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CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr stated that data shows Bitcoin is shifting from short-term speculators to long-term holders. The share of Short-Term Holders (STH) has dropped to 23%, the lowest level since the bottoming phase from 2022 to 2023; meanwhile, the share of Long-Term Holders (LTH) is approaching historical highs.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost posted that data shows the volume of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) inflows to exchanges recently reached a phased high. Based on the 90-day average, current long-term holder inflows account for 5.1% of total exchange inflows, approaching historical highs, surpassed only by the level of approximately 5.5% in 2020.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated on platform X that the holdings of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH, those holding coins for over 6 months) have reached a new all-time high, currently exceeding 16.3 million BTC. Their average cost basis is approximately $49,400, yielding only about 30% in unrealized profit at the current price, which is relatively low. In comparison, the net unrealized profit for long-term holders reached as high as approximately 340% in January 2025.Darkfost also noted that towards the end of the last bear market, long-term holders were collectively in a state of approximately 20% unrealized loss, and the market ultimately experienced a deeper correction. This suggests that the market could still see further corrections in the future, potentially pushing long-term holders back into loss territory. However, this is not necessarily a guaranteed repetition of historical patterns. He advises investors to prepare for both market rallies and corrections.
Currently, the supply of Bitcoin held by long-term holders (LTH) at a loss has exceeded the level during the FTX collapse and is approaching the 2018 bear market phase. The current Bitcoin Realized Price is approximately $50,000. Historically, every cycle has retested the Long-Term Holder Realized Price, so there remains a possibility of retesting this level in the future.
the overall profitability of the Bitcoin market is improving, but on-chain data suggests it is still insufficient to confirm the start of a new bull market, with the risk of another downturn remaining.Data from CryptoQuant shows that Bitcoin's Supply in Profit has risen to 57.5%. This metric represents the proportion of BTC supply whose current market price is higher than its acquisition cost. It has rebounded significantly from the 2026 low of 46.2% on June 30, now approaching 60%. However, the recovery of the supply in profit still needs sustained validation. Historical cycles indicate that the true end of a bear market typically requires two conditions to be met simultaneously:First, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of the Long-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (LTH-SOPR) must consistently remain above 1 and not drop below it for several weeks.Second, Bitcoin's Supply in Profit needs to stabilize above 64%.Analysts point out that this cycle has already seen one "false breakout." Between April 28 and June 1 this year, the average LTH-SOPR stayed above 1 for 35 consecutive days, while the Supply in Profit briefly rose to 67%. However, the market subsequently declined again. Currently, the 30-day SMA of the LTH-SOPR has been below 1 for over 50 consecutive days, remaining a key risk signal for assessing the strength of the market recovery.While the proportion of BTC in profit is improving, the market needs further confirmation regarding long-term holder behavior and changes in the profit structure before determining whether the current rebound will genuinely transition into a new upward cycle. (Cointelegraph)
Blockworks' Solana Q2 2026 Token Holder Report indicates that the scale of on-chain tokenized asset trading reached a new high this quarter, hitting $5.8 billion, a 114% increase quarter-over-quarter. Among this, tokenized stock trading accounted for $4.8 billion, representing 97% of the entire network's tokenized equity trading volume, with institutional demand for RWA becoming the core growth driver.Dragged down by the ebbing tide of the meme coin market, Solana's real economic revenue decreased by 43% quarter-over-quarter to $51 million, and DEX spot trading volume fell back to $160.8 billion. However, the funding side remained robust, with SOL spot ETPs seeing a net inflow of $120 million and total staked amount reaching 427 million SOL, accounting for two-thirds of the total supply. Going forward, Solana will implement the Alpenglow upgrade and related SIMD proposals to adjust inflation and token burning rules, enhancing SOL's value capture capabilities.
Glassnode stated that the extent to which long-term holders dominate selling pressure can be assessed by observing exchange fund flows. The indicator "Long-Term Holder/Short-Term Holder Exchange Realized Profit/Loss Relative Ratio" shows that among the funds currently flowing into exchanges, over 65% come from long-term holders selling at a loss.
