst Crypto Dan noted that historically, when the on-chain share of Bitcoin held for over 18 months rises and then begins to decline, it has typically been followed by a strong rally. He believes the market has already entered a bullish cycle but remains in its early stages, with the aforementioned signal yet to emerge. Additionally, the crypto market has not yet become overheated, as most investors are maintaining a wait-and-see stance, suggesting that the true uptrend may not have started just yet.
according to Arkham monitoring, based on its identified official wallet associated with Justin Sun, Justin Sun currently holds nearly 3% of the PEPE token supply, worth approximately $51.25 million, and appears to have become the largest individual holder of PEPE. The relevant PEPE tokens were transferred into his wallet over the past 10 days, withdrawn in two transactions from Poloniex on October 17 and 26, totaling 11.85 trillion tokens, valued at $48.76 million at the time of withdrawal, with current unrealized gains exceeding $2 million. This may have made him the largest individual holder of PEPE.
Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that since July 30, the long-term holder supply of Bitcoin has fallen from 16.41 million to 16.06 million, a cumulative decrease of 345,000 BTC, or roughly 2%. Over the past week, holdings dropped by 9,000, but increased by 40,000 in the most recent three days. The Long-Term Holder Spending Frequency indicator shows that between October 6 and 10, it reached 13 days out of the past 15 with declining holdings, marking a near-one-year high; as of October 19, this figure had receded to 10 days. At the current BTC price of approximately $82,800, the long-term holders' average cost basis stands at around $48,600, yielding an overall unrealized gain of roughly 70%. Adler suggests that if the number of days with declining holdings over the past 15 days drops further to around 7, the long-term holders' spending frequency would noticeably decrease.
Odaily News: According to monitoring by Guy Young, over the past 48 hours, users noticed that a large investor's wallet was moving tokens. Ethena founder and CEO Guy Young stated that the transfers in question are security precautions related to recent hardware wallet concerns, and do not represent tokens being sold after transfer, nor do they indicate that the investor is dumping their holdings.
Odaily News — Crypto analyst Darkfost stated that Bitcoin's Long-Term Holder (LTH) SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio) has climbed back above its annual average of 1.10 and continues to hold above that level.Data shows that long-term holders have realized an average return of approximately 10% over the past year. Currently, the weekly average LTH SOPR stands at 1.25, and the monthly average at 1.16, both above the annual average, indicating that long-term holders are returning to a profitable state.Darkfost noted that a similar situation also appeared at the end of the previous bear market, when the return of profits for long-term holders became one of the signals of improving market conditions. He believes that the emergence of moderate profits in the market is generally a positive factor, helping to raise investors' expectations for future market conditions.
Odaily News: Trader Killa stated on X platform that Bitcoin short-term holder (STH) supply recently reached "overheated" levels, a situation similar to the price action in 2023 after the market broke away from the macro bottom, potentially serving as another signal of market bottom formation.Killa pointed out that after Bitcoin short-term holder supply reached similar highs in 2023, BTC price continued to rise and maintained an uptrend in higher timeframe (HTF) trends. The current market structure is quite similar to previous cycles, and investors should not overly rely on the Fear and Greed Index to judge market direction. Killa stated that market sentiment may remain irrational for extended periods, and short-term sentiment indicators do not necessarily reflect long-term trends.
Odaily reports: Bitcoin has risen 44% this quarter to nearly $85,000, with some holders beginning to take profits. Bitfinex data shows that recent BTC holders have realized cumulative profits of approximately $2.4 billion, while during historical market tops, single-day realized profits typically reached $7–10 billion. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen cumulative net inflows of $2.84 billion over the past 6 trading days, exceeding holder realized profits during the same period, with cumulative net inflows approaching $800 million year-to-date. Bitfinex also noted that approximately 410,000 ETH flowed out of exchanges over the past month, and U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs attracted a cumulative $680 million over 4 consecutive trading days, indicating that strong capital support remains in the recent market. (CoinDesk)
According to on-chain analyst Aunt Ai's monitoring, an address (0x7d7...3b54a) bought $500,000 worth of 4stock at an average price of $0.05078 five days ago, and sold and liquidated it at $0.01983 four hours ago, losing $304,000, with assets shrinking by 60.7%.
Odaily reports, according to Lookonchain monitoring, a whale (0x0c1...6Cbe) spent $1.04 million over the past 10 days to buy 20.31 million MEME at an average price of $0.051. The current position value is $930,000, making it the largest MEME holder.
Odaily News: According to Darkfost monitoring, this cycle may be the most active one for Bitcoin long-term holders. Related changes can be observed through the CDD heatmap, an indicator that tracks the number of days Bitcoin was held before being spent or transferred. Long-term holders moving Bitcoin is usually associated with an intent to sell. The increased activity among long-term holders in this cycle may be attributed to greater market liquidity brought by spot ETFs and companies building Bitcoin treasury reserves. However, a rise in CDD does not only appear at market tops; it may also reflect capitulation by some holders. Coinbase previously moved 800,000 BTC, a large portion of which had been held for more than 6 months. Such asset migrations can also cause a short-term spike in CDD, but they are sporadic events. Currently, with Bitcoin's recent rally, long-term holder activity has increased slightly, possibly because some holders are looking to take quick profits; but overall, related activity in 2026 remains fairly quiet, with long-term holders still waiting.