According to a post by Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins), Head of Research at Galaxy Research, metrics related to Bitcoin long-term holders have all reached all-time highs: Supply held for ≥10 years accounts for 17.7% Long-term holder holdings reach 16.75 million coins Long-term holder Realized Market Cap reaches $836.4 billion Long-term holder average cost basis reaches $50,000 The above data indicates that a large amount of holdings are firmly locked by long-term holders; even though the average price has reached $50,000, they refuse to sell. The market's actual circulating supply continues to tighten, and long-term holder behavior is building solid bottom support for Bitcoin prices.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated in a post that the Bitcoin price has been below the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (STH Cost Basis) for more than 9 consecutive months. Historically, such prolonged phases of short-term holder losses are often highly correlated with bear market cycles. Currently, the Bitcoin short-term holder cost basis is approximately $70,700 and continues to act as a resistance level above. The market trend in May already reflected this pressure, when BTC surged to near $82,000 to test the region before quickly encountering a pullback.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler released a weekly analysis report. According to his Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Pressure Model, the current buying and selling pressure from short-term holders is cooling down slightly, but buying power remains dominant.
CryptoQuant analyst Axel Adler Jr. stated that Bitcoin short-term holders' realized pressure model has once again shifted to a buyer-dominated stance at a low point, mirroring the rebound pattern following the correction in February. The current buyer pressure score is approximately 30%, higher than the seller pressure of 22%. Seller pressure has compressed to a multi-month low, with coins transferring from short-term holders to stronger buyers, consistent with the characteristics of an accumulation phase.Bitcoin is currently priced at $63,900, near the lower bound of the short-term holder cost basis range around $61,600. This is about 4% higher than the latest buyer cost basis and nearly 10% lower than the comprehensive cost basis of $71,000. Adler Jr. pointed out that as long as the $61,600 lower boundary holds, the demand structure remains intact; if this level is lost, the newest holders will also fall into losses.
According to The Block, Glassnode's latest on-chain data shows that Bitcoin has been trading below the realized market mean ($76,600) and the short-term holder cost basis ($72,200) for five consecutive months, marking one of the longest deep value periods in its history. Daily average realized losses for long-term holders reached $280 million, the highest since December 2022, accounting for 43% of the total on-chain realized value. Spot Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of $84.86 million on July 8, while Ethereum ETFs saw a net inflow of $70.48 million on the same day, marking five consecutive days of positive inflows. In terms of derivatives, the options open interest put/call ratio dropped to 0.56, the lowest in 2026, while perpetual funding rates remained below neutral levels, indicating the market overall holds a cautiously bullish positioning. In terms of geopolitics, the US-Iran ceasefire agreement collapsed, and the U.S. Central Command carried out retaliatory strikes against Iran, causing Bitcoin's weekly gains to narrow from 9.4% to approximately 5%. Analysts pointed out that the continued cooling of long-term holder selling pressure, stabilization of institutional capital flows, and the price reclaiming the realized market mean are the three prerequisite conditions for the market to enter a bull market.
Glassnode's latest weekly report states that Bitcoin has consistently traded below the Realized Market Mean and Short-Term Holder Cost Basis over the past five months, remaining in a deep value zone, indicating that although the market bottoming process is advancing, it is not yet complete. On-chain data shows that Long-Term Holder loss realization accounts for 43% of total Realized Value, with the recent daily average loss realization peak rising to $280 million, the highest level since December 2022, indicating that selling pressure has not yet significantly cooled.
CryptoQuant analyst Zizcrypto stated that data shows the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Realized Price Year-on-Year (YoY) indicator has continued to weaken since turning negative in mid-March, falling further from approximately -2.4% to -24% as of June 23. This means the current short-term holder realized price is about 24% lower than it was one year ago, reflecting a continued decline in the momentum of short-term holders’ cost basis and relatively weak speculative participation in the market.
According to The Block, K33’s latest report states that Bitcoin rebounded approximately 6% last week after two consecutive weeks of sharp declines, currently hovering near $65,000. The report notes that as of June 6, only 218,400 bitcoins—dormant for over two years—were reactivated in 2026, significantly lower than同期 levels over the past two years, indicating weak on-chain selling pressure.
According to Odaily, a key on-chain indicator for Bitcoin, the Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score (MVRV Z-Score), is approaching the typical threshold seen at historical bear market bottoms. This metric measures the deviation of Bitcoin's market price from its realized value (the average cost of each coin since its last on-chain transaction), helping investors determine whether the asset is overvalued or undervalued.Data shows that the current MVRV Z-Score stands at 0.24, approaching the upper boundary of the green zone historically considered the "accumulation range" (around 0 and below). Historically, the bottom of every major bear market has occurred when this indicator touched or briefly dipped into the green zone: during the first major crash in 2011-2012, in 2014, at the end of 2018, and in the second half of 2022, each time paving the way for a subsequent bull run.However, the absolute bottom has not yet been confirmed. On-chain data shows that the Short-Term Holder MVRV (STH-MVRV) is 0.84, while the Long-Term Holder MVRV (LTH-MVRV) remains as high as 1.29, indicating that long-term holders still possess substantial unrealized profits. Historically, when the MVRV of short-term and long-term holders converge, a cyclical bottom tends to form (as was the case in 2015, 2019, and 2022).Although it is difficult to precisely predict the market bottom, after the hundreds of billions of dollars in sell-offs last week, conditions that have historically signaled a rebound are gradually emerging. This suggests that the Bitcoin bear market may be approaching its end, and investors can monitor on-chain MVRV indicators and changes in holder behavior to identify potential buying opportunities. (CoinDesk)
According to on-chain analyst Ai Aunt (@ai_9684xtpa), a16z (@a16zcrypto) may have become the sixth-largest HYPE holder—and the largest external holder, assuming the top five holders are all entities within Hype’s own ecosystem. Data shows that a16z initiated large-scale accumulation of HYPE in August 2025, acquiring a total of 9.18 million HYPE tokens (approximately $356 million) at an average purchase price of $38.77 per token. After deducting amounts transferred to exchanges and market makers, a16z still holds 8.844 million HYPE tokens, distributed across dozens of addresses. Within just the past 11 hours, a16z added another 206,000 HYPE tokens (approximately $9.95 million) to its holdings. Since April 16, it has accumulated 2.35 million HYPE tokens (approximately $102 million); and since 2026, it has accumulated 4.92 million HYPE tokens (approximately $183 million). At current prices, its unrealized profit per token stands at $79.29 million.
: Analyst Murphy posted on X platform, stating that based on the relationship between the "1-3 month short-term holder cost basis (1-3m_RP)" and price action, Bitcoin may currently be in the formation stage of a bottom structure.Murphy pointed out that previous bear market bottoms were accompanied by BTC breaking through and trading around the 1-3m_RP cost basis line, but the patterns differed across cycles: In 2015-2016, BTC oscillated around this cost basis line for an extended period; in 2019-2020, it directly triggered a mini bull run after the breakout; in 2022-2023, it experienced a second retest to confirm support before rebounding again.Murphy stated that since BTC broke through this cost basis line on April 15, it has continued to trade above it. Regarding future trends, he believes the focus is not on predicting specific scenarios, but rather on preparing position and trading response plans for different market situations in advance.
According to The Block, Julio Moreno, Research Director at on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, released a report on May 8 stating that Bitcoin has surged over 20% since early April, reaching a three-month high. However, the firm characterizes this rally as a “bear market bounce” and warns that profit-taking pressure may intensify further. On the data front, Bitcoin holders’ daily realized profit reached 14,600 BTC on May 4—the highest level since December 10, 2025. Meanwhile, the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH-SOPR) has remained consistently above 1.00 since mid-April, indicating the market has entered a sustained profit-taking phase. On a 30-day rolling basis, holders’ net realized profit turned positive at +20,000 BTC—the first time since December 22, 2025—after net losses plunged as deep as -398,000 BTC between February and March. Nonetheless, Moreno notes that the current net profit level of +20,000 BTC remains far below the historical 130,000–200,000 BTC threshold typically required to confirm a bull market transition, reinforcing the view that this is a “bear market bounce” rather than a structural trend reversal. Additionally, the current unrealized profit ratio stands at approximately 18%; historical experience shows that when this indicator rises to elevated levels, holders tend to sell to lock in gains, increasing correction risk.
According to CoinDesk, Bitcoin has risen from approximately $63,000 to over $80,000 in the past three months, with multiple key indicators now converging on an $85,000 target. On-chain, BTC has broken above two critical support levels—the “Realized Market Value” ($78,200) and the “Short-Term Holder Cost Basis” ($79,100). Research firm Glassnode notes that the next resistance level lies near the Active Realized Price of $85,200. In the futures market, funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, signaling a clear retreat of prior large-scale short pressure and rising risk of a short squeeze. In the options market, market makers hold roughly $2 billion in “short gamma” exposure near $82,000; rising prices will compel them to continuously hedge by buying BTC, generating positive feedback. However, analysts caution that Bitcoin remains highly correlated with U.S. tech equities—should equity markets shift toward risk-aversion, upward momentum could be dampened.