Odaily News - The unrealized profits of Bitcoin short-term holder whales reached $9.07 billion on September 4, setting a new all-time high since this metric began being recorded in 2016. The figure fell to $7.51 billion on September 5, still ranking among the top five highest readings during the observation period.Unrealized profits reflect the difference between an asset's current market value and its on-chain cost basis, and do not indicate that holders have sold or realized those gains. Short-term holders typically refer to Bitcoin that has been recently transferred and held for no more than 155 days, with the metric further focusing on large-scale holders.On September 7, Bitcoin traded in the $79,300 to $79,500 range at one point, reaching an intraday high of $80,537 before slipping below $79,000, putting pressure on the immediate support level near $79,013. If that level fails to hold, the next support zone lies between $76,300 and $77,000. (Bitcoin.com News)
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted on the X platform that the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) has recently undergone a noteworthy change. This metric measures profit realization among short-term holders whose holding period is less than six months, and it has now risen above 1 to approximately 1.01, marking the first time in over a year that it has entered profitable territory.
CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha stated that the 60-day accumulation for Bitcoin holders in the 100–1,000 BTC range reached 73,300 BTC, marking the highest level since April 21. Meanwhile, the group holding over 10,000 BTC continues to maintain significant positive accumulation, amounting to 43,300 BTC.
Odaily News According to on-chain analyst Ai Yi's monitoring, the top holder on the Monero native network has accumulated profits exceeding $3.15 million in just 23 days by betting on XMR's price increase. The position was opened on August 9, reaching a peak of 34,000 XMR, valued at approximately $16.72 million. Last night, the holder closed half of the position, banking $1.637 million in profits, and currently retains a 4x leveraged position of 16,000 XMR, with unrealized gains exceeding $1.53 million.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the share of supply held by Short-Term Holders (STH) in the Bitcoin market is declining significantly, with the current distribution as follows: less than 1 day accounts for 1.2%, 1 day to 1 week accounts for 2%, 1 week to 1 month accounts for 5.6%, 1 month to 3 months accounts for 6.7%, and 3 months to 6 months accounts for 8.1%. He believes that this trend usually appears at the end of a bear market: on one hand, it indicates that the number of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is increasing, with fewer coins in active circulation in the market; on the other hand, it also indicates that new demand has not yet significantly returned.
Odaily News Crypto analyst Murphy stated on X that on-chain data reveals a rare large-scale movement of coins by Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) recently. Over the past two days, more than 65,000 BTC have moved on-chain each day (excluding internal transfers within the same entity), leading to a notable decline in LTH net positions.Data shows that LTH net positions had begun to deviate from their previous continuous growth trend since May this year, entering a plateau in July, with the recent large-scale transfers being relatively uncommon over the past year. Among these, approximately 14,000 BTC flowed into exchanges. Some of the funds include a transaction where a company under Trump's umbrella transferred 2,628 BTC to Crypto.com.Currently, aside from the portion flowing into exchanges, the destination and purpose of the remaining coins reduced by long-term holders remain unclear. Murphy stated that potential risks currently affecting the BTC market include: 1) Shifts in Fed monetary policy and rising rate hike expectations; 2) Inflationary pressure from Middle East tensions and oil price changes; 3) Valuation concentration in the AI sector and financing risks behind high capital expenditures; 4) Re-crowding of yen carry trade positions.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that data shows Bitcoin is shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders. The share of Short-Term Holders (STH) has dropped to 23%, the lowest level since the bottoming phase from 2022 to 2023; meanwhile, the share of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is approaching historical highs.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that data shows the volume of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) inflows to exchanges recently reached a phased high. Based on the 90-day average, current long-term holder inflows account for 5.1% of total exchange inflows, approaching historical highs, surpassed only by the level of approximately 5.5% in 2020.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH, those holding coins for over 6 months) have reached a new all-time high, currently exceeding 16.3 million BTC. Their average cost basis is approximately $49,400, yielding only about 30% in unrealized profit at the current price, which is relatively low. In comparison, the net unrealized profit for long-term holders reached as high as approximately 340% in January 2025.Darkfost also noted that towards the end of the last bear market, long-term holders were collectively in a state of approximately 20% unrealized loss, and the market ultimately experienced a deeper correction. This suggests that the market could still see further corrections in the future, potentially pushing long-term holders back into loss territory. However, this is not necessarily a guaranteed repetition of historical patterns. He advises investors to prepare for both market rallies and corrections.
Currently, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) at a loss has exceeded the level during the FTX collapse and is approaching the 2018 bear market phase. The current Bitcoin Realized Price is approximately $50,000. Historically, every cycle has retested the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, so there remains a possibility of retesting this level in the future